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Flying Dutchman

  • #2,221
  • Jul 10, 2022 5:48am Jul 10, 2022 5:48am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Sounds ridiculous but G$/GY close is already known that's why market zoomed up after hitting day low - it had to! Same with bitcoin, last week close is already known that's why market traded one way towards the target close.{image}
Am I right that you know the CLOSES (but can't predict the (exact) L's and H's...)
That's amazing...
  • #2,222
  • Jul 10, 2022 6:37am Jul 10, 2022 6:37am
Quoting Onra
{quote} Am I right that you know the CLOSES (but can't predict the (exact) L's and H's...) That's amazing...
need to refine my interpretation on your conversations. If i miss a hint or clue even slightly, it will cause more drawdown if i don't understood CORRECTLY.

Learn your subtle massage here hi Onra and sir BW.
How is possible to know the close beforehand ? (it not happened yet)

and Onra asking another new questions about 'predicting' day high and day low ? what is that ?

need 2 years to get sir George TARGET theory 'correctly'.
English is difficult some time to understand.
  • #2,223
  • Edited 7:29am Jul 10, 2022 6:43am | Edited 7:29am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote}
If you open short on #1 and if the size will be decent then it can be like #4.
Market orders move the price!
Is it really so hard to understand?

Okay, I will no more taking the p!ss out of you tonight, I have had my fun.

I missed that part quote of your post above, before, but THERE you do ask a good question ryu,

I say good because THAT question is about actual TRADING, no bothering with vol, no delta, is NOT necessary for me, as it is just what I call TRADING.


#1 was medium probabilty I may not trade there I cannot say, I watch market behaviour and as this is historic chart I won't say that I WILL trade there.
#2 was stronger probability and I may (in live trade, not historic) open a 'scout" trade here to test the market maker (which is your liquidity-vol maybe).
#3 was the Gold trade - please look at all the 7 price candles just before the major #3 candle drop. That is a trading clue for when I look to maybe trade.
(I call that area of 7 candles, and not ALWAYS 7, just what number happened there, as an area of Inflection ie breakout is imminent)

And I am happy (well I am used to it) to have trade go against me here, as you say, as THAT is what happens in market mechanics that I study (for 2 years or so)
This also gives me a good chance to scale in with extra trades in the same direction and provides good profits in a short time in one action, "when" it plays out.
If the trade doesn't work out I usually close off the trade now, no S/L, just CLOSE it as an instant action because a grind against the trade is not healthy for a/c.

If the price still rotates (ie more inflection) then I will still be happy to sit with my current trades (even if in small DD) and will want the trade to run down to the NEXT horizontal line where that smaller delta pin-bar flicks back up. And this is why I use my (george) Targets (that you will see as just lines), as they are where the market heads, look at the pin-bar perfect market mechanics it bounces up at, and while YES price does go down lower later I have closed all my trades in profit (maybe 3 or 4 as a basket depending on how my scout was treated, and how long inflection held) and am happy with that session of trades.

This is how I trade ryu, you can make fun & call it magic but you ALSO know I just laugh at you & that word, as that is how I trade.
(not this way is the BEST way, or this way is the ONLY way to trade, you understand !)

#4 was the gravy black line Target and I put gravy in there for fun as both Blue/Kev and BW/Jason would likely hold their trades down to that VERY LAST Target as they have bigger b@lls than me (their words lol). I trade more for a comfortable simpler profit at my age.

I have been very open about this trading ryu as you do seem a reasonable fellow (a bit stressed, maybe) but wishing to learn more,
while I have already posted all this stuff over & over before on Dutchy.

There are better & stronger traders than me in currencies, with different & also MUCH different ways of trading and I urge you to review ALL of those as well to inderstand that trading is individual, and it is always up to US how we do it.

I wish you well in crypto ryu, you seem to know what you are doing there.
As I know myself what I am doing with my trading here in currencies.

all the best

(edit: #4 trade did work out also ryu, kev & jason would have topped their roast beef, maybe, with the 'gravy'
as the trade would be started on the candle after the delta-sell pinbar which sits underneath the lewtters LH
the trade would be planned to close at the LAST black horizontal line target sitting and known in advance from the previous "runup", way earlier,
again there was slighlty more profit after the last target line, but I close at the line or even just before the line depending on candle momentums
and what happens AFTER the #4 black line, the return bounce, well I let the market form new mechanics and re-assess later after a cup of tea or go to bed)
  • #2,224
  • Jul 10, 2022 6:53am Jul 10, 2022 6:53am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Okay, I will no more taking the p!ss out of you tonight, I have had my fun. I missed that part quote of your post above, before, but THERE you do ask a good question ryu, I say good because THAT question is about actual TRADING, no bothering with vol, no delta, is NOT necessary for me, as it is just what I call TRADING. #1 was medium probabilty I may not trade there I cannot say, I watch market behaviour and as this is historic chart I won't say that I WILL trade there. #2 was stronger probability and I may (in live trade, not historic)...
succint, simple and very helpful. As usual
  • #2,225
  • Edited 9:19am Jul 10, 2022 7:51am | Edited 9:19am
Quoting Onra
Am I right that you know the CLOSES (but can't predict the (exact) L's and H's...) That's amazing...
Quoting deanyakobs
hi Onra and sir BW. How is possible to know the close beforehand ? (it not happened yet)
Hi Onra & Dean, this is what Moodybot wrote -

Quoting moodybot
Placing a trade will change price but price still has to achieve preset targets which is a concept you just haven’t considered. Assuming Pete placing a trade would affect the outcome of your chart as to make it unusable now would only stand if price had no preset targets to achieve. Explain how price moves after you take a trade. You can’t! Price heads to targets whether you like it or not.
Quoting moodybot
The Algo will control and match subsequent trades but ultimately has to achieve the set target. Knowing that the Algo has to conform to certain control conditions, that is where an edge can be found. Layman’s way of looking at this intriguing highly controlled, organised entity! Andy
This is what was written many years ago.
Quoting FXEZ
..... The better question is what is the true nature of price series - and what are the exploitable characteristics of the underlying nature?.....


Can future transactions be predicted before they happen? This is the stuff that trading edges are built from ....
When delta traders scalp they know where price will be next few seconds. They know 50times during their trading session. And they are correct 90+% of the time.
(something amazing about delta?)

When swing traders execute their trades they know where price will be at the end of the swing.

Can we know that bitcoin will not trade this weekend above 21920 hit just before the close last Friday ?
(something amazing about 21920?)

(In all these cases, nothing has happened yet. ALL traders trade something that's not happened yet.)
Know what you trade
  • #2,226
  • Jul 10, 2022 8:55am Jul 10, 2022 8:55am
Ok, here is the gold target. After this I will apply for Morgan Stanley as a trader I don't know if they know about George's targets.

May luck be with you guys!!!
At the same time AU is almost at the destination.
Baby all I'm asking is
Let me take you to the target
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  • #2,227
  • Jul 10, 2022 11:13am Jul 10, 2022 11:13am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} {quote}When delta traders scalp they know where price will be next few seconds. They know 50times during their trading session. And they are correct 90+% of the time. (something amazing about delta?)
Hey J...

Yes Delta can be highly accurate for those quick short scalps..But so can T&S... So can a naked chart with zero indicators...so can stochastics and MAs

As most good scalpers have a high hit rate...as we all know also with a generally negative RR and high trade costs a high hit rate is absolutely necessary...

So.....Delta nor T&S level 2 etc... Really has zero advantage over a highly skilled naked scalper.. or for that matter a skilled trader using moving averages stochastics etc...

The other point is scalping needs to be aggressive. With all methods. It's why Ryuryu no matter which data he used or which moving averages he used...his results are the same whether using "fake" data in a "fake" fx market lmao !!! Wooot... Or whether using real data in crypto...

One only has to look at first pages of his thread... He jumps from one thing to another... The only thing that makes his trading successful....
Like every other scalper is being aggressive .

So please everyone if you think that Delta is your holy grail your sadly mistaken .

Once again I am posting Tom's results from a few minutes of scalping....
an excellent example of aggressive scalping. No indicators are used...As Pete says Volume is not necessary the market is liquid as you will ever need trading with a CFD broker or a FX broker...

Daily turnover in the FX markets is what 6-7 trillion... The EurUsd accounts for over 25% of that that's 1.5-2 trillion per day... 1440 minutes in a trading day. Even In lower liquidity times there is massive volume..contrary to what some on here might say.


The main point is when people on here Forex Factory start saying their way is the only way...they have ulterior motives...they are selling something . I've been around this forum for over 15 years...I've seen it a hundred times...

Anyways I will post up some charts today..as they say picture is worth a thousand words...

As always
All the best to all.....
Blue

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #2,228
  • Jul 10, 2022 11:48am Jul 10, 2022 11:48am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Your statement is wrong. Price moves NOT because of volume. Volume is the RESULT. Market orders move the price. If today BTC price is 100$ and there first limit sell will be at 200000$ then if you hit BUY you will push the price to the moon and your buy price will be 200000$. But here we have NO VOLUME just your 10$ trade. Volume == TRADES. You better keep drawing your lines. As I see you can't understand (or don't want to) the basics. I see common mistake why you post all this. Because you think that orderbook data is the volume. It is...
Hi ryuryu,
First, congrats to you and Rick for working out how to use volume in crypto trading. I hope you guys take every dime you can find out of that market, whether it goes to a billion per coin or zero. I hope you guys get it all.

As for Forex trading, we all know and agree on a few things. First, there is no volume information in the forex. There are a few level 2 data sources around, but they are pretty sketchy and not very reliable. There are sources of forex-related information that every forex traders needs to know (e.g., options expiry), as well as financial information from the imbedding space that surrounds the forex, but that data does not have the immediate impact that volume-as-it-happens data would have on unfolding PA.

Second, there is no information on order flow in the forex market. IMHO, order flow is far more important that volume, and if you worked at a bank, you'd agree with that. Each bank has their order flow data and use it to trade, but are careful about using it, as they know that it can change quickly. Of course, the banks would love to know each other's book, but they know that sharing this information among their competitors will end in a lengthy separation from their families as they spend several decades in prison for securities fraud and collusion.

So, if you are the kind of trader who can't trade without the perceived assurance that volume or order flow data, you are going to struggle with the forex.

The big banks have figured out how to communicate critical order flow information to each other, and they collectively provide the entire world with a picture of price levels that are important to them, on both a large-scale and small-scale basis. This topic has been discussed in this thread as structure. Bankers provide a market narrative of important price levels through structure, and they write out the latest edition of that narrative every day (or session or hour). There is a reason for everything they do, and they understand the "collective" reason for everything seen in PA. They use it to manage their book, their trades, exposures, risks, etc. Quite literally, the big banks spend millions of dollars in this effort to communicate to the market what price levels are important, where they are going, and how they are going to get to where they are going, etc. They closely follow the narrative and appreciate their role in developing it. It does, however, leave a lot to be interpreted, by bank traders, and to a much greater degree, by retail traders. The narrative is easy to read as you look to the left on your chart (e.g., you can see where entry orders were massed) but then requires both skills and faith as you enter trades and wait for PA to unfold. If you are not comfortable with high levels of ambiguity in your trading life, then forex trading is not for you. As a trader, you have to know your limits.

If none of this makes sense to the reader, then assume it's all nonsense and get back to building your own path. If you are looking for success in the markets, you can select volume trading with cryptos or something with more ambiguity but very large rewards, too. As always, buyer beware.
  • #2,229
  • Jul 10, 2022 12:15pm Jul 10, 2022 12:15pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Hi ryuryu, First, congrats to you and Rick for working out how to use volume in crypto trading. I hope you guys take every dime you can find out of that market, whether it goes to a billion per coin or zero. I hope you guys get it all. As for Forex trading, we all know and agree on a few things. First, there is no volume information in the forex. There are a few level 2 data sources around, but they are pretty sketchy and not very reliable. There are sources of forex-related information that every forex traders needs to know (e.g., options...
Hi GEfx,
Thanks for telling about your experience. Just want to ask questions. What is the target of bank traders in terms of pips/percentantage/money/etc or they just hedge for companies? Thanks in advance
  • #2,230
  • Jul 10, 2022 12:38pm Jul 10, 2022 12:38pm
Quoting GEfx
The big banks have figured out how to communicate critical order flow information to each other, and they collectively provide the entire world with a picture of price levels that are important to them, on both a large-scale and small-scale basis. This topic has been discussed in this thread as structure. Bankers provide a market narrative of important price levels through structure, and they write out the latest edition of that narrative every day (or session or hour). There is a reason for everything they do, and they understand the "collective"...
Hi GEfx, as usual very well explained.

Forex traders have to read what you wrote to get the correct picture how the real FX market work.

Our job as retail Forex traders is to use whatever means to try to read the narrative on the left of the chart and use it to project what might happen on the right of the chart. Then take the trade in faith.

If the trader lack skill, expertise, faith or feel uncomfortable to operate in an ambiguous environment then this trading business is not for you.

Forex speculation is a prediction business and if you feel unease to take risk with your capital, or believe the future cannot be predicted or that this market is random or harbour any such negative ideas then better to find other avenue that's less ambiguous.
Know what you trade
  • #2,231
  • Jul 10, 2022 12:44pm Jul 10, 2022 12:44pm
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} Hi GEfx, Thanks for telling about your experience. Just want to ask questions. What is the target of bank traders in terms of pips/percentantage/money/etc or they just hedge for companies? Thanks in advance
For the bank, all that matters is their book. Individual traders, collectively, make up the book. If an individual trader trades 100 standard lots per trade, the book is interested in how to manage the risk of that 100 standard lot trade. For example, a trader may take a trade in anticipation of price hitting a stack of limit orders in their order book to either sell or buy. The book wants to be in trades to certain price levels, but will also see that some traders that are in negative positions through trades going the opposite direction (maybe that nest of limit orders got cancelled). So, the book will have trades moving to targets and in positive positions, but will see negative trades that net against positive trades. The idea is to exit positive trades at targeted price levels, or as PA moves to those price levels, to maximize positive trades, then use the book (and lower volume situations) to "rescue" negative balance trades (again, to enter trades in the opposite direction that will be positive trades, while moving PA back to reduce or eliminate the negative trades). A metric of the banks book is to track where they took or are negative in trades, and to trade back to those levels to square those positions. You see this all the time and on all time frames. It's how the forex works. But, that is not to say that every negative trades gets rescued in a timely manner. But the book never forgets.

Keep all that separate from other bank forex operations regarding hedging, etc. That is different.
  • #2,232
  • Jul 10, 2022 1:05pm Jul 10, 2022 1:05pm
The Flyin Fib Dutchman at work again !

Previous days high....Current days high/low and close..nothing to see here folks

Textbook example of the "market" eating traders up for breakfast and lunch.
It is the markets job to take the money/liquidity from the many to the few. 90/10/....95/5...98/2
whatever ratio trips your trigger

One needs to look at the charts and think where are the profitable trades ? Because that is where the market will go to
take their money back.

Look at the volume on July 7 NY runs it up then consolidates traders are piling on the longs and also shorts..
ITs simple market psychology of the traders. So what does the "market" do.....


Simple...it has now amassed trapped volume in that consolidation area...RECTANGLE
So it runs the market up clearing out all the short traders stops/liquidity
and runs it all the way back back down taking back all the money/liquidity from those long trades... Clearing out stops on both sides.

Then where does it close ? The beautiful part... right spot on Equilibrium.

The Flying Dutchman's hunting skills are second to none....Always always look at the big picture...Where is the money ..where are traders in the money because that is where the flying dutchman will come knocking at your door to take ITS money back.

BTW many excellent "OUTSIDE TRADES" on BTC...dont trade in the MATRIX...Stay on the Outside Always...Thats key to following the Flying Dutchman

Cheers
Blue


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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #2,233
  • Edited 1:29pm Jul 10, 2022 1:05pm | Edited 1:29pm
Quoting bluesteele
Hey J... Yes Delta can be highly accurate for those quick short scalps..But so can T&S... So can a naked chart with zero indicators...so can stochastics and MAs As most good scalpers have a high hit rate...as we all know also with a generally negative RR and high trade costs a high hit rate is absolutely necessary... So.....Delta nor T&S level 2 etc... Really has zero advantage over a highly skilled naked scalper.. or for that matter a skilled trader using moving averages stochastics etc...
Hi Kev, most of us on this thread don't need volume to trade. Ryuryu somehow learnt from Rick that there's no way to trade the forex market without volume data. And it may be true for them but thats surely not true for everyone.

Yes, I agree there are experts who trade with just stochastics or MA etc. Or trade a naked chart. Or trade with whatever indicators you need.

Imho, the trader has to attain some kind of skill and expertise to predict the future and he must have the faith to execute his trades confidently. That's the basic essential to trade successfully. Regardless the method or the tools we use.

And there's plenty of opportunity to make serious money from trading Forex, there's no need to trade the Crypto market.

Edit - I find it weird that members feel uncomfortable with this prediction thing. As traders, we analyse what has already happened then use this analysis to predict what might happen in the future. We should be and must be comfortable with prediction in an ambiguous environment because that's what we do everyday that we trade.
Know what you trade
  • #2,234
  • Jul 10, 2022 1:14pm Jul 10, 2022 1:14pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} For the bank, all that matters is their book. Individual traders, collectively, make up the book. If an individual trader trades 100 standard lots per trade, the book is interested in how to manage the risk of that 100 standard lot trade. For example, a trader may take a trade in anticipation of price hitting a stack of limit orders in their order book to either sell or buy. The book wants to be in trades to certain price levels, but will also see that some traders that are in negative positions through trades going the opposite direction...
Thanks. This again leads to how the trader is good at analyzing the market or reading the narrative.
  • #2,235
  • Edited 2:07pm Jul 10, 2022 1:44pm | Edited 2:07pm
Quoting bluesteele
It's why Ryuryu no matter which data he used or which moving averages he used...his results are the same whether using "fake" data in a "fake" fx market lmao !!! Wooot... Or whether using real data in crypto... One only has to look at first pages of his thread... He jumps from one thing to another... The only thing that makes his trading successful.... Like every other scalper is being aggressive . So please everyone if you think that Delta is your holy grail your sadly mistaken.
In ryuryu/Rick case, they staunchly believe in their delta indicator to the extent that they can't believe anyone can trade Forex successfully without it. How can anyone trade blind without this volume data? At least they believe they can't and this must be true for everyone. And they are so sure that they throw this same challenge at anyone and everyone on so many threads.

This is the latest episode.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14060658

Delta may not be the holy grail to us but from ryuryu's post and their behaviour on FF it is to them. Tbh I do understand their passion but it's gone overboard.

Edit - the one thing that puzzles me is their claim that the retail traders 0.1lot executed with his broker can move price. This surely can't be true.
Know what you trade
  • #2,236
  • Jul 10, 2022 1:59pm Jul 10, 2022 1:59pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} For the bank, all that matters is their book. A metric of the banks book is to track where they took or are negative in trades, and to trade back to those levels to square those positions. You see this all the time and on all time frames. It's how the forex works. But, that is not to say that every negative trades gets rescued in a timely manner. But the book never forgets.
the ONE bank never forget his negative trades.
or UNFINISHED BUSSINESS

He WILL comeback someday, and
He MUST

our job is asking, which their negative trade (THE TARGET) will taken first from DOL ?
  • #2,237
  • Edited 4:09pm Jul 10, 2022 3:56pm | Edited 4:09pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} the one thing that puzzles me is their claim that the retail traders 0.1lot executed with his broker can move price. This surely can't be true.
I don't want to collapse the financial market by revealing the secret (which doesn't exist imho), if 0.1 lot can destroy the plans.
  • #2,238
  • Edited 4:23pm Jul 10, 2022 4:09pm | Edited 4:23pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} In ryuryu/Rick case, they staunchly believe in their delta indicator to the extent that they can't believe anyone can trade Forex successfully without it. How can anyone trade blind without this volume data? At least they believe they can't and this must be true for everyone. And they are so sure that they throw this same challenge at anyone and everyone on so many threads. This is the latest episode. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14060658 Delta may not be the holy grail to us but from ryuryu's post and...
Trading is not a place to believe. You main problem is that you think I "believe" in something. Nope, opposite: I don't believe.

I don't believe that you can outperform algos using drawing tools - no evidence. Never saw such a trader and it is not possible in long run.
I don't believe in billions and trillions on forex - no evidence. Never saw forex broker volume data.
I don't believe TimeTells and you. Evidence: all you post says me that you are not real traders. It is impossible to trade successfully with that "quality" of knowledge. All you dream about market is like trying to convince a math professor that two plus and sometimes three and sometimes five. Too funny for serious discussion.

But I see CME data every day. It is good, It make sense. It is trustable. Audited. I believe it.
I see bybit and bitex volume every day. It make sense. And I see binance. And it is fake for sure. So I believe in bybit data and don't believe in binance data.

So if you like talking about thing like believes - I believe in math and common sense.
Observer effect
  • #2,239
  • Edited 6:16pm Jul 10, 2022 5:52pm | Edited 6:16pm
Quoting ryuryu
So I believe in bybit data and don't believe in binance data. So if you like talking about thing like believes - I believe in math and common sense.
Hi ryuryu, all traders have our own beliefs.

I wrote I understand you, what you wrote and why you wrote them. I don't have issue with what you wrote. Perhaps other members may have issue but I don't have. I mind my own business.

You wrote you believe in math. If I remember correctly I wrote I believe in algo math years ago, fact is I trade guided by this math and nothing else. People take issue with this algo math thing. I have not shown anything about it and I don't intend to, so I understand. You believe in common sense, so do I.

I see you measure quite a lot of variables, including your volume delta. I also measure a lot of variables, but I don't measure volume delta variable - that's the variable that's unnecessary in my strategy. What you measure I don't measure. What I measure you don't measure. There are a few things we measure that's the same.

You believe traders must need this volume data. I know my strategy don't need this volume data. I don't know what variables other members need and I don't know about their strategy, so I don't comment. I don't have a reason why I should know. That's being logical.

It's ok you don't believe me. It's also ok if no one believe me. It doesn't bother me. I don't seek validation on FF. I also don't believe other people, that's being prudent. You should be ok if I don't believe you. I too don't agree with other people's belief. But I respect this difference.

I notice there are members on FF who seek validation on FF. I'm surprise why seek validation from Internet strangers? This is my opinion - to explain why, ulterior commercial motive. I wrote that long ago.

If you read my earlier posts, I wrote what I think about traditional technical analysis. It did offend other members. But I had to write it, it's my humble opinion. I was not rude, I simply expressed my opinion.

You are welcome to write your opinion. But you don't have to be rude. No reason for personal attacks. No reason for quarrels. No one should stop you from writing your opinion. You should not stop other members from expressing their opinion too. Its a boring forum if you only get to read your own opinion.

If other members feel offended with your opinion, the problem is theirs. If you take offence what I wrote that's your problem. Be prepared if some member may correct you if you are factually wrong.

In short, I believe in a well research objectively quantified strategy where the discretionary content is reduced to a minimum where possible. Lots of quantified rules, very little discretion. I wrote that long time ago.

I don't have problem with other people's belief, it's their money they put at risk, not mine. I have no right to question this personal decision - it's insane to do that. It's insane and stupid to take on the worlds problems. And I recognise we are all different. That's being logical.

I hope I have clarified myself. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #2,240
  • Jul 10, 2022 6:31pm Jul 10, 2022 6:31pm
I have always had the philosophy that if a thousand people are hoodwinked into joining a scam, the cleverest one out of all of them, runs the scam.
Just an anecdote for the start of the new trading week.
Trade well everyone.
Have a great week.
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