Goolsbee: New Chicago Fed labor market indicators proven remarkably accurate, but still must be normalized against BLS jobs data

Fed's Goolsbee: My unease is about frontloading rate cuts too heavily Fed's goolsbee dissented over the rate cut because he believed the Fed should wait for more information, particularly about inflation. GOOLSBEE: MOST DATA SHOW STABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THE LABOR MARKET ONLY MODERATELY COOLING || STILL OPTIMISTIC THAT RATES CAN COME DOWN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OVER THE NEXT YEAR, BUT CONCERNED ABOUT FRONT-LOADING GIVEN THE INFLATION OF THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS Statement from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on FOMC Dissent At the December 10 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, I dissented on the decision to cut the federal funds rate. While I voted to lower rates at the September and October meetings, I believe we should have waited to get more data, especially about inflation, before lowering rates further. Waiting to take this matter up in the new year would not have entailed much additional risk and would have come with the added benefit of updated economic data which have been absent lately. Given that inflation has been above our target for four and a half years, further progress on it has been stalled for several months, and almost all the businesspeople and consumers we have spoken to in the district lately identify prices as a main concern, I felt the more prudent course would have been to wait for more information. If the labor market were deteriorating rapidly, it would be a different calculation. But most of the data we have show stable economic growth with a labor market only mode Fed's Goolsbee explains vote against December rate cut, says patience 'feels like the wiser choice' Chicago Federal Reserve president Austan Goolsbee said Friday that his vote against the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates this week resulted from his preference to wait for more data on inflation before another cut. “Waiting to take this matter up in the new year would not have entailed much additional risk and would have come with the added benefit of updated economic data which have been absent lately,” Goolsbee said in a statement. Goolsbee added he remains “optimistic” rates can come down a “significant amount” over the next year. Goolsbee has repeatedly said he’s uneasy about too heavily front-loading rate cuts, and just assuming that inflation will be transitory. “Given the last several years, getting more evidence first feels like the wiser choice,” he said.

Fed's Paulson: Still more concerned by the labor market than inflation FED’S PAULSON: INFLATION TOO HIGH, JOB MARKET ‘BENDING, BUT NOT BREAKING’ FED’S PAULSON: CURRENT FED POLICY ‘SOMEWHAT RESTRICTIVE,’ SHOULD MODERATE INFLATION Economic Outlook Thank you, John. And thank you, Mike. I’m looking forward to taking your questions in a few minutes. It is great to be in Wilmington, and I want to thank the Delaware Chamber for inviting me to speak today. This is my first time in Delaware since joining the Philly Fed back in July. I have heard a lot about how the Philly Fed has benefited from productive relationships with many of you over the years. I look forward to many years of continued partnership. Before we jump into the Q&A, I’d like to take a few minutes to describe how I see the economy and what this means for monetary policy. With the end of the year quickly approaching, this is a good time to take stock, looking back at how the economy has evolved over the last year or so and also at what may lie ahead. Before I begin, let me remind everyone that these are my own views and do not necessarily reflect those of my colleagues on the Federal Op

Fed's Goolsbee: I don't think the Fed is preparing for an onslaught from Trump. GOOLSBEE SAYS VOTE TO REAPPOINT FED REGIONAL PRESIDENTS TOOK PLACE ON A NORMAL SCHEDULE BUT WAS ANNOUNCED EARLIER Fed's goolsbee: The restart of the Fed security purchases is technical to assure rate control. Fed's Goolsbee: If reserves are not ample, we can't set rates where we want.