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XAUUSD(Gold) TradingJournal - Charts&Commentaries – by Wibie G

  • #21
  • Mar 22, 2019 1:37am Mar 22, 2019 1:37am
DATE: Wed, 20 – 03 – 2019

TRADE: Sell
TYPE: Breakout

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.03.20.png Size: 51 KB


COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Humbled. It was another new setups combination that I didn’t think could happened, but did. There was an invalid on-time Breakout on Candle 10:00, followed up by a valid on-time one; never seen it before. What did I think in response to this combination? “Well, if in March 08’s Trade I hypothesized that previous invalid early-bloom Setup would not automatically cancel out a valid on-time setup, that must also be true for this combo!” With that conviction, I opened a Trade for the valid on-time Breakout on Candle 11:00. Boy, was I wrong! The next H1 Candle lick my SL and hence quickly kicked my trade out of the game. And boy was I right for putting an SL there! Particularly after the report on the Fed’s hawkish view, Price spike up hard. The SL saved me from a major Loss.


Results:
As mentioned above, there were 2 Breakout Candles inside this day’s Signal Period. The first one was on Candle 10:00. It was invalid because it happened at the first Upper Chandelier. The second one met all criteria, except it happened after that invalid one. I decided to open the Trade there considering previous hypothesis. I was wrong. Price hit SL immediately. Then Price moved up 3 Candles, followed by 3 bearish Candles, and then moved up 3 Candles again, in which the last one—Candle 21:00—moved up so strongly broke 4-5 Fractal Levels before residing slightly on level $1313.

Learning:

  1. New Criteria: If such double setups (i.e. invalid setup, then valid one) happen again inside the Signal Period, don’t trade it!
  2. After an invalid setup, Price tends to go zigzagging like what happened this day and previous one. So, we could say the Criteria also work as a Preventer for me to enter potentially bad trades.

  • #22
  • Edited 5:29am Mar 22, 2019 1:50am | Edited 5:29am
DATE: Thu, 21 – 03 – 2019

TRADE: Buy
TYPE: Breakout

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.03.21.png Size: 50 KB


COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Oh well.. In this journal’s history, this was the first Trade that turned into a legitimate Loss. ‘Legitimate’ here means all Criteria were met and I couldn’t find a reason not to trade it; even in retrospect. On the other hand, the Setup between Candle 09:00 and 10:00 did resemble the typical bearish, on-time Reversal Setup; except there was no Upper Fractal Level to reverse to.

Results:
It started with a couple of early-bloom Breakouts on Candle 02:00 and 04:00. I entered the trade soon after the first bullish Candle in Signal Period closed, which was Candle 09:00. The next Candle formed as a bearish Doji before the Reversal started. It wasn’t a smooth one. There was retracement move in the 14th and 15th Candles, before heading down again, and close the day net negative at $1309 level.

Learning:

  1. Market will do whatever it wants to do. Criteria can only ‘anticipate’. It cannot ‘ensure’ Results.
  2. I just have to suck it up. Won’t add another Criterion as it will only complicate things.
  3. On the bright side, SL has saved me from a major Loss once again.

  • #23
  • Mar 23, 2019 1:07am Mar 23, 2019 1:07am
DATE: Fri, 22 – 03 – 2019

TRADE: Buy
TYPE: Breakout

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.03.22.png Size: 48 KB


COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Drained. Both my Resolve to the Rulebook and my Ability to Manage the Trailing Stop (TS) were fiercely tested several times in this Trade. Price Dynamics were very choppy after OP was triggered all the way to end of the day. Thanks to my rrr-based TS and Candle Counting method I was I able to calm my Lizard Brain that, “Everything’s going to be alright … eventually!”

Results:
This a combination of two setups:1) invalid early-bloom Breakout between Candle 04:00 and 08:00, followed by 2) valid on-time Breakout on Candle 09:00. Based on Learning no.1 of Trade on 08 – 03 – 2019, I’ve found then that in response to such combo, I will still open the Trade for that Setup 2) in this Day. Let’s start with Setup 1). It was invalid because their joint SL - Anchor Range was too tight to trade, i.e. $0.93. The Setup 2) has all of its Criteria checked. So, it was valid to trade. OP was triggered two candles later. But then Price mostly ranging within Anchor – 1.0 rrr Zone only. Let’s do the play by play again on the TS management. No decision needed for Candle 10:00 and 11:00 because they were still below 0.5 rrr Level. Next Candle closed between 0.5 – 1.0 rrr Zone. But Candle 13:00 couldn’t stay at the Level and back down together with 2 more Candles after. So, SL level must still stay at initial Level. Then, Candle 16:00 breached above into 1.0 – 1.5 rrr Zone. By this point, there were already 3 TBuCs printed, with TP was just $1.32 away. However, its next Candle fell 1 zone down. Luckily, Candle 18:00 stayed in that 0.5 – 1.0 rrr Zone. That confirmed me to move my SL to Level 50.0. I took a sleep after that; woke up again near Candle 23’s closing; I closed the Trade with 0.6 rrr profit. Later on, today, I rechecked and found out that last Candle was the 4th TBuC for the Trade Day.

Learning:

  1. The reconfirmation of the new Criteria (i.e. valid on-time trade, preceded by invalid early-bloom one, should still be traded) in this Trade has certainly been assuring for me to keep using it.
  2. So far, the Strategy has been delivering Net Profits and steady Equity Growth. So, I only need to maintain it and improve as I go along. As this Trade showed, it isn’t always easy, and doesn’t seems worth it looking at their day-to-day results. But, the overall performance does make all of the sacrifices worthwhile.

  • #24
  • Mar 23, 2019 6:03pm Mar 23, 2019 6:03pm

The Journey of a Successful Trading Career,

condensed into these Two Sentences..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Persistent and Consistent.png Size: 678 KB

  • #25
  • Mar 26, 2019 1:31am Mar 26, 2019 1:31am
DATE: Mon, 25 – 03 – 2019

TRADE: Buy
TYPE: Breakout

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.03.25.png Size: 48 KB


COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Mixed. Quite many ambiguities in this early-bloom Breakout Trade.

Results:
First, the Breakout on Candle 05:00 was a Breakout-ish, because its Close and the Fractal Level it broke out from was exactly at the same level: $1314.92. Second, Candle 03:00 to 08:00 were all bullish with de-escalation body sizes. They appeared as an exhaustive chain of candles to me. But because Rulebook said it was all good, I traded the Setup anyway. The bearish Candle 09:00 triggered the OP but also showed what I worried about. Luckily, it was only a form of pullback as the next Candle turned to be quite a strong bullish one. Third, Price didn’t move up smoothly from there. Candle 13:00 even closed as an obvious Pinbar within Anchor – 0.5 rrr Area. Knowing that, the thought of ejecting from the Trade came time and time again in my mind. Looking at H4 Timeframe, it seemed there was a Buyers-Sellers Battle going on to push/ pull Price reaching an important Fractal Level at $1320.34, which also happened to be the exact level of this Trade’s TP. Fourth, Candle 17:00 formed as an upper long-legged Doji at that TP. By then, Chart already printed 3 TBuCs. The TP strategy in Rulebook said to ignore Dojis and Pinbars for identifying and counting TBuCs/TBeCs, as well as for whether to close a Trade or not when a Candle crosses a TP. Hence, I decided to ignore Candle 17:00’s Doji pattern and maintained the Trade. The next Candle indeed still pushed through above TP; creating the 4th TBuC. It formed a pullback Candle where its Upper Tail was much longer than its Lower Tail. So, I closed the Trade there as the Candle closed, with a 2.25 rrr win. In the next day, I saw that day’s closing Price was just slightly above the Price where I closed the Trade. So, the decision to close the Trade was consistent with my Bias; that Price won’t go higher again after the closing.

Learning:

  1. As seen in this thread, my trades have been the true demonstrations of what Linda Raschke reminded us a long time ago, “The most important task in speculation is not prediction but Self-Control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the equation for success.”

  • #26
  • Mar 26, 2019 6:49pm Mar 26, 2019 6:49pm
DATE: Tue, 26 – 03 – 2019

TRADE: Sell
TYPE: Breakout

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.03.26.png Size: 50 KB


COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Relieved... Quite easy Price Dynamics on This Day’s Trade. All movements were anticipated by Rulebook.

Results:
This bearish early-bloom Breakout started with Candle 05:00; traded since the bearish Candle 08:00 closed. OP triggered on the next Candle. TP touched by the 2nd TBeC. Unfortunately, Candle 13:00 couldn’t close below that TBeC’s Low. So, I had to close the Trade there as per Rulebook with a 0.6 rrr win; after only 5 hours. Two Candles later, strong Pullback happened but Price Dynamics went ranging from there. And the day closed at net bearish.

Learning:

  1. Telling myself to always enjoy and be grateful for easy, fast Trades like this one.
  2. And, taking good sleeps while at it.

  • #27
  • Edited Jun 19, 2019 1:11am Mar 27, 2019 4:42pm | Edited Jun 19, 2019 1:11am
DATE: Wed, 27 – 03 – 2019

TRADE: Sell (not taken, not all criteria were met)
TYPE: Breakout

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.03.27.png Size: 54 KB


COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Saved again. It was a whipsaw day for day traders. Fortunately, the Rulebook instructed me to stay on the bench, before it happened.

Results:
The early-bloom bearish Breakout started on Candle 07:00. As the chart shows, it happened on the 1st upper Chandelier which indicated that it may be a false breakout. So, I decided not to trade it. Turned out, the decision avoided me from a loss. If I opened the Trade after the continuation bearish candle on Candle 10:00 closed, Price would’ve closed the Trade in the next Candle. Even after that reversal pattern, Price still reversed again as the 13th and 14th Candles showed, before it regressed strongly and closed the Day Candle in a form which indicated that a strong bearish movement may about to happen.

Learning:

  1. Feeling lucky, not by accident, but by following the Rules.

  • #28
  • Mar 29, 2019 5:49am Mar 29, 2019 5:49am
DATE: Thu, 28 – 03 – 2019

TRADE: Sell (not taken, first seen kind of setup)
TYPE: Reversal

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.03.28_a.png Size: 45 KB

Setup 1)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.03.28_b.png Size: 51 KB

Setup 2)

COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Hmm... By current setup defined in Rulebook, I did the right thing for not taking a Trade that day. But as the book is meant to be improved as I journey on to future charts, there’s still room for improvement based on this day’s Candle moves. In hindsight, I now see two setups: 1) On-time bullish Breakout on Candle 08:00 which was invalid by Rulebook due to small range of SL – Anchor, and factually invalidated by Price Actions that followed; and 2) On-time bearish Reversal with a Setup that was not known to me. This 2) Setup is not the typical one in my Rulebook because usually—in an ideal Reversal Setup—the bullish Candle 08:00 there wouldn’t make a breakout from the upper Fractal; but it did. On the other hand, the reversal Candle 09:00 itself won’t typically close below that Candle 08:00’s Open; but it did. This combined pattern does make sense to be used as a new valid setup for future trading opportunities. It started as a Fake Breakout on Candle 08:00. Then, the reversal Candle 09:00 pushed through below it, which signaled a strong bearish reversal Move is coming.

Results:
Regarding the 1st Setup which was invalid, the breakout was on-time on Candle 08:00. But it’s SL-Anchor Range was too tight, i.e. $1.16. So, I decided not to trade. The decision was a capital saver. Price hit SL on the next Candle. With the 2nd Setup, this would be hypothetical of course. We would assume I took the Trade with the new Criterion included into other existing Criteria. The valid reversal Candle was the 9th one. All Criteria appeared in this Trade. OP was triggered on the next Candle. Five consecutive bearish Candles afterward. TP was hit by the 4th TBeC that still formed as a healthy Bearish Candle. So, I would’ve still kept the Trade after, while placing SL at its Open. I would then close the Chart, and to open it again before Market closed for the day. Price on Candle 15:00 almost licked SL (spread considered). Fortunately, the Trade survived and would make a huge 9.5 rrr win at the end of this Day.

Learning:

  1. Market evolves. So should I.
  2. Missing out is okay, as long as we take Lessons from it.

  • #29
  • Mar 30, 2019 12:35am Mar 30, 2019 12:35am
DATE: Fri, 29 – 03 – 2019

TRADE: Sell
TYPE: Breakout

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.03.29.png Size: 48 KB

This Day’s valid on-time bearish Breakout.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mDaily_Examples of Escalation Patterns_marked.png Size: 202 KB

Escalation Pattern signs a potential Exhaustion to move further with the Trend on the Current Day. A set of bearish three D1 Candles that didn’t form the pattern showed the further push with the Trend was still probable and did happen.

COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Lost but now I’m found. It was the 2nd legitimate lost trade in this Trade, after the first one. A valid setup followed by a loss result. It force me to think outside of my box. Thankfully, I found it … in D1 timeframe. I know I’ve mentioned my hypothesis in Learning 2. in March 19th that I only need to look at H1 Timeframe using the Rulebook to make a Trade Decision. I admit now I was ‘partially wrong’ about that, thus far. To illustrate, see the marked D1 Chart on the 2nd Screenshot of this post. This legitimate Loss and the previous one both happened after series of Escalation Patterns on the past 3 trading days before each of them. The same pattern has been used in this H1 Trading Plan to signal Price Exhaustion. In This Day’s Trade, for example, there was escalation of D1 Candles’ bearish Body Sizes between March 26th to 28th. Before the lost Trade on March 21st, there was also an Escalation Pattern between March 18th to 20th. They both were followed by Candles moving against the respective Trends. In contrast, there were 3 consecutive bearish Candles between Feb 27th to March 01st. But because they didn’t form as an escalation pattern, Candle March 2nd could and had formed as a bearish Candle still. The follow up to this Finding is of course I would’ve to add this in Criteria now I know what to expect.

Results:
At first, there was a valid early-bloom bearish Breakout on Candle 06:00. But then there was another valid on-time bearish Breakout on Candle 09:00. So I open the Sell Trade using the last one. Next Candle was bullish, I thought it was just a temporary pullback. But the Candle after wiped out my SL. And then Price kept on moving up 5 consecutive Candles later, before residing down hard since American Session started. Price closed the day still net bullish.

Learning:

  1. Eureka! A New Criteria to avoid Bad Trades has been found.
  2. If I noticed the bearish Escalation Pattern in previous three D1 Candles, I would not open that Sell Trade. Lesson is learned.

  • #30
  • Mar 30, 2019 12:41am Mar 30, 2019 12:41am

The Story of This Week's Journaling can be summed up in these sentences ...


Attached Image
  • #31
  • Apr 1, 2019 10:46pm Apr 1, 2019 10:46pm
DATE: Mon, 01 – 04 – 2019

TRADE: 1 Buy and 2 Sells (not taken, not all criteria were met)
TYPE: Breakout, then Reversal, then Breakout again

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.04.01.png Size: 65 KB


COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Saved, trice! There were three invalid setups that happen sequentially. First was the invalid early-bloom bullish Breakout on Candle 06:00. Second was the invalid, early-bloom bearish Reversal on Candle 06:00 to 08:00. Third, was the invalid, on-time bearish Breakout on Candle 09:00.

Results:
The early-bloom bullish Breakout was invalid because of its SL-Anchor Range that was too small to trade. The early-bloom Reversal was invalid because Candle 08:00 as the Continuation Candle didn’t even touched the lower Chandelier. And the next bearish Candle moved too fast it broke the Chandelier and touched its designated TP. That Candle 09:00 happened to broke a lower Fractal level. So, it was a potential sell opportunity too. Unfortunately, it was invalidated due to the fact it was where the first upper Chandelier started. Hence, I didn’t take any of those trades. As the rest of Price Dynamics showed, it was another capital-saving thing to do, regardless that the daily Candle eventually went bearish at the end of day.

Learning:

  1. More confidence on the Rulebook and myself.

  • #32
  • Apr 2, 2019 9:29pm Apr 2, 2019 9:29pm
DATE: Tue, 02 – 04 – 2019

TRADE: Sell (not taken, not all criteria were met)
TYPE: Breakout, and then Reversal

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.04.02.png Size: 60 KB


COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Sigh.. More multiple jeopardies were avoided. First, the invalid, early-bloom bearish Breakout on Candle 07:00. Second, the invalid on-time bearish Reversal on Candle 08:00 and 09:00.

Results:
The early-bloom bearish Breakout was invalid because its continuation Candle within Signal period never appeared. The on-time bearish Reversal was invalid because the Candle 08:00 which was the Anchor of the Reversal was also where the lower Chandelier first started it.

Learning:

  1. More evidences showed that the Rulebook has been helping protecting my Capital.

  • #33
  • Apr 3, 2019 8:48pm Apr 3, 2019 8:48pm
DATE: Wed, 03 – 04 – 2019

TRADE: Buy
TYPE: Breakout

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.04.03.png Size: 56 KB


COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Challenged. The market has been challenging me with hard-to-read Setups lately. This time, it led to a losing Trade for me. In retrospect, I end up revising the revision of this particular Setup. So, at least, I got a new learning again. Yippie..!

Results:
This day, it started with a bullish, early-bloom Breakout on Candle 04:00, which later on also created a new upper Fractal Level. The bullish Candle 08:00 as the continuation Confirmation couldn’t close above that new Fractal Level. I recalled about the Doji Candle criterion back in March 18th’s Trade that seemed have invalidated the same Setup type. Because there was no Doji in This Day’s Trade and other Criteria were all met, I opened the trade. It ended as a loss at SL Level just 2 Candles later. Price moved frantically since, moving up and down without clear direction until Daily Candle closed bearish.

Learning:

  1. Based on March 18th’s and This Day’s Trades, I concluded the ‘No Go’ Sign wasn’t supposed to be the Doji. It was their newly formed Fractal Levels that the continuation Candles couldn’t surpassed.
  2. I have revised the relevant Criterion for future early-bloom Breakout Trades.

  • #34
  • Apr 4, 2019 10:16pm Apr 4, 2019 10:16pm
DATE: Thu, 04 – 04 – 2019

TRADE: Buy (not taken, not all criteria were met)
TYPE: Breakout

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.04.04.png Size: 51 KB


COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Numb. Another false signal. Another saving by the Rulebook.

Results:
The early-bloom bullish Breakout in Candle 07:00 and its continuation Candle 08:00 had an SL-Anchor Range of only $0.95. So, I didn’t open the Trade. It was the right call. Price reversed strongly down before moving up again during American Session back to slightly above Daily Open Position. In weekly and daily time frames, we see This Day’s Price Dynamics was rejecting again the strong Support made since early March’19.

Learning:

  1. Numbness starts to creep in watching all these false signals.
  2. Need to refresh my motivation to go on be consistent with my discipline.

  • #35
  • Apr 7, 2019 8:37pm Apr 7, 2019 8:37pm
DATE: Fri, 05 – 04 – 2019

TRADE: Buy (not taken, not all criteria were met)
TYPE: Reversal

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.04.05.png Size: 56 KB


COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Finally! But wait... It’s been awhile since the last reversal setup. This Day’s Setup wasn’t a valid one either. So, I passed it. It turned out to be another capital-saving decision as well.

Results:
At first, as Candle 09:00 was progressing, I thought it’ll be a trigger Candle for bearish on-time Breakout Setup. But then, it ended up being a Pinbar reversing from a confirmed but new lower Fractal Level made on Candle 06:00. Rulebook states to stay away from such setup; so I did. Price then moved ranging, before moving volatilely from Candle 14:00 to 17:00 crossing designated SL level twice, until settled the day forming another bullish daily Pinbar.

Learning:

  1. Another day my Patience was tested. Another day I stayed discipline.

  • #36
  • Apr 12, 2019 9:51pm Apr 12, 2019 9:51pm
Due to personal matters last week (8 - 12 April 2019), I hadn't been able to trade; hence, nor journaling it.

An imaginary recap of them are presented here for the sake of recording them.


Mon, 08 - 04 - 2019
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.04.08.png Size: 49 KB

Bullish early-bloom breakout (Candles 04:00 and 08:00).
TP was hit on Candle 15:00. I would then put SL on its Low and left the chart to go to bed. Unfortunately, Price hit that trailing stop on Candle 18:00, resulting in less than 0.5 rrr win.


Tue, 09 - 04 - 2019
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.04.09.png Size: 54 KB

Bullish on-time breakout (Candle 10:00).
TP was hit on Candle 15:00 again. Though it was only on the 2nd TBuC, it formed as a halting candle which happened also crossing a Fractal Level. So, I would've closed the Trade then and there with 1.2 rrr win.


Wed, 10 - 04 - 2019
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.04.10.png Size: 49 KB

Bearish early-bloom breakout (Candles 04:00 and 08:00) (not taken, not all criteria were met)
Bearish breakout on Candle 04:00 was invalidated by a new lower Fractal Level on Candle 05:00, which was confirmed by Candle 07:00. Price then also proved going against the Trade, as anticipated.


Thu, 11 - 04 - 2019
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.04.11.png Size: 49 KB

Bearish on-time breakout (Candle 10:00)
At first, there was a bearish early-bloom breakout first on Candle 04:00. But it was invalidated due to it being the 1st Candle with the upper Chandelier. Price gradually move up breaking the chandelier. Then, another south push happened on Candle 10:00, creating a valid bearish on-time breakout. TP was hit on the 2nd TBeC which closed below all 2 Fractal Levels it crossed. So, I would maintain opening the Trade. Third TBeC did the same to all 7 Fractal Levels. Price retraced for a while before creating the 4th TBeC on Candle 18:00. Then, it would be the time I would close the Trade.


Fri, 12 - 04 - 2019
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.04.12.png Size: 58 KB

Bearish on-time reversal (Candles 08:00 and 09:00) (not taken, not all criteria were met)
Candle 08:00 as the Anchor was where first lower Chandelier created. That made Candle 09:00 a weak reversal Candle; not safe to trade. Though Price eventually reversed, it happened after the designated SL level was hit first.
  • #37
  • Apr 16, 2019 1:02am Apr 16, 2019 1:02am
DATE: Mon, 15 – 04 – 2019

TRADE: Sell
TYPE: Breakout

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.04.15.png Size: 53 KB


COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Oh well.. The setup was not ideal nor its anticipated reward was appealing, but I took it anyway. The result was quite minimal.

Results:
There was a bearish early-bloom Breakout on Candle 04:00. Price then retraced creating a confirmed Fractal Level at the Candle’s Low. Knowing that, the bearish Candle 08:00 was not enough to confirm a valid Trade. A bearish Candle must breakout out below that Fractal Level. Fortunately, Candle 11:00 did that. As it was still within the valid Signal Period, I opened a Sell Signal there. Candle 15:00 was scary cause for awhile it showed reversal move. Next Candle 16:00 touched expected TP though closed in an obvious Pinbar form. So, I closed the Trade there with a gain slightly above 0.1 rrr win.

Learning:

  1. To always appreciate what the Market gives me.
  2. This time it was small. Regardless, I am grateful about it.

  • #38
  • Apr 17, 2019 7:52am Apr 17, 2019 7:52am
DATE: Tue, 16 – 04 – 2019

TRADE: Sell
TYPE: Breakout

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.04.16.png Size: 49 KB


COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Quite happy. Quite by-the-book this Trade was. It resulted in decent profit as well.

Results:
Candle 03:00 created a bearish early-bloom Breakout. Later on, Candle 08:00 confirmed it. Candle 09:00’s reversal Move scared me, but I stayed my ground. Price started to reverse to my Trade’s direction again until Candle 12:00 licked the TP Level as the 1st TBeC only. So, I decided to keep going with the Trade. Strong 2nd TBeC by Candle 15:00 passed through multiple Fractal Levels, but it closed with no sign of reversal yet. Only when the next Candle closed on such manner I closed the Trade as well, with a decent 1.5 rrr win. Price then closed the Day at around the same level.

Learning:

  1. Another patient-testing Trade that I makes me remind myself to keep on following the Rulebook.

  • #39
  • Apr 18, 2019 9:02am Apr 18, 2019 9:02am
DATE: Wed, 17 – 04 – 2019

TRADE: Buy (not taken, not all criteria were met)
TYPE: Breakout

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.04.17.png Size: 51 KB


COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Saved. Prior 3 Trade D1 Candles have created an Escalation Pattern. Not a safe environment to trade, either for Buy nor Sell.

Results:
Looking at This Day’s Trade only, there was a valid early-bloom Breakout between Candles 04:00 and 08:00. But the D1 Escalation Pattern signed exhaustion either ways of Price movement. That pattern proved that This Day’s supposedly valid Buy Trade turned to be bearish and would make my designated SL hit by the time Candle 11:00 showed up. Price eventually turned and closed bearish too for the day.

Learning:

  1. Be patient when it’s time to wait. Be bold when it’s time to act.

  • #40
  • Apr 19, 2019 1:49am Apr 19, 2019 1:49am
DATE: Thu, 18 – 04 – 2019

TRADE: Sell
TYPE: Breakout

CHART:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.mH1.2019.04.18.png Size: 55 KB


COMMENTARY:

Feeling:
Sigh.. The Criteria were all valid as per Rulebook, but the valid bearish early-bloom Breakout still resulted in a Loss. Afterward, I studied again the trades that occurred after D1 Escalation Patterns in the past. My running hypothesis now is ‘before an opposite D1 Candle appears that closes in a form against the Escalation’s Direction, it’s best to stay off the Market’. For instance, the bearish Escalation Pattern that appeared on D1 Candles of April 12, 16 and 17 2019 were followed by another bearish D1 Candle of April 18. Hence, with that screening, I should have not trade on this Day. Since the Day closed as a bullish D1 Candle now, I could then trade the Market again on the next trading day assuming a valid opportunity appears.

Results:
There was an early-bloom Breakout on Candle 04:00, followed by the first bearish Candle 09:00 in the Signal Period that confirmed a continuing bearish Move was about to happen. All other Criteria also supported the bias. That didn’t happen. In fact, Price moved strongly to the opposite direction on the next Candle that forced the Trade to close by hitting my SL. Price then basically whipsawed up and down ever since until its Daily Candle closed slightly bullish.

Learning:

  1. One more learning, one more screening to avoid bad trades.

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