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UK's OBR outlook leaked: Real GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5% on average over the forecast, 0.3% slower than March projection
Added at 5:45am
Added at 5:45am
Added at 5:48am
- The OBR has broken **the entire Budget**. It's extraordinary. Completely unprecedented. Hyperbole doesn't do it justice
Reeves will unveil £26billion in tax rises, ultimately leaving her with £22billion worth of fiscal headroom
* The tax burden will hit a record 28 per cent as a proportion of GDP in 2031
* The freeze in income tax thresholds raises £8billion. It will lead to 780,000 more basic rate taxpayers and 920,000 more higher rate taxpayers
* The tax raid on pension contributions raises £4.7billion
* Pay per mile levy on electric cars raises £1.4billion
* Cuts to writing down capital allowances £1.5billion
* Gambling taxes £1.1billion
Added at 5:48am
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Economic and fiscal outlook
This Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) sets out our central forecast and the uncertainties that surround it for the five years to 2030-31, taking account of recent data and government policies announced since our last forecast and up to and including the November 2025 Autumn Budget. The forecasts presented in this document represent our collective view as the three independent members of the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC). We take full responsibility for the judgements that underpin them and for the conclusions we have reached. As always, we have been greatly supported in our work by the staff of the ... (full story)
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