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Rates Spark: Equities are back, but bonds are not - why?
To understand the market thinking on the war requires an understanding that markets are cold-hearted. The fact that negotiations broke down over the weekend is important, of course, but it's not the dominant input for markets. Wars between regional powers are not important for global markets. What matters is the ability to get stuff done, and to get hands on stuff. Last week, Iran had control of the Strait of Hormuz. This week, it's under the control of the US. While remaining a-political, that's a more market-friendly outcome, on the theory that the ultimate ambition is to re-open the Strait, fully and unrestricted. ... (full story)