October 2025 Metals Options Update

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months. In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting, and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting. FOMC STATEMENT COMPARE: pic.twitter.com/1xW7cnChGP *FED CUTS TARGET RANGE FOR BENCHMARK RATE BY 25 BPS, TO 3.75%-4% *FED SAYS IT WILL STOP SHRINKING BALANCE SHEET ON DEC. 1 *FED SAYS SCHMID DISSENTED IN FAVOR OF NO RATE CHANGE *FED SAYS MIRAN DISSENTED IN FAVOR OF HALF-POINT CUT

The Canadian economy is adjusting to steep US tariffs on several industries and coping with elevated uncertainty. Tariffs have led to a fall in the demand for Canadian goods, affecting the broader economy. The reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is also leading to higher costs. Total inflation has been around 2%, while underlying inflation has continued to be about 2½%. With US tariffs and limited Canadian counter-tariffs in place, the effects of the trade conflict on growth and inflation in Canada are becoming clearer. Exports to the United States have fallen, and business investment has declined. The structural shift in the Canada-US trade relationship has put the economy on a lower path. At the same time, the reconfiguration of global trade and the restructuring of the Canadian economy are adding costs and putting upward pressure on inflation. Considerable uncertainty remains around US tariffs and how changes to global trade relationships will affect economic growth and consumer prices in Canada. This uncertainty includes the review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. How other major structural changes—such as shifting demographics and the adoption of artificial intelligence—will affect the Canadian economy is also unclear. The effects of these developments on output and inflation will play out over many years. Monetary policy cannot offset the long-term implications of US tariffs or other sources of structural change. Th BoC: Inflation to average 2.0% in 2025 (down from 2.3% in Jan), 2.1% in 2026 (unchanged), 2.1% in 2027. BoC: potential output growth expected to slow to 1.0% in 2026 from 1.6% in 2025; seen rising to 1.3% in 2027. BoC: Nominal neutral interest rate is assumed to be in the estimated range of 2.25% to 3.25%.

The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It performs five general functions to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, the public interest. The Federal Reserve conducts the nation’s monetary policy to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the U.S. ...