Schmid: Remarks on Banking Policy and the Economic Outlook

Thank you, Barbara, and thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. It is an honor to join other members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) who have addressed the Economic Club of New York over the years.1 My subject is the current state of the U.S. economy, the economic outlook, and the implications for monetary policy. The short version is that the labor market appears resilient and stable and economic activity is continuing to grow, although at a more moderate pace than in the second half of last year. While the labor market is currently at or near the FOMC's goal of maximum employment, there is the prospect that trade and other policy changes could raise the unemployment rate and push employment away from our objective. These policies, especially higher import tariffs, could also raise inflation over the rest of this year. In fact, while progress toward the FOMC's goal of 2 percent inflation has continued, we have seen an escalation in goods inflation and data from surveys, and non-traditional sources point to some inflationary pressures as well. In addition to increases in U.S. import tariffs and retaliatory increases in the tariffs foreign countries apply to U.S. exports, other policy changes, either proposed or already underway relate to immigration, fiscal policy and regulation. Those policies could affect economic conditions, and since it is the FOMC's job to set monetary policy that is best able to achieve our mandated goals of maximum employment and stable prices, we must consider the effects of these policies. So far, we are beginning to see the impact only of higher tariffs on inflation. Still, thinking about the outlook requires consideration of how the economy could be affected by all these policy changes moving forward. Fed's Kugler: View current Fed policy as moderately restrictive Fed's Kugler: Expects reversal of imports surge in coming months to signal larger price increases. <=USD>:*KUGLER: SEE INFL. RISKS NOW, EMPLOYMENT RISKS DOWN THE ROAD *KUGLER: CURRENT POLICY WELL-POSITIONED FOR ECONOMIC CHANGES *KUGLER: IF HIGH TARIFFS STAY, MAY SEE LARGER INF. EFFECTS SOON *KUGLER: LABOR MARKET IN BALANCE WITH SOME SIGNS OF COOLING

Good afternoon, everyone, and once again welcome to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Thanks to Paul for that introduction. As many of you know, Paul leads the Philly Fed’s Beige Book effort, speaking with contacts and analyzing a host of regional economic data. He is also a multiple Beigies winner and, he may not like that I share this, is also the Federal Reserve System’s foremost expert in the regional impact of Taylor Swift. In every case, Paul, thank you for all you do. And I also give my thanks to the Philadelphia Council for Business Economics (PCBE) and, more broadly, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), for their strong standing relationship with the Philly Fed. We are aligned not just in providing a location here at the Bank for regular meetings, but also in our mutual goal of ensuring an open forum for the timely discussion of economic issues impacting both the city and region. We all look forward to welcoming NABE’s annual meeting to Philadelphia this fall. I suspect you were drawn here this afternoon more by the lunch than to hear me speak on the economic outlook. Nonetheless, I will do my best to make our time together worthwhile. Today also marks my last spe Fed's Harker: Amid uncertainty, the Fed must wait and see on next policy steps. Fed's Harker: It is entirely possible that the Fed may face rising inflation and unemployment at the same time. PHILLY FED'S FED'S HARKER/BIZ COUNCIL: WARNS ABOUT POSSIBLE FUTURE IMPACTS OF HIGHER DEBT ON ECONOMY AND MONPOL #Harker #FederalReserve #economy Fed's Harker: The economy faces many different possible paths.

FED'S HARKER: ESTIMATING TARIFF IMPACT IS A MOVING TARGET BUSINESSES COMMUNITY MAINLY WANTS STABILITY IN TRADE POLICY AT THIS POINT Fed's Harker: No Rush To Shrink Size Of Balance Sheet