Miran: Policy has become much more restrictive this year.

I love that this guy creates his economic models with variables from alternate realities. It’s so cute

Having now revisited his reasons for advocating an initial 50 point decrease in rate, some stuff is very questionable.

The tariff revenue is a saving to the budget deficit and so contributes to a small % cut in rates. This says nothing of all the other effects that tariffs have.

The ongoing cut in the high marginal tax rates contributes so much to economic growth that this also contributes to a further % cut in rates. That whole supply side theory is perhaps massively over rated. I'm being kind.

There are a few other things which are also pretty out there and not analysed as an economist would normally do.

The inflation factor was considered. Not.

But those couple of things provide a flavour. Add them all up and I think they approach a 2% cut.

This is pretty heterodox stuff we're talking, and likely to be never considered as credible by the Fed governors. What Miran obviously doesn't realise is that it may also alienate them, as I trust they will all go away and consult with their own teams of assistant economists.

All pretty esoteric stuff which probably only one other person is interested in.

This guy is a boot licker and lives in lala-land :-) LOL