U.S. Inflation Likely Hit 18-Month High in November as Tariffs Bite

At its meeting ending on 17 December 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 5–4 to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 3.75%. Four members voted to maintain Bank Rate at 4%. CPI inflation has fallen since the previous meeting, to 3.2%. Although above the 2% target, it is now expected to fall back towards target more quickly in the near term. Reflecting restrictive monetary policy, and consistent with evidence of subdued economic growth and building slack in the labour market, pay growth and services price inflation have continued to ease. Monetary policy is being set to ensure CPI inflation settles sustainably at 2% in the medium term, which involves balancing the risks around achieving this. The risk from greater inflation persistence has become somewhat less pronounced since the previous meeting, while the risk to medium-term inflation from weaker demand remains. The extent of further easing in monetary policy will depend on the evolution of the outlook for inflation. The restrictiveness of policy has fallen as Bank BoE's Bailey Switches Vote To Rate Cut - Bailey Says We Still Think Rates Are On Gradual Downward Path - Bailey: With Every Cut, How Much Further We Go Becomes ‘Closer Call’ - Staff Forecast Zero Growth In Q4 GDP (Nov Forecast: +0.3% Q/Q), Underlying Growth Around 0.2% Q/Q BoE's Taylor: Neutral around 3%, should head there sooner. BoE's Lombardelli: CPI upside risks are a worry, we may need slower easing. BoE’s Greene: CPI risks to downside, backs cautious easing. BoE's Breeden: Upside risks to inflation have diminished. BoE's Pill: Easing case…