US: The Big Economic Questions for 2026

Fed’s Collins: “Fed policy is ‘mildly restrictive’ and that’s appropriate for current economy.” “Have not made decision about December FOMC meeting outcome.” “Still sees reasons to be hesitant about December rate cut.”

It is a pleasure to be here in Vienna. The relationship between central banks and governments has evolved substantially over the centuries. Historically, central banks were often created to provide governments with financing. But if monetary history teaches us one lesson, it is that central banks kept under the thumb of the state tend to generate inflation. This insight emerged only gradually. In the early 19th century, Napoleon Bonaparte – who founded the Banque de France – is said to have acknowledged that a central bank should serve the state, but not be excessively dominated by it. Well, that was a start at least. Over time, however, and especially in the second half of the 20th century, recognition grew that the more operationally independent a central bank became, the lower and less volatile inflation outcomes were. This relationship is well established in the empirical literature. But there is always the concern ECB PRESIDENT CHRISTINE LAGARDE WARNS AGAINST SEEING MONETARY POLICY AS A SOLUTION TO DEBT PROBLEMS.