ADP: US job growth is sluggish, but new hires are on the upswing. How? | Metals Mine

  • ADP: US job growth is sluggish, but new hires are on the upswing. How?

    From adpresearch.com

    Hiring has slowed from earlier in the year, so one would think that new hires—which we define as workers added to an employer payroll in the last three months—would be a shrinking share of the workforce. Instead, they’re on the upswing. What gives? In October, new hires accounted for 4.4 percent of all employees, ADP payroll data shows, up from 3.9 percent a year ago. This growing share of new hires would seem to run counter to the slowed pace of hiring. That contradiction tells us a lot about today’s jobs market. New hires typically fluctuates with the business cycle, but the aging U.S. workforce means that ... (full story)

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Trader#E14A
Nov 18, 2025 8:28am
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NER Pulse Oct avg ~+3.4k/wk (sluggish), latest –2.5k; claims 232k/1.96m. New-hire share up because firms are backfilling exits (aging workforce), not expanding. Macro = cooling, not cracking → Fed hold bias intact medium term; near-term USD still sticky
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Trader#3A9C
Nov 18, 2025 5:38pm
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yes
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