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Policy & Macro Weekly Wrap-Up
What is an income-led recession? It is a downturn that begins not with collapsing inventories or credit-driven investment busts, but with households themselves. When real personal income declines, consumption falters, and because consumption is the largest share of GDP, close to 70 percent, the entire economy begins to lose momentum. This is fundamentally different from short-lived inventory corrections, which are quickly reversed, or from investment-led recessions, which typically arise when credit markets freeze. Income-led recessions are more subtle and more persistent, because they erode the foundation of demand. ... (full story)