Goolsbee: Remarks at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Conference

*TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERING NEW NATIONAL-SECURITY TARIFFS ON HALF A DOZEN INDUSTRIES, SOURCES SAY -- WSJ *NEW TARIFFS COULD COVER POWER-GRID AND TELECOM EQUIPMENT, LARGE-SCALE BATTERIES, OTHER INDUSTRIES, SOURCES SAY -- WSJ ... The Trump administration is considering new national security tariffs on a half-dozen industries in the wake of a Supreme Court decision last week that invalidated many of the president’s second-term levies

BoE Gov. Bailey: I will go into the coming meetings asking whether a cut is justified BANK OF ENGLAND'S BAILEY: WE DO EXPECT INFLATION TO RETURN TO CLOSE TO TARGET IN APRIL Bailey: Report to the Treasury Committee In the 15 months since my last report to the Treasury Committee in November 2024, monetary policy has had to navigate an increase in headline inflation against the backdrop of continuing underlying disinflation. To ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target, monetary policy has been set to balance, on the one hand, upside risk to inflation from lingering persistence in domestic inflationary pressures stemming from the big inflationary shocks of recent years, and downside risks to inflation from subdued economic growth and a weakening labour market on the other. Gradual progress on underlying disinflation and receding risks from prolonged cost pressures have allowed the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut Bank Rate four times, from 4.75% in November 2024 to 3.75% today. Twelve-month inflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 3.4% in the latest data for December 2025, up from its most recent trough of 1.7% in September 2024 – the latest datapoint at the time of my previous report – but down from a peak of 3.8% in July, August and September 2025. Looking ahead, Bank staff expect CPI inflation to decline further to about 3% in January, February and March this year, before reaching a level close the 2% target from April. In the latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR) from February 2026, in the central case, inflation is then projected to stay close to the 2% target for the r BOE'S BAILEY SAYS EXPECT TO SEE SCOPE FOR SOME FURTHER EASING OF POLICY, PROBABLY DURING THIS YEAR ... BOE'S BAILEY: RATE CUT AT NEXT MEETING IS A GENUINELY OPEN QUESTION

Monetary policy since August 2024 can be characterised by the gradual and careful removal of policy restrictiveness. Since the August 2024 MPC meeting, the Committee has been engaged in a cycle of cuts to Bank Rate from its post-pandemic peak and has continued to lower the stock of gilts held in the APF. 2. The reduction in policy restrictiveness was allowed by a rapid fall in headline CPI inflation from its 11% peak in October-2022, to close to 2% target levels by the autumn of 2024. While much of that decline in inflation reflected the unwinding of the external shocks to energy, food and tradable goods prices that drove the initial inflation surge, the Committee judged that restrictive monetary policy had also played an important role in containing second‑round effects and stabilising longer‑term inflation expectations. Just in | Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill acknowledges that the central bank may have previously focused too heavily on achieving inflation targets, potentially overlooking future economic risks. BOE'S PILL SAYS DISINFLATION PROCESS INTACT, STILL INCOMPLETE BOE'S PILL SAYS UNDERLYING INFLATION 2.5% TO 3%, MORE WORK TO DO BoE's Pill: I see risks to inflation on the upside, caution is needed.