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Williams: Summer of ’25: The Data
Good evening. I’m pleased to see my fellow economists and colleagues enjoying a long summer evening in the city in the best way possible—indoors and prepared for a robust discussion on the economic outlook. I’ve been looking forward to this conversation for some time. But before we turn to the discussion and Q&A, I’d like to take a few minutes at the start of the program to share my assessment of recent economic data and how it’s informing my outlook for the economy. Particularly, I’ll explain what the data are telling us in light of economic uncertainty, and how I expect the effects of tariffs to take ... (full story)
Added at 5:34pm
- FED’S WILLIAMS:
CURRENT ‘MODESTLY RESTRICTIVE’ MONETARY POLICY IS APPROPRIATE
CURRENT STATE OF INTEREST RATE POLICY ALLOWS FED TIME TO ANALYZE DATA
TARIFF IMPACT MODEST SO FAR BUT WILL INCREASE OVER TIME
TARIFFS SHOULD BOOST INFLATION ONE PERCENTAGE POINT REST OF 2025 INTO 2026
WILL NEED TO WATCH DATA TO UNDERSTAND TARIFF IMPACT
IT'S 'EARLY DAYS' FOR IMPACT OF TARIFFS ON ECONOMY
OVERALL INFLATION LIKELY AT 2.5% IN JUNE, CORE AT 2.75%
RIGHT NOW, ECONOMY IN GOOD PLACE, LABOR MARKET IS SOLID
JOB GROWTH AND LABOR SUPPLY ARE BOTH SLOWING
ECONOMY BESET BY HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY
U.S. ECONOMY TO GROW AROUND 1% THIS YEAR
UNEMPLOYMENT TO RISE TO 4.5% BY YEAR’S END
INFLATION TO STAND AT BETWEEN 3%-3.5% THIS YEAR
INFLATION TO EASE TO 2.5% NEXT YEAR, 2% IN 2027
Low Impact
Breaking