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Rates Spark: Swap lines imply some presssure
The market discount through to the end of March centred on the freezing of the Strait of Hormuz as critical. Fast-forward to this week, and equity markets impliedly think it's not that critical after all. The oil price, of course, has come under renewed upwards pressure, but only to the extent that it's the correct reaction to the ongoing closure of the Strait, and the threat from Iran not to negotiate until the US blockade is removed. And bond yields too have shown a tendency to edge higher, in tandem with a re-ratchet higher in front-end inflation expectations (albeit mild). We continue to find ourselves in an ... (full story)