Bets surge on Kevin Hassett becoming next Fed chair | Metals Mine

  • Bets surge on Kevin Hassett becoming next Fed chair

    From morningstar.com

    Bets on Kevin Hassett becoming the next Federal Reserve chair have surged over the last 24 hours, placing him as clear favorite to succeed Jerome Powell next year. Traders on the Kalshi prediction exchange now see a 54% chance that President Donald Trump will choose the current White House National Economic Council Director to take over leadership of the U.S. central bank when Powell's term ends in May 2026. The Kalshi odds show that Hassett has for a few weeks become the most likely to be nominated by Trump, as Fed governor Christopher Waller and former governor Kevin Warsh fell away. The new bump in bets on Hassett ... (full story)

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Vancarbon
Nov 26, 2025 5:01am — Edited
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Interesting .

Whoever is the Fed chair will have to deal with stagflation. A slowing economy and rising inflation are not a good mix .

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000 in September — the strongest reading since April

The November job market report — originally scheduled for December 5 — will not be released until December 16, after the FOMC meets, leaving policymakers to act without a full understanding of the latest labor dynamics.

September headline consumer prices increased by 3% year-over-year

Core CPI — that excludes food and energy — also rose 3%

Lowering rates at a time when “ affordability “ is the buzz word , particularly if the economy is not as weak as being portrayed by the Doves on the Fed for political purposes , will guarantee that the CPI rate will exceed 3% excessively .

Inflation at those levels coming into the midterms is a disaster for any party . Whoever takes the reins better be pretty prudent with one eye on the fiscal situation and the other on the economy rather than risk assets .

Inflation is not being controlled and any lowering of rates will ignite the flame and allow distributors to raise prices to counter tariff margin pressures .

That’s a heady mix for anyone to address .

NB - Don’t confuse the real economy with the market which hinges on the Tech sector and a few elite stocks . The wealthiest 10% of Americans care about risk assets far more than the other 90% , despite having 401ks
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Vancarbon
Nov 26, 2025 5:36am
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Affordability

“America's deepening affordability crisis summed up in 5 charts”

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/aff...-health-costs/

It’s not just this administration who is responsible btw
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Trader#E14A
Nov 26, 2025 5:09am
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Quoting Vancarbon
Interesting . Whoever is the Fed chair will have to deal with stagflation. A slowing economy and rising inflation are not a good mix . Nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000 in September — the strongest reading since April The November job market report — originally scheduled for December 5 — will not be released until December 16, after the FOMC meets, leaving policymakers to act without a full understanding of the latest labor dynamics. September headline consumer prices increased by 3% year-over-year Core CPI — that excludes...
I liked this take. well received
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