Fed’s Powell: Notes inflation excluding tariff effects is not far from the 2% target

FED’S POWELL: ABSOLUTELY COMMITTED TO BRINGING INFLATION BACK TO 2%; SAYS THE FED’S COMMITMENT IS CREDIBLE AND FIRM POWELL: DON'T THINK WE'LL HAVE A VERY GRANULAR UNDERSTANDING OF ECONOMY WHILE SHUTDOWN IS ON Fed's Powell: Could imagine shutdown could affect December meeting. FED’S POWELL: ACKNOWLEDGES POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING MORE CAUTION IN THE ABSENCE OF DATA, THOUGH NOT COMMITTING TO SLOWING DOWN — SAYS SUCH A SCENARIO IS IMAGINABLE POWELL: MUCH OF THE TIME THE LAYOFFS ARE ABOUT AI; YES IT COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR JOB CREATION

POWELL: DATA AVAILABLE SUGGESTS OUTLOOK FOR EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE SEPT MEETING *POWELL: LABOR MARKET APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY COOLING *POWELL: INFLATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED Fed's Powell: Prior to the shutdown, data showed that growth may be on a firmer trajectory. DOWNSIDE RISKS: *POWELL: SHUTDOWN WILL TEMPORARILY WEIGH ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY *POWELL: JOB GAINS HAVE SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY" *POWELL: DOWNSIDE RISKS TO EMPLOYMENT APPEAR TO HAVE RISEN FED’S POWELL: AVAILABLE EVIDENCE SHOWS LAYOFFS AND HIRING REMAIN LOW, WHILE JOB AVAILABILITY AND HIRING DIFFICULTY CONTINUE TO DECLINE

*POWELL: NEAR-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS HAVE MOVED UP *POWELL: MOST LONGER-TERM EXPECTATIONS CONSISTENT WITH 2% GOAL *POWELL: HIGHER TARIFFS ARE PUSHING UP PRICES FOR SOME GOODS *POWELL: REASONABLE BASE CASE IS SHORT-LIVED TARIFF INFLATION *POWELL: IN NEAR TERM, INFLATION RISKS ARE TILTED TO UPSIDE POWELL: RISK OF MORE PERSISTENT INFLATION NEEDS TO BE MANAGED *POWELL: THERE IS NO RISK-FREE PATH FOR POLICY FED’S POWELL: MUST TAKE A BALANCED APPROACH AS THE BALANCE OF RISKS HAS SHIFTED, AND WE REMAIN WELL POSITIONED