Fireside chat with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran | MFA Policy Outlook 2025

Canadian economic activity expanded at its fastest pace in 15 months in September as a measure of employment rebounded, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data showed on ...

ATL FED'S BOSTIC Q&A/FISK: FED CAN'T JUST BE REACTIVE; HAVE TO GAUGE FUTURE BEST AS POSSIBLE; TRY TO BE AS ANALYTICAL AS POSSIBLE; ALWAYS CRITICISM #Bostic #FederalReserve #economy ATL FED'S BOSTIC Q&A/FISK: HOUSING AFFORDABILITY A COMPLAINT 'EVERYWHERE,' URBAN, RURAL, AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN; HOUSING ALWAYS TRYING TO CATCH UP #Bostic #FederalReserve #economy ATL FED'S BOSTIC Q&A/FISK: WITH SO MANY STRUCTURAL CHANGES UNDERWAY, FROM IMMIGRATION, TARIFFS TO A.I., THE MOST DIFFICULT TIME TO MAKE POLICY #Bostic #FederalReserve #economy Fed's Bostic: Turbulence is leading firms and households to be cautious. ATL FED'S BOSTIC Q&A/FISK: ATMOSPHERE OF CAUTION DOESN'T MEAN CATASTROPHE 'IS ON THE HORIZON;' BUT CONSUMER 'PRECAUTIONARY ACTIVITY' WIDESPREAD #Bostic #FederalReserve #economy

FED'S MIRAN: GROWTH IN FIRST HALF OF YEAR WAS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED AMID UNCERTAINTY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON ECONOMY HAS LIFTED THERE ARE REASONS TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC GOING FORWARD ON UNCERTIANTY LIFTING FED'S MIRAN: IF ECONOMY DOES WELL IT DOESN'T HAVE FIRM IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY THE NEUTRAL RATE HAS COME DOWN WHICH MAKES POLICY MORE RESTRICTIVE RESTRICTIVE MONETARY POLICY HAS RISKS THERE ARE RISKS IF MONETARY POLICY ISN'T ADJUSTED Fed's Miran: MonPol Should Be Forward Looking Given Lags Of Policy Impact - ‘More Sanguine’ On Inflation Outlook Than Many Others Fed's Miran: My best attempt at a real neutral rate estimate is 0.5%. *Looks in disappointment* Fed's Miran Says Market Reactions Offer Useful Feedback and Bond Market Support Boosts Push for Faster Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the September 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations increased at the short- and longer-term horizons and were unchanged at the medium-term horizon. Despite a small rebound in the expected job finding rate, labor market expectations continued to deteriorate with consumers reporting lower expected earnings growth, greater likelihoods of losing jobs, and a higher likelihood of a rise in overall unemployment. The survey was fielded from September 1 through September 30, 2025. The main findings from the September 2025 Survey are: *NY FED: MORE HOUSEHOLDS REPORT BEING BETTER OFF THAN YEAR AGO *NY FED: HOUSEHOLDS' OUTLOOK FOR LABOR MARKET DETERIORATES NY FED: SEPTEMBER YEAR-AHEAD EXPECTED FOOD PRICE RISE HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2023 *NY FED: 1Y CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN SEPT 3.4% VS 3.2% *NY FED: 5Y CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN SEPT 3% VS 2.9% *NY FED: 3Y CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS UNCHANGED AT 3%