PCE report: Fed's preferred inflation measure hits 3-year high, keeping talk of possible rate hike in play

Personal income increased $181.6 billion (0.7 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $164.9 billion (0.7 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $156.1 billion (0.7 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $159.9 billion in May. Personal saving was $704.2 billion in May, and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 3.0 percent. The increase in current-dollar personal income in May primarily reflected increases in farm proprietors’ income and compensation. The $156.1 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in May reflected increases of $94.3 billion in spending on services and $61.8 billion in spending on goods. Core inflation rate hit 3.4% in May, highest since October 2023, Fed’s preferred gauge shows The Federal Reserve’s primary price gauge rose at its highest core level since 2023, reinforcing the central bank’s recent tough talk on inflation. The personal consumption expenditures price index showed inflation running at a seasonally adjusted 4.1% annual rate, the highest since April 2023, according to a Commerce Department report Thursday. On a monthly basis, PCE accelerated 0.4%. The annual level was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate while the monthly reading was 0.1 percentage point below. Stripping out food and energy, core PCE showed a 3.4% annual rate after rising 0.3% for the month, both in line with consensus. The core reading was the highest since October 2023. Core PCE was 0.32% in May, on the low side of expectations but still the fourth highest monthly print in the last 12 months (3.9% annualized) The 12-month change, at 3.4%, is the highest reading since Oct. 2023. The 6-month annualized rate is above 4%. pic.twitter.com/Y5lHnFzbBM

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure — rose at a 4.1% annual rate in May, highlighting the central bank's challenge in reining in prices. The reading matched economists' forecasts for the PCE report to come in at 4.1% annually, according to financial data service FactSet. That compares with an ...

US inflation increased further in May, breaking above 4.0 percent for the first time in three years as the Middle East conflict boosted energy prices, and potentially drawing the Federal Reserve closer to raising interest rates this year. The personal consumption expenditures price index surged 4.1 percent in the 12 months through May, the largest increase ...