Gold Rises After Three-Day Drop Before Expected US Rate Cut

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual practice of providing a projection for the global and Canadian economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than-usual range of risks. While the global economy has been resilient to the historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about 3¼% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027. In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened. Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar. Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover. BOC SAYS IT EXPECTS INFLATIONARY PRESSURES TO EASE IN THE MONTHS AHEAD BOC: CANADIAN LABOR MARKET REMAINS SOFT; EXCESS CAPACITY IN THE ECONOMY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND BE TAKEN UP GRADUALLY Macklem says current policy rate is "about the right level" BOC: IF THE OUTLOOK CHANGES WE ARE PREPARED TO RESPOND

The Canadian economy is adjusting to steep US tariffs on several industries and coping with elevated uncertainty. Tariffs have led to a fall in the demand for Canadian goods, affecting the broader economy. The reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is also leading to higher costs. Total inflation has been around 2%, while underlying inflation has continued to be about 2½%. With US tariffs and limited Canadian counter-tariffs in place, the effects of the trade conflict on growth and inflation in Canada are becoming clearer. Exports to the United States have fallen, and business investment has declined. The structural shift in the Canada-US trade relationship has put the economy on a lower path. At the same time, the reconfiguration of global trade and the restructuring of the Canadian economy are adding costs and putting upward pressure on inflation. Considerable uncertainty remains around US tariffs and how changes to global trade relationships will affect economic growth and consumer prices in Canada. This uncertainty includes the review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. How other major structural changes—such as shifting demographics and the adoption of artificial intelligence—will affect the Canadian economy is also unclear. The effects of these developments on output and inflation will play out over many years. Monetary policy cannot offset the long-term implications of US tariffs or other sources of structural change. Th BoC: Inflation to average 2.0% in 2025 (down from 2.3% in Jan), 2.1% in 2026 (unchanged), 2.1% in 2027. BoC: potential output growth expected to slow to 1.0% in 2026 from 1.6% in 2025; seen rising to 1.3% in 2027. BoC: Nominal neutral interest rate is assumed to be in the estimated range of 2.25% to 3.25%.