Markets Watching NFP Pulse US Economy and Inflation

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and financial activities lost jobs. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note. U.S. payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.3% Job growth was stronger than expected to start 2026, providing some relief to concerns about the state of the U.S. labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 for January, above the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 55,000, according to seasonally adjusted figures the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday. The total also was an improvement over December, which saw a gain of 48,000 after a slight downward revision. The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, below the forecast to stay unchanged at 4.4% from the prior month. The report, delayed nearly a week by the partial government shutdown that ended Feb. 3, held consistent with a US LABOR DEPARTMENT PAYROLLS BENCHMARK REVISIONS: THE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT LEVEL FOR MARCH 2025 WAS REVISED DOWNWARD BY 898,000 ... THE JOBS STORY JUST GOT REWRITTEN On February 11, 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics slashed its 2025 payroll numbers in its annual benchmark update. What changed: Total job growth was revised from +584,000 to +181,000. That’s an average of just +15,000 jobs per month, not…

Markets have one eye on inflation, but tomorrow’s US jobs report is the real trigger that could flip the Fed narrative and send rates, the dollar, and risk assets lurching in seconds. Tomorrow’s US jobs report lands at an awkward moment for markets. Investors are trying to decide whether the US economy is merely cooling toward trend, or if the labor market ...

The jobs report Wednesday will give markets a lot to consider, as investors parse through fresh data and a batch of revisions. Economists expect that January’s nonfarm payrolls report will show growth that was nil or not much better during the month. On top of that, annual revisions also could reveal that the U.S. economy going back to early 2024 had ...