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  • The backbone of America’s economy was just dealt a serious blow

    From cnn.com

    US consumers could be reaching their breaking point. After dealing with elevated inflation and the highest interest rates in decades, they’re starting to rein in their spending. Last month, retail sales were unchanged from March, when spending increased by a downwardly revised 0.6%, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. April spending missed the 0.4% increase that economists had projected, according to FactSet. The figures are adjusted for seasonal swings but not inflation. By comparison, a year ago, retail sales surged by 3%. Stripping away auto sales, April retail sales were up by 0.2% last month, ... (full story)

  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.125.78
Retail Unit sales peaked in April 2021, and have been dropping for the last 3 yrs. The dollar amounts make it look like consumers are buying more, but it's only because of increased prices. IE.. Spending more money to buy fewer items.
Quoting Guest
Retail Unit sales peaked in April 2021, and have been dropping for the last 3 yrs. The dollar amounts make it look like consumers are buying more, but it's only because of increased prices. IE.. Spending more money to buy fewer items.
But that kind of news doesn't make headlines (sarcasm). When a number in Feb is realeased and shown to be -0.8%, then revised to actually be -1.1%, how can a revision in March from 0.6% up to 0.9% and an April number of 0.7% show a May number lower than expectation to be a "serious blow"? It can because it makes for good headlines. CNN doesn't know what next month holds. If it is +1.1% in June, will they revise this article. Nope. Same as I won't be coming back in June to find this post and state "wow, perhaps they got it right".

Data = volatility. Volatility = good trading environment. Everyone has to have a job I guess, so screaming "the end is near" in the media is probably just "good for business". The only problem is that the call is very infrequently made correctly...and people start looking for a break down of the market 6 months to several YEARS before it finally occurs.

Silver lining? If consumers are actually becoming slightly less frivolous, that can only be a good thing for overall growth. Slower growth, but steadier.

Happy trading.
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