-
Rates Scenario for July 9, 2026
The FOMC next meets on July 28-29 with no change in policy rates expected for the fifth consecutive confab (fed funds target range at 3.50%-to-3.75%). We believe this stretch could last deep into next year, with inflation and growth dynamics arguing for maintaining current policy. Following five straight years of topping the 2% target, the PCE price index was up 4.1% y/y in May, pumped by higher oil prices. But excluding energy and food, the core index was still up 3.4% with core services excluding rents up 3.9%. The trimmed mean measure was more benign at 2.6% but is still a bit too high with the median index at ... (full story)
- Comments / Top
- Subscribe
-
Related Stories
QATARI NEGOTIATORS ARE IN IRAN TO MEET IRANIAN OFFICIALS IN AN EFFORT TO DE-ESCALATE TENSIONS AND CREATE CONDITIONS FOR BROADER NEGOTIATIONS TO CONTINUE; TALKS CONDUCTED IN COORDINATION WITH U.S. - SOURCE WITH KNOWLEDGE OF THE SITUATION QATAR SAYS IMPORTANT FOR IRAN, US TO IMPLEMENT MOU Talks aim to address implementation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and issues that triggered the recent US-Iran escalation, including disputes over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz - Source with Knowledge of Situation.
BoJ set to keep interest rates unchanged in July but maintain policy guidance pledging to continue raising rates - Sources BoJ may revise up fiscal 2026 economic growth forecast in quarterly report due in July, keep focus on risk of inflation overshoot - Sources.
Employment was little changed in June (+18,000; +0.1%) and the employment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 60.8%. The unemployment rate declined 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%. Employment was up among youth (15 to 24 years old) (+33,000; +1.2%) and among core-aged people (25 to 54 years old) (+33,000; 0.2%), while it fell among those aged 55 and older ...
