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BoE's Bailey: I will go into the coming meetings asking whether a cut is justified
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Bailey: Report to the Treasury Committee
In the 15 months since my last report to the Treasury Committee in November 2024, monetary policy has had to navigate an increase in headline inflation against the backdrop of continuing underlying disinflation. To ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target, monetary policy has been set to balance, on the one hand, upside risk to inflation from lingering persistence in domestic inflationary pressures stemming from the big inflationary shocks of recent years, and downside risks to inflation from subdued economic growth and a weakening labour market on the other. Gradual progress on underlying ... (full story)
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Trader#5018
Feb 24, 2026 8:43am
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This report covers the period from February 2025 to February 2026. I began this period believing that the overall trend of disinflation towards our target continued and so some further removal of monetary policy restrictiveness was likely to be appropriate. My subsequent voting record reflects my view that there have been two-sided risks to our central projection, but that the risk of inflation persistence has outweighed that of weaker demand over the past year. My voting record also reflects the high importance I have placed on ensuring inflation returns sustainably to target given we are now in the fifth year of inflation remaining significantly above 2%. In this rate cutting cycle, my monetary policy strategy has been one of risk management, in which I have weighed the costs of maintaining too much versus too little restrictiveness. I believe the cost of the latter is greater. Generally, the data over this period has suggested the disinflation process continued. The data has also shown the UK real economy to be more resilient than forecast (in year-on-year terms, particularly in the first half of 2025), though consumption had remained subdued and the labour market had loosened slightly more than wed expected. I voted to cut Bank Rate last May, but then - given subsequent reductions in Bank Rate - voted to hold Bank Rate to ensure monetary policy remai BOE'S GREENE: DISINFLATION PROCESS MAY BE STALLING. BoE's Greene suggests slowing the pace of interest rate cuts is appropriate
Monetary policy since August 2024 can be characterised by the gradual and careful removal of policy restrictiveness. Since the August 2024 MPC meeting, the Committee has been engaged in a cycle of cuts to Bank Rate from its post-pandemic peak and has continued to lower the stock of gilts held in the APF. 2. The reduction in policy restrictiveness was allowed by a rapid fall in headline CPI inflation from its 11% peak in October-2022, to close to 2% target levels by the autumn of 2024. While much of that decline in inflation reflected the unwinding of the external shocks to energy, food and tradable goods prices that drove the initial inflation surge, the Committee judged that restrictive monetary policy had also played an important role in containing second‑round effects and stabilising longer‑term inflation expectations. Just in | Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill acknowledges that the central bank may have previously focused too heavily on achieving inflation targets, potentially overlooking future economic risks. BOE'S PILL SAYS DISINFLATION PROCESS INTACT, STILL INCOMPLETE BOE'S PILL SAYS UNDERLYING INFLATION 2.5% TO 3%, MORE WORK TO DO BoE's Pill: I see risks to inflation on the upside, caution is needed.
Fed's Barkin: Clear Sense That Job Market Has Loosened - Hard To Calibrate What's Going On With Labor Supply - Inflation Data Has Been Consistently Above Target - Firms Say They Have Very Limited Pricing Power - Seeing Disinflation Across The Economy, But Wants More Confirmation
FED'S BARKIN: FIRMS SAY THEY HAVE VERY LIMITED PRICING POWER FED'S BARKIN: EXPECTS LATEST TARIFF MOVES WON'T CHANGE INFLATION DYNAMICS THAT MUCH FED'S BARKIN SAYS THE CORE FACTORS FAVOR THE CONSUMER SECTOR AND DRIVE DEMAND FED'S BARKIN SAYS A REDUCTION IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE INVESTMENT COULD NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE ECONOMY ...