Iran: Drafting protocol with Oman for Hormuz Strait traffic

Bravo I don't even have anything to add

Kertas. It's painful when things go against you (I assume you're referring to trading impacts). I think the same thing very often when massive moves go against me (though I don't voice it in the forums).

I guess the only thing I can offer to you, and anyone with a similar feeling at the moment, is: scale back size or sit out when the VIX is above 18. We are in a weird, wild environment.

These are NOT black swan events. There is a massive global energy crisis on the doorstep and things are VERY uncertain (VIX is still above 25)

For those newer to trading, the "Rule of 16" says a VIX of 16 = a 1% expected move in /ES. A VIX of 32 suggests that the S&P 500 is expected to move an average of 2% up or down every day for the next 30 days. And, obviously, this bleeds into all asset classes accordingly.

As the markets go higher, the number of ticks increases, and, thus, the dollar value of the daily swings does as well. When the /ES used to move 10 pts on a 1% day, that'd be $500/contract. Today, a 1% move is $3300/contract.

If the account balance can't support expected moves (and today's /es move was only ~1.5% down, so pretty much in line), then positions need to be smaller or removed.....or risk wipeout.

The most pain, obviously, comes from putting on a position at an extreme (i.e. initiating a short at today's low) and then watching it rip in the other direction. Those suck, no doubt, but if you're going to be aggressive and follow trends, you need to play in a risk defined way. Reversion to mean is the typical behavior. ......which is why it's probably more likely that the markets roll over into the weekend than continue the up move (at least without another catalyst).

Best of luck in trading.

too much is happening right now

From the comments I'd say the vast majority are bots.

Can't fault someone legitimately being upset at seeing a 1-2% move in a couple of minutes though. Undefined risk in this environment has be been risky, no question about it.

The sad part is: reversion nearly always happens. Hence the 3% retracement up in oil and the 0.75-1% move back down in equities.

....now if Washington were to come out and affirm/approve of such talks, we'd have the first Thursday since the war started ending solidly in the green.

We have nothing left. Today's all tp belongs to gambling. Illogical at all

The algorithm that are coded to make the trades based on tweets is also gambling. It has been that way since the internet boom, but under Trump, it seems unusually and speculatively high because Trump can't stop tweeting.

Iran likes money if they keep it closed no money they have no other choice but to open it and Trump knows it.

Right on cue:


Head of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council: US must stop any futile attempts, as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz won't return to what it was.

You are correct - Iran will NOT relinquish control of the Straight of Hormuz - VOLUNTARLY

Unlike Middle East Despots Trump will do as he says and frankly this weekend expect most of the Iranian electrical grid to go POP!

I don't know WHY the Iranian leaders are so strong minded but stupid.

Take the deal or go BOOM! Why is that hard to understand?

Once the people of Iran have had enough they will overthrow the religious zealots and restore Western values to Iran aka- the "Shaw" days of Iran return

Wouldn't that be positive VS restricting ships based on their political alignment?

better congrats trumptrums for triggering them

Happy Easter

This guy......the literal butt plug of forex factory

Just leverage down entirely.
Make your lot size small enough where a 300 pip move will only damage your account 5% max.

The emotions go away

thank you.

emotions = oversized

what does this have to do with trump?

Stop fucking complaining FFS.
Just stay out of the market.

EVERY SINGLE DAY there has been intense market moving tweets/dialogue.

STAY OUT OF THE MARKET or QUIT BITCHING.

If you have a proper strategy and a decent money management approach, then factors like Trump should not impact your trading that much. You just need count with considerably higher volatility and calculate it into your MMS.

Thankfully, there's still a proper trader here.
ForexFactory has gone to the dogs, loosers, whingers. Grow up people!

besttttttttttttttt but still trump drops pipebombs on truth before sleeping

spot on take!..assymetrical warfare taken to wallstreet's and trumps doorsteps..

THIS IS WHY MY TP IS HIT TNKS IRAN

i see

For what it's worth, Trumps 2017 market probably had the lowest consistent VIX of any president in the past, who knows how long. Never got above 17.5. That said, "traders" hated it because nothing happened for a year. I can't say a prolonged stay in the mid 20s is much "fun" either though for anything other than scalping.

The guy who molested his daughter in the shower is much better

lol

Who knows what it says though...that will be telling as well.

All I saw this morning were ships rounding the strait off the coast of Oman rather than just off Hormuz island.


As for whether or not Trump will "accept it".....

Part of me thinks: Trump can't say any Iranian proposal is good because he, Trump, wasn't the author.

On the other hand, it does allow him to say "See, with all of our posturing, we forced Iran to come to an agreement. I told you 'we won' and that the strait would open naturally"....and then start to get the hell out of there ASAP to ride a "win' into the midterms.

I REALLY hope you're wrong (for humanity's sake), but wouldn't be the least bit surprised if you are correct.

One thing is for sure: the president continues to assert that the job isn't done yet despite having "won the war".

Now, if Iran could capitulate at all and give the US/Trump a way to say "See? I TOLD you we won and that the strait would open naturally!", they might just jump at the chance to take the "w" into the midterms and get the heck out of there ASAP.

Unfortunately, I don't know that it is as simple as that.

What I would like to see is a continuation to the upside today for equities resulting in a nice, "risk on" positioning into the weekend........what I am ACTUALLY seeing is oil stabilizing and the VIX sticking at 25 despite the rally in equities and, perhaps more importantly, bonds (/zb).

Let's see what the afternoon hold. If oil finishes the day under $100 and the VIX below 22, we'll have something. Ships continue to move through either side of the strait (Oman & Iran).

fuckk fvg bois

Huw market go to day non enpolamment Boos what is going to du

you sounds like you blow your account

Sorry son