Powell: Implications of middle east developments uncertain

In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 17–18, 2026, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2026 to 2028 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. The Fed held rates steady. There was one dissent. The median rate “dot” was unchanged, as was the 12-7 split on cuts vs. no cuts. The median core PCE inflation forecast revised to 2.7% from 2.5%. The median long-run rate “dot” revised up to 3.1%. pic.twitter.com/5qflQVsz6A FED PROJECTIONS SHOW SEVEN POLICYMAKERS SAW NO RATE CUT IN 2026, ONE SEES RATES HIGHER IN 2027 FED POLICYMAKERS SEE 4.4% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT END OF 2026 VERSUS 4.4% IN DECEMBER PROJECTIONS

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. FOMC STATEMENT COMPARE pic.twitter.com/UcWP3V984g FED SAYS IS 'ATTENTIVE' TO RISKS TO BOTH SIDES OF DUAL MANDATE FED: VOTE IN FAVOR OF POLICY WAS 11-1, WITH GOVERNOR MIRAN DISSENTING IN FAVOR OF 25-BASIS-POINT RATE CUT

POWELL: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN NEAR TERM HAVE RISEN POWELL: LAST YEAR'S RATE CUTS BRING TO PLAUSIBLE ESTIMATE OF NEUTRAL ... POWELL: THERE WILL BE SOME EFFECTS ON INFLATION COMING FORWARD *POWELL: HIGHER ENERGY PRICES WILL PUSH UP OVERALL INFLATION *POWELL: TOO SOON TO KNOW FULL ECONOMIC EFFECTS FROM MIDDLE EAST

*POWELL: IF WE DON'T SEE INFLATION PROGRESS, WON'T SEE RATE CUT Fed's Powell: Most longer-term expectations are consistent with the 2% goal. FED'S POWELL: PROGRESS ON GOODS INFLATION IS KEY FOCUS; CRUCIAL TO SEE REDUCTION THIS YEAR POWELL: 'WE JUST DON'T KNOW' WHAT EFFECTS OF ENERGY RISE WILL BE FED'S POWELL: WON'T TAKE LOOKING THROUGH INFLATION LIGHTLY; ENERGY PASS-THROUGH QUESTION ONLY ARISES AFTER GOODS INFLATION BOX IS CHECKED; CONTEXT OF FIVE YEARS ABOVE TARGET MATTERS

FED'S POWELL: PAST RATE CUTS SHOULD HELP STABILIZE THE LABOR MARKET. ... POWELL: INFLATION OVERSHOOT IS MAINLY FROM GOODS AND TARIFFS ... Fed's Powell: A long period of higher gas prices would weigh on consumption, but I don't know if that will happen. FED'S POWELL: IF EVER GOING TO SKIP AN SEP, THIS WOULD BE A GOOD ONE ... *POWELL: OIL SHOCK WILL PUT SOME DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON EMPLOYMENT