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US NFP Jan Preview – 11th Feb
Markets have one eye on inflation, but tomorrow’s US jobs report is the real trigger that could flip the Fed narrative and send rates, the dollar, and risk assets lurching in seconds. Tomorrow’s US jobs report lands at an awkward moment for markets. Investors are trying to decide whether the US economy is merely cooling toward trend, or if the labor market is finally rolling over in a way that forces the Federal Reserve to pivot sooner than expected. With inflation data published later in the week, the NFP print becomes the first major volatility catalyst, and it is likely to set the tone for rates, the dollar, ... (full story)
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Today’s main focus is the US January Nonfarm Payrolls report due tonight, which is likely to set the tone for markets this week. The market expects payrolls to rise to 70K (previous 50K), the unemployment rate to hold at 4.4%, and average hourly earnings (m/m) to remain modest at 0.3%. While headline job growth is forecast to pick up, recent indicators ...
The Labor Department will publish much-anticipated jobs data for January on Wednesday, as well as sweeping revisions to 2025 numbers that could show far fewer new positions were added to the US economy than previously thought. Private data released last week indicated the labor market remained bruising in January for out-of-work Americans, with little in ...
A wobbling U.S. jobs market was the Federal Reserve’s biggest worry last fall. Now the focus appears to have shifted back to stubborn inflation. Investors will get twin reports this week on employment and consumer prices that will help set the stage for when the Fed cuts interest rates this year — if it reduces them at all. The central bank cut a key U.S. ...
