October 2025 US Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Thank you, Tom, and thank you to the Council on Foreign Relations for the opportunity to speak to you today. Since the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) last meeting on September 16 and 17, economic data have tended to support my view of a labor market that is softening and inflation—absent temporary tariff effects—that is running fairly close to the FOMC's 2 percent target. Based on what I know today, I support continued easing of monetary policy from its current setting, which I judge is moderately restricting aggregate demand and economic activity. But I also see a conflict right now between data showing solid growth in economic activity and data showing a softening labor market.2 So, something's gotta give—either economic growth softens to match a soft labor market, or the labor market rebounds to match stronger economic growth. Since we don't know which way the data will break on this conflict, we need to move with care when adjusting the policy rate to ensure we don't make a mistake that will be costly to correct. I believe that how that process plays out in the coming months will have a significant impact on the path of monetary policy. FED'S WALLER BACKS OCTOBER RATE CUT IN THURSDAY SPEECH IN NEW YORK FED'S WALLER: GOVT FREEZE COULD LOWER 4Q GDP 'SEVERAL TENTHS OF A PERCENTAGE POINT' FED’S WALLER: IF JOB MARKET CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, FED SHOULD CUT TOWARD NEUTRAL RATE || NEUTRAL INTEREST RATE IS ABOUT 100 TO 125 BASIS POINTS LOWER THAN CURRENT FED FUNDS RATE Fed's Waller: Rate outlook post-October hinges on labor market data