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A Trader’s Week Ahead: Will Powell Deliver Amid a Deluge of Macro Risks?
A little over four hours before the FOMC meeting, the Bank of Canada (BoC) meet and look set to get the rate-cut party started. After poor employment reports in July and August, market pricing in CAD swaps implies an 84% probability that the BoC will cut rates. The Norges Bank (meeting 18 Sept) may also lower rates, although that is a closer call — NOK interest rate swaps imply a 60% probability of a cut, while the majority of economists also forecast a cut. I’m not one to promote trading over a central bank meeting — that is a fine art and often best left to the high frequency algos — but there is a real ... (full story)
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The Fed dominates the headlines. An upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC, the Fed’s interest rate policy group) on September 16-17 is already receiving outsized attention because of the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time since December 2004. Trump’s efforts to mold the Fed board of governors to his ...
From substack.com | Sep 15, 2025
As expected, last week was an interesting one, not only for economic developments but also for how politics and geopolitics are impacting economic policy. Amidst it all, markets continued to distinguish between sovereign developments and corporate valuations. Traditional correlations remained under stress, with both "risk-on" and "risk-off" assets seeing ...
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is likely to muster a slim majority of his colleagues to support a 25-basis-point cut in interest rates on Wednesday, fueled by growing concern about the health of the economy, experts say. But given the turmoil around the central bank and uncertainty about the direction of inflation and the job market, the bigger ...
