The US shutdown meant no jobs report. Carlyle’s analysis shows it would have been pretty bad

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the September 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations increased at the short- and longer-term horizons and were unchanged at the medium-term horizon. Despite a small rebound in the expected job finding rate, labor market expectations continued to deteriorate with consumers reporting lower expected earnings growth, greater likelihoods of losing jobs, and a higher likelihood of a rise in overall unemployment. The survey was fielded from September 1 through September 30, 2025. The main findings from the September 2025 Survey are: *NY FED: MORE HOUSEHOLDS REPORT BEING BETTER OFF THAN YEAR AGO *NY FED: HOUSEHOLDS' OUTLOOK FOR LABOR MARKET DETERIORATES NY FED: SEPTEMBER YEAR-AHEAD EXPECTED FOOD PRICE RISE HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2023 *NY FED: 1Y CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN SEPT 3.4% VS 3.2% *NY FED: 5Y CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN SEPT 3% VS 2.9% *NY FED: 3Y CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS UNCHANGED AT 3%

FED'S MIRAN: GROWTH IN FIRST HALF OF YEAR WAS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED AMID UNCERTAINTY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON ECONOMY HAS LIFTED THERE ARE REASONS TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC GOING FORWARD ON UNCERTIANTY LIFTING FED'S MIRAN: IF ECONOMY DOES WELL IT DOESN'T HAVE FIRM IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY THE NEUTRAL RATE HAS COME DOWN WHICH MAKES POLICY MORE RESTRICTIVE RESTRICTIVE MONETARY POLICY HAS RISKS THERE ARE RISKS IF MONETARY POLICY ISN'T ADJUSTED Fed's Miran: MonPol Should Be Forward Looking Given Lags Of Policy Impact - ‘More Sanguine’ On Inflation Outlook Than Many Others Fed's Miran: My best attempt at a real neutral rate estimate is 0.5%. *Looks in disappointment* Fed's Miran Says Market Reactions Offer Useful Feedback and Bond Market Support Boosts Push for Faster Rate Cuts

<=USD>:*FED'S KASHKARI SAYS DATA SENDING SOME STAGFLATION SIGNALS FED'S KASHKARI Says It Is Too Early To Tell If Inflation Will Persist Due To Tariffs KASHKARI: SKEPTICAL THAT A LOT OF WORKERS ARE BEING REPLACED BY AI NOW BULLISH ON LABOR, WORKERS HAVE A VERY IMPORTANT ROLE IN ECONOMY HEARING LOTS OF GRAND DECLARATIONS OF AI REPLACING WORKERS, BUT NOT SEEING THE EVIDENCE YET NATURE OF JOBS WILL CHANGE AS WE USE AI TOOLS