Fed's Harker: Estimating tariff impact is a moving target

Good afternoon, everyone, and once again welcome to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Thanks to Paul for that introduction. As many of you know, Paul leads the Philly Fed’s Beige Book effort, speaking with contacts and analyzing a host of regional economic data. He is also a multiple Beigies winner and, he may not like that I share this, is also the Federal Reserve System’s foremost expert in the regional impact of Taylor Swift. In every case, Paul, thank you for all you do. And I also give my thanks to the Philadelphia Council for Business Economics (PCBE) and, more broadly, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), for their strong standing relationship with the Philly Fed. We are aligned not just in providing a location here at the Bank for regular meetings, but also in our mutual goal of ensuring an open forum for the timely discussion of economic issues impacting both the city and region. We all look forward to welcoming NABE’s annual meeting to Philadelphia this fall. I suspect you were drawn here this afternoon more by the lunch than to hear me speak on the economic outlook. Nonetheless, I will do my best to make our time together worthwhile. Today also marks my last spe Fed's Harker: Amid uncertainty, the Fed must wait and see on next policy steps. Fed's Harker: It is entirely possible that the Fed may face rising inflation and unemployment at the same time. PHILLY FED'S FED'S HARKER/BIZ COUNCIL: WARNS ABOUT POSSIBLE FUTURE IMPACTS OF HIGHER DEBT ON ECONOMY AND MONPOL #Harker #FederalReserve #economy Fed's Harker: The economy faces many different possible paths.

Good afternoon. It is a pleasure to speak with you today. This conference on the future of banking has brought together leaders from across the U.S. banking sector. I have enjoyed the sessions so far, including Brandon and Tara’s discussion earlier, and I look forward to learning more about how you are navigating change. As some of you know, I’ve spent my entire career in and around the banking industry. My first job out of college was as an FDIC examiner right here in Kansas City. Before long, though, I transitioned from the public to the private sector. For most of my professional life, I was a Nebraska banker. I served as president and CEO of a local community bank and a large enterprise with a national footprint. So, I have sat in the same seat as many of you. Later on, I was privileged to lead the Southwestern Graduate School of Banking Foundation at Southern Methodist University’s Cox School of Business. The focus of the school was to develop bank leaders and educate community bank directors. My experience across the industry ultimately lead to my appointment in 2023 as president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City — a true servant leader opportunity. So, throughout my career, Fed’s Schmid: Tariffs Likely To Raise Prices, Unclear By How Much - Fed Policy Needs To Be Nimble As We Balance Dual Mandate - Inflation, Employment Are Close To Mandate - Optimistic Economic Activity Can Be Sustained

President Trump is committed to pursuing economic and trade policies that will spur an American revitalization marked by strong economic growth, the elimination of destructive trade deficits, and countering unfair trade practices. This includes combatting unfair currency practices that facilitate competitive advantage, such as unwarranted intervention in currency markets. In this Administration, the Secretary of the Treasury will be vigilant in identifying and taking action against currency manipulation. Treasury will also examine other macroeconomic and financial policies implemented by our trading partners that propagate imbalances or result in an unfair competitive advantage in trade. For decades, unfair currency practices abroad have contributed to the U.S. trade deficit and hollowed out U.S. manufacturing employment. When a trading partner engages excessively in foreign exchange market interventions or other actions to artificially lower the value or suppress appreciation of its currency, this distorts market-based competition, promoting domestic production and exports, and suppressing imports, in ways that do not reflect the productivity of economies or competitiveness of traded goods. There has been a decline in the scale and persistence of foreign exchange intervention among most major U.S. trading partners in recent years, but the damage done is long lasting, including through the reallocation of supply chains and their associated quality jobs, as well as the loss of the homeland’s ability to manufacture critical defense and industrial equipment. The economic and national security implications are self-evident. In very recent years the dollar has generally been strong relative to historical averages, and there have been less persistent appreciation pressures across other currencies. Treasury is closely monitoring whether our trading partners may act through foreign exchange intervention, or non-market policies and practices, to manipulate their currencies for unfair competitive advantage in trade and prevent the swift recovery of American economic strength. In this context, Treasury will continue to monitor closely the extent to which intervention by our trading partners is two-way, and whether economies that choose to smooth exchange rate movements resist depreciation pressure in the same manner as appreciation pressure. U.S. TREASURY SAYS SEMI-ANNUAL CURRENCY REPORT FOUND NO MAJOR U.S. TRADING PARTNERS MANIPULATED CURRENCY TO GAIN UNFAIR TRADE ADVANTAGE IN FOUR QUARTERS THROUGH DECEMBER 2024 U.S. TREASURY: MONITORING LIST OF TRADING PARTNERS WHOSE CURRENCY PRACTICES 'MERIT CLOSE ATTENTION' INCLUDES CHINA, JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, SINGAPORE, TAIWAN, VIETNAM, GERMANY, IRELAND AND SWITZERLAND U.S. TREASURY: WHILE CHINA IS NOT LABELED A CURRENCY MANIPULATOR AMID YUAN DEPRECIATION PRESSURE, CHINA STANDS OUT AMONG TRADING PARTNERS FOR LACK OF TRANSPARENCY ON EXCHANGE RATE PRACTICES AND POLICIES