Will the US Fed Cut Interest Rates in July? | Metals Mine

  • Will the US Fed Cut Interest Rates in July?

    From global.morningstar.com

    It feels like everybody wants lower interest rates: President Donald Trump, the Treasury secretary, and even members of the Federal Open Market Committee. But with inflation above target (and potentially moving in the wrong direction, thanks to tariffs) and the economy cooling but still solid, analysts say central bankers still have time to wait. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting. “[Federal Reserve Chair Jerome] Powell’s aim at the press conference will be to sound quite boring and balanced, and that’s partly because we’re going to learn quite a lot in ... (full story)

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The Fool
Jul 28, 2025 2:54pm
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There is room for some noise in this FOMC - there may be more than one dissent on the hold, some dovish words that are new in the statement.

If you were the PhD in Financial Engineering programming the bot that reads the statement and then executes, in a nanosecond or two, trades worth $billions, what word or phrase would you be looking for?
axecap
Jul 28, 2025 3:36pm
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Quoting The Fool
what word or phrase would you be looking for?
I quit
ffghost
Jul 28, 2025 2:20pm
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I guess a one-word article wouldn't sell much....but a simple "no" would have been just fine.


*to be fair, I didn't read the article and was just trying to be funny......but, seriously, 97% chance based on fed fund futures that rates stay the same and we are writing articles about it?
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TimmyBTrades
Jul 28, 2025 2:53pm
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Quoting ffghost
I guess a one-word article wouldn't sell much....but a simple "no" would have been just fine. *to be fair, I didn't read the article and was just trying to be funny......but, seriously, 97% chance based on fed fund futures that rates stay the same and we are writing articles about it? {image}
XD True, September at 63% though, I think that will swing significantly on the tone of the statement/press conference/dissent
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The Fool
Jul 28, 2025 2:56pm
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Anyway, a couple red to flat days b4 Wed will be a gift. BTFD is still the basic premise anyone needs.
The Fool
Jul 28, 2025 3:53pm
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Quoting axecap
{quote} I quit
lol, that would do it....
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Trader#FB1B
Jul 28, 2025 2:45pm
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Quoting ffghost
I guess a one-word article wouldn't sell much....but a simple "no" would have been just fine. *to be fair, I didn't read the article and was just trying to be funny......but, seriously, 97% chance based on fed fund futures that rates stay the same and we are writing articles about it? {image}
I think you might be right in a prior post that now we have much more certainty with tariffs the Fed is more likely to ease. However I think they need an excuse, tame inflation or weakling economy/jobs. A single quarter point drop is relatively irrelevant, so it’s no great risk to do it. If you remember the “experts” and ff futures were completely wrong for years, they kept expecting the Fed to lower aggressively. No reason they can’t be wrong now, but I’m just thinking the Fed is more likely to one ease than people expect. A dovish statement on Wednesday is all it will take. There should be a vote or two for a cut, which will break their unanimous front. I would definitely not be holding a position into the announcement convinced of a hawkish statement.
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Trader#9724
Jul 28, 2025 3:11pm
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Quoting The Fool
Anyway, a couple red to flat days b4 Wed will be a gift. BTFD is still the basic premise anyone needs.
IV is low, anyone short equities should buy calls in case the market likes what they say.
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Trader#A74F
Jul 28, 2025 3:29pm
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It’s all irrelevant . The markets have priced in 1% of cuts from the FFR , everything is front run , Watch for a pop and drop , ie . Sell any spike into August .

The August low should come around the third week , ready for a little pop higher before September selling in earnest arrives . Valuations are way out of sync , volume should be the catalyst. Careful of the inherent belief markets only go up .
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CEO57
Jul 29, 2025 7:08am
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No still set up for long position
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