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  • US retail sales flat in April, falling short of Wall Street's expectations

    From finance.yahoo.com

    Retail sales were weaker than expected in April, furthering concerns about the state of the consumer amid sticky inflation and higher interest rates. Retail sales were flat in April from the previous month, according to Census Bureau data. Economists had expected a 0.4% increase in spending, according to Bloomberg data. This marked a slowdown from the 0.6% month-over-month increase seen in March. April sales, excluding auto and gas, declined by 0.1%, below consensus estimates for a 0.1% increase. The update on consumer spending comes as economists are closely watching for any signs of weakness in the consumer amid ... (full story)

Retail sales down, inflation still above 3%... literally stagflation right before our eyes.
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Quoting MatTrader101
Retail sales down, inflation still above 3%... literally stagflation right before our eyes.
Dude, Powell said he doesn't see stag nor flation...

LoL
Quoting MatTrader101
Retail sales down, inflation still above 3%... literally stagflation right before our eyes.
I understand your point implicitly and there is a wider desire to coin a phrase for particular scenarios but I'd argue that when inflation has been high, for inflation to recede you're always going to need the front-edge data-plots, such as retail etc., to lead with disappointments. CPI is a lagging result of the demand-supply ratio and the chain's ability to withstand price and margin pressures.
I'd argue that stagflation can only be claimed after a sustained period.

As interesting is the rhetorical Q: at what point does the market accept that the outlier plots are an indication of a new correlation and trend?
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} I understand your point implicitly and there is a wider desire to coin a phrase for particular scenarios but I'd argue that when inflation has been high, for inflation to recede you're always going to need the front-edge data-plots, such as retail etc., to lead with disappointments. CPI is a lagging result of the demand-supply ratio and the chain's ability to withstand price and margin pressures. I'd argue that stagflation can only be claimed after a sustained period. As interesting is the rhetorical Q: at what point does the market accept...
Inflation = expansion of money supply = FED printing money on behest of Biden Administration = FEDs /Government's fault for this inflation

Not supply and demand, it's complete nonsense. FED printed trillions of $, gave to people for free, people had disposable income to buy random shit, and that's caused supply/demand problem. If there was no free money in 2020, we would have been just coming out of a big recession. Until the media will tell a normal person that inflation was caused by covid, markets will just go up because people are uneducated.

Instead we have record deficit, interest rate on deficit is 1$ Trillion a year minimum, going to reach 2$ Trillion next year.
Quoting MatTrader101
{quote} Inflation = expansion of money supply = FED printing money on behest of Biden Administration = FEDs /Government's fault for this inflation Not supply and demand, it's complete nonsense. FED printed trillions of $, gave to people for free, people had disposable income to buy random shit, and that's caused supply/demand problem. If there was no free money in 2020, we would have been just coming out of a big recession. Until the media will tell a normal person that inflation was caused by covid, markets will just go up because people are uneducated....
Oh, yes, I agree about the free money but that's what caused the unlimited demand.
Can it possibly be, that market is FINALLY getting the point that bad US data is NOT in fact good for equities, since there is no more bail out money to be had? And that bad US data means the USD is staring down the barrel of rate hikes, not cuts?
Let's go DODGERS !!
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} It started well before Biden , try Bernanke
Indeed.
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} It started well before Biden , try Bernanke
It started the moment the Dollar was pegged off as a proper reserve currency that was backed by Gold, and now it's backed by politicians with agendas... fuck all.
Quoting MatTrader101
{quote} It started the moment the Dollar was pegged off as a proper reserve currency that was backed by Gold, and now it's backed by politicians with agendas... fuck all.
Yes, agreed, of all colours and persuasions.
Finally a new all time high on the Nasdaq. God bless America!
Quoting MatTrader101
Retail sales down, inflation still above 3%... literally stagflation right before our eyes.
The guest said it right just below your comment. Sarcastic or not, the media recently has been impacting the term "staglfation". Before we get all out of place here, let's recall what that ACTUALLY looked like back in the 80's when it happened. High inflation (8-9%) and high unemployment. Do either of those exist today? None of us can say for certain, but, realistically, how far is this country from something like that? Days/weeks/months/years? Likely on the years time frame (if at all).

During the speech referenced by the guest, Powell very clearly pointed out that he lived through Stagflation. Very few of those on this forum have....or at least were old enough to be of employment age (LEGAL employment age away...apprently 8 year old child labor cutting lawns in 110F heat didn't count back then like it does now....)
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote}I'd argue that stagflation can only be claimed after a sustained period.
^This
As we all look at the prior prints of this figure, we clearly see why the FED doesn't take data in single-month releases. Feb 2024 was way worse than this, and it "rebounded" soon thereafter, right?

Seeing spending curbed is a great sign for the overall economy as it means inflation should subside as demand decreases. It should also make haters of US consumers and debt creation happy as it could be seen as increased fiscal responsibility (no more 'free' money from 2021 and not INCREASING the add to the credit cards).

...but, again, it's one month of data...and always has the possibility to be revised.
Quoting ffghost
As we all look at the prior prints of this figure, we clearly see why the FED doesn't take data in single-month releases. Feb 2024 was way worse than this, and it "rebounded" soon thereafter, right? Seeing spending curbed is a great sign for the overall economy as it means inflation should subside as demand decreases. It should also make haters of US consumers and debt creation happy as it could be seen as increased fiscal responsibility (no more 'free' money from 2021 and not INCREASING the add to the credit cards). ...but, again, it's...
Yes. It will be revised after most stop losses are hit.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mitiblotch/mt5-10567385/9464692
Quoting Jade Gate
Can it possibly be, that market is FINALLY getting the point that bad US data is NOT in fact good for equities, since there is no more bail out money to be had? And that bad US data means the USD is staring down the barrel of rate hikes, not cuts?
Your answer is 2024 US presidential elections. Everything else is of no consequence. The rogues that run the market will keep propping stocks up at any cost.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mitiblotch/mt5-10567385/9464692
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Your answer is 2024 US presidential elections. Everything else is of no consequence. The rogues that run the market will keep propping stocks up at any cost.
If there are rogues doing as you say, then they'll be doing that at all times. They won't need a US presidential Election as an excuse.
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