BOJ preps markets for near-term hike as weak yen overshadows politics

*KEVIN HASSETT SEEN AS FRONTRUNNER IN TRUMP FED CHAIR SEARCH WH Sr. Adviser Hassett emerges as the top pick as the Fed Chair search nears its end - People Familiar.

UK'S OFFICE FOR BUDGET RESPONSIBILITY OUTLOOK: REAL GDP IS FORECAST TO GROW BY 1.5 PER CENT ON AVERAGE OVER THE FORECAST, 0.3 PERCENTAGEPOINTS SLOWER THAN WE PROJECTED IN MARCH, DUE TO LOWER UNDERLYING PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH UK OBR ECONOMIC AND FISCAL OUTLOOK: CURRENT BUDGET SURPLUS MARGIN 21.7 BLN STG IN 2029-30 VS 9.9 BLN STG IN MARCH OMG has the OBR document just leaked? Reuters reporting details from inside the Budget NOW. Blimey. pic.twitter.com/nYv1CuXcca The OBR has broken **the entire Budget**. It's extraordinary. Completely unprecedented. Hyperbole doesn't do it justice Reeves will unveil £26billion in tax rises, ultimately leaving her with £22billion worth of fiscal headroom * The tax burden will hit a record 28 per cent as… Economic and fiscal outlook This Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) sets out our central forecast and the uncertainties that surround it for the five years to 2030-31, taking account of recent data and government policies announced since our last forecast and up to and including the November 2025 Autumn Budget. The forecasts presented in this document represent our collective view as the three independent members of the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC). We take full responsibility for the judgements that underpin them and for the conclusions we have reached. As always, we have been greatly supported in our work by the staff of the OBR. We are very grateful for their hard work and expertise. We have also drawn on the work and expertise of officials across government in preparing these forecasts. We are grateful for their engagement and insight. During the production of this forecast we learned that a respected former colleague, Pavandeep Dhami, sadly passed away. Pav worked at the O

Annual consumers price inflation increased to 3 percent in the September quarter. However, with spare capacity in the economy, inflation is expected to fall to around 2 percent by mid-2026. Economic activity was weak over mid-2025 but is picking up. Lower interest rates are encouraging household spending, and the labour market is stabilising. The exchange rate has fallen, supporting exporters’ incomes. Global economic growth has benefited from strong AI-related investment but is expected to slow in 2026 as trade barriers weigh on activity. Risks to the inflation outlook are balanced. Greater caution on the part of households and businesses could slow the pace of New Zealand’s economic recovery. Alternatively, the recovery could be faster and stronger than expected if domestic demand proves more responsive to lower interest rates. The Committee voted to reduce the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent. Future moves in the OCR will depend on how the outlook for medium-term inflation and the economy evolve. RBNZ: LOWER INTEREST RATES ARE ENCOURAGING HOUSEHOLD SPENDING, AND THE LABOUR MARKET IS STABILISING RBNZ SEES OFFICIAL CASH RATE AT 2.25% IN MARCH 2026 (PVS 2.55%) Looks like a hawkish cut RBNZ: Inflation likely to fall to near 2% by mid-2026, supported by spare economic capacity. RBNZ minutes show the committee voted 5-1 to cut the OCR by 25 bps to 2.25%. RBNZ: After a weak mid-2025, the economy is beginning to gain momentum.