Iran says to set tolls for ships passing via Hormuz Strait

The most likely scenario is that murika will declare victory and disengage soon, refusing to pay Iran for damages or lifting sanctions - this will result in Iran imposing toll booth on the strait - first sold until they recover war damages, but eventually into permanent system.

Iraq invasion had around 500k murikan troops + gulf countries intact infrastructure and bases + coalition forces from all around the world............ Iran is 3x the size and 4x the population and x amount stronger and more capable than Iraq in every sense, including support from China and Russia - land invasion is just psyop and chest pumping for home audience.

There is also the Bab-El-Mandeb in the red sea, which is another card Iran and its allies hold - this war was lost before it began - war is won strategically, not by bombing buildings or killing leaders - which both can be replaced.

The meaningful plan was to starve Iran into submission. As I understand, before the invasion, the economy was suffering hyperinflation, and basics like food and water were becoming a serious problem. The wheels of the car were already coming off. If deprived of oil revenue, it seems unlikely the government would last a full year, although there is no certainty there.

An invasion wouldn't be of the whole country. Rather, they would want to secure the coast of the Straits and hold Kharg Island for leverage. There is no way to do this without casualties and it looks like Trump doesn't have the backbone for this.

The Bab-El-Mandeb is a nice card, but not really a game changer. The Suez has been shut before and current traffic is a fraction of what it was before the Houthis started targeting ships. The Straits are the master card. Although countries like Japan and Korea have deep reserves, they will completely cease to function in a year and this will cause global contagion on par or worse than 2008.

Leaders and buildings can be replaced if the regime stays strong. Will it? It is a gamble either way.

The chronic inflation is due to sanctions and mismanagement, however, Iran is self-sufficient country, with one of the highest IQ's in the world, only behind China - all weapons, natural resource exploitation tech, technology, medicine etc are indigenously produced - thanks to Sanctions - There is logical contradiction: Iran cannot be the most sanctioned country and incompetent while taking care of 90 million people and net exporter... think about it, if Iran was not a real threat, why target it? it have nothing to do with the jews in occupied Palestine or nukes, thats a narrative for dummies - this is real geopolitical play here!

Its net exporter in food, including running farms around the world, in places like Brazil to meet domestic demands in certain staples - Its geography is the size of western Europe - with 4-5 climates, including mountainous snowy areas, rain-forests, deserts and 2 coasts - the water issue was a seasonal problem, as weather fluctuates - Iran is NOT running out of water lol, this is just bad propaganda.

Closing the strait of Hormuz for western aligned companies, including Bab-El-Mandeb will destroy Europe, including the petro dollar - if Iran is invaded as you mentioned, it will target all the gas and oil facilities in the region, it will take many years to rebuild these facilities.
- Because any country who allow its land or air to be used to attack Iran will receive the same retaliation back - today it destroyed data centers and steel factories in UAE and Bahrain.

It is a heavy underdog in this war, but it holds all the cards - this war was very badly timed and lost by murika as soon as it started.

You will see the coming weeks, I know Iran very well - I am from the region, not someone who parrot what I read from distance!

Iran holds some cards but not all. I guess time will tell as to the final outcome. There are too many variables to predict an outcome with certainty. I do find it interesting that Iran has a mirror of the global supply chain domestically.