How inflation could surprise us in 2026 | Metals Mine

  • How inflation could surprise us in 2026

    From think.ing.com

    Like most economists, I’ve been busy peering into the crystal ball for 2026. It’s foggy, naturally, and dare I say it, a bit… boring. The consensus? Reasonable US growth, underpinned by AI and high income consumers. Europe looks steady, though buoyed by German stimulus. The Fed is edging closer to neutral – albeit perhaps now more slowly – while the ECB is already there and is likely to keep rates on hold through 2026. Our full outlook will be with you in a couple of weeks, but my FX colleagues think the net effect is a weaker dollar and a low volatility environment that favours the carry trade. But life ... (full story)

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Trader#E622
Nov 22, 2025 3:40am
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Want to hear what my crystal ball has showed me?

High inflation that will cause big recession, the FFR all the way down with other CB following, except BoJ.
JPY carry trade will be over causing margin calls across the board. Banks will go down due to losses on bonds and zombie offices. 2026. will be the year of the great sell-off across the board. Everything will be hit, although Gold (after the primary sell-off) will be propelled even higher as it'll be seen as the only safe haven... Silver probably as well.

Hard assets will make it through, stocks will implode, banks will go down, as for crypto I'm not exactly sure but I think some of crypto coins will cease to exist, the yield on the debt will surge astronomically higher causing bankruptcies for both banks and individuals. Housing market will get even worse and recession will not impact the prices all that much due to high inflation that will continue to be a problem. Fed will exacerbate the problem with QE, because they either do not understand how the economy works or they are paid by someone to crush the economy into ground by destroying the USD almost completely.

In conclusion, my crystal balls suggests there is no way that the economy makes it past 2026. and despite the Fed's everchanging stance on the FFR, it suggests that the FFR will go all the way down. The final error from the Fed.
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