The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US Declined Again in September | Metals Mine

  • The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US Declined Again in September

    From prnewswire.com

    The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3% in September 2025 to 98.3 (2016=100), after also declining by 0.3% in August (upwardly revised from an originally reported 0.5% decline). Overall, the LEI fell by 2.1% over the six months between March and September 2025, a faster rate of decline than its 1.3% contraction over the previous six-month period (September 2024 to March 2025). "The US LEI fell again in September, marking a second consecutive decline," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Weakening expectations ... (full story)

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Trader#E14A
Dec 9, 2025 9:45am
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LEI “fell again … second consecutive decline.”

It signals slowing economic activity at the end of 2025 and into early 2026.

Growth is “fragile and uneven” as:

Consumers cool after strong mid-year spending,

Businesses adjust to tariffs,

Q4 is disrupted by the federal government shutdown.

GDP forecast:

+1.8% in 2025

+1.5% in 2026

So: slow growth, not a crash.

The current economy is still expanding, just slowly.

LEI weakness is about the future pace of growth, not that we’re already in a recession.

“Growth is slowing and fragile, but the economy is still expanding. Expect weaker GDP into 2026, not a sudden collapse.”

Soft-landing + hawkish-cut Fed. Tomorrow will be very telling with the dot plot/ future guidance but expect less easing going into 2026. Anything can happen
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