Economy rebounds from trade-war lows, Fed finds, but hiring is weak and inflation is likely to rise

Economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July. Five Districts reported slight or modest gains, five had flat activity, and the remaining two Districts noted modest declines in activity. That represented an improvement over the previous report, in which half of Districts reported at least slight declines in activity. Uncertainty remained elevated, contributing to ongoing caution by businesses. Nonauto consumer spending declined in most Districts, softening slightly overall. Auto sales receded modestly on average, after consumers had rushed to buy vehicles earlier this year to avoid tariffs. Tourism activity was mixed, manufacturing activity edged lower, and nonfinancial services activity was little changed on average but varied across Districts. Loan volume increased slightly in most Districts. Construction activity slowed somewhat, constrained by rising costs in some Districts. Home sales were flat or little changed in most Districts, and nonresidential real estate activity was also mostly steady. Activity in the agriculture sector remained weak. Energy sector activity declined slightly, and transportation activity was mixed. The outlook was neutral to slightly pessimistic, as only two Districts expected activity to increase, and others foresaw flat or slightly weaker activity. Fed Beige Book: Prices Increased Across Districts, with seven characterising price growth as moderate and five characterising it as modest, mostly similar to the previous report. Fed's July Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July. Five Districts reported slight or modest gains, five had flat activity, and the remaining two Districts noted modest declines in activity" FED BEIGE BOOK: OUTLOOK NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY PESSIMISTIC; ONLY TWO DISTRICTS EXPECT GROWTH, OTHERS SEE FLAT OR WEAKER ACTIVITY. MORE FED'S BEIGE BOOK: LATEST SURVEY AN IMPROVEMENT OVER PREVIOUS; UNCERTAINTY 'REMAINED ELEVATED;' NONAUTO CONSUMER SPENDING DECLINED MOST DISTRICTS #FOMC #minutes #economy

Fed's Bostic: I try not to focus on news reports about the Fed, but on things that actually matter - Fox Business. FED'S BOSTIC: SAYS THE U.S. MAY BE AT AN INFLECTION POINT ON INFLATION, NOTING THE MOST RECENT CPI DATA SUGGESTS INFLATION PRESSURES ARE BUILDING. FED'S BOSTIC: WOULD WAIT ON CUTTING INTEREST RATES FOR NOW || NOTES BUSINESSES SAY THIS IS NOT A TEXTBOOK TARIFF SITUATION; MANY ARE USING VARIED STRATEGIES TO ADJUST PRICES Fed's Bostic: Everything is on the table, we want the data to guide us. Fed's Bostic: We may be into 2026 before the full impact of tariffs on inflation is clear.