-
Why the US dollar has fallen so much
The Dollar has fallen 10 percent so far this year. Much of this happened in discrete drops around key tariff announcements, like in early February when Canada, China and Mexico were hit and again around Liberation Day in early April when reciprocal tariffs were first unveiled. Since that time, the Dollar has been essentially stable, even as US data have failed to validate market expectations of recession. In today’s note, I look at what’s been driving the Dollar fall. As I’ve noted previously, the fall in the Dollar is almost perfectly explained by interest rate differentials, which have moved sharply against ... (full story)