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  • The Employment Situation -- May 2023

    From bls.gov

    Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 339,000 in May, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, government, health care, construction, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the ... (full story)

Added at 8:42am

  • May Payrolls Soar By 339K Blowing Away Highest Estimate Even As People Employed Actually Tumble By 310K

    From zerohedge.com

    With consensus expecting a modest payroll drop from 291K to 195K, the whisper number coming in alittle higher at 225K and Goldman's trading desk nfp matrix as follows: "a print sub 100k likely hits the tape by ~100bps and a print north of 375k hits the tape by 25 – 50bps", literally nobody was expecting a print above 252K which was the highest forecast among economists, moments ago the BLS reported yet another blowout stunner: according to Biden's Dept of Labor, in May the US added a whopping 339K jobs, almost double the median estimate and well above the highest forecast. Not only was this a 4 sigma beat to ... (full story)

There's disarray in these figures, surely? Either the forecast is rubbish or both last and this month's are rubbish. They are SO out of whack that it brings the data into disrepute. Personally it matters not a jot to me but it must do for a lot of other folk who do make decisions based on what they hope is reliable data points.
Quoting DaJoWaBa
There's disarray in these figures, surely? Either the forecast is rubbish or both last and this month's are rubbish. They are SO out of whack that it brings the data into disrepute. Personally it matters not a jot to me but it must do for a lot of other folk who do make decisions based on what they hope is reliable data points.
What happened buddy, did you miss a trade or something?
I live in the future
This data is mediocre and quite inaccurate, it barely makes sense.
topsy-turvy
Quoting DaJoWaBa
There's disarray in these figures, surely? Either the forecast is rubbish or both last and this month's are rubbish. They are SO out of whack that it brings the data into disrepute. Personally it matters not a jot to me but it must do for a lot of other folk who do make decisions based on what they hope is reliable data points.
It's the numbers that are really screwed up.

This was first reported last year:
Here Comes The Job Shock: Philadelphia Fed Admits US Jobs "Overstated" By At Least 1.1 Million
Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 - 05:44 PM
Regular readers are well aware that back in July, Zero Hedge first (long before it became a running theme among so-called "macro experts") pointed out that a gaping 1+ million job differential had opened up between the closely-watched and market-impacting, if easily gamed and manipulated, Establishment Survey and the far more accurate if volatile, Household Survey - the two core components of the monthly non-farm payrolls report.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/he...ast-11-million
Unbelievable jobs increased despite .3% unemployment rate increased. This figure impresses me to buy USD with good technical buy position
Where to go price?
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All those seasonal adjustments really mess the data set up.
Quoting mae4206
Where to go price?
either up or down i think
Wait for hour to close, before making a decision.
Quoting Bakker
Wait for hour to close, before making a decision.
I will again buy it.
How to believe this data? Huge job add with much unemployment! Really ridiculous!
Quoting Ftmofx
{quote} I will again buy it.
I would also suggest the same unless you know which side to take
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The wave of layoffs six months back must surely now start to hit the unemployment rate while, at the same time, summer/seasonal jobs in the hospitality sector are on an uptick.

I still think these numbers are being massively massaged! PMI is the number that explains it all. Too many people working in services. Manufacturing collpasing. Get ready for the short oppertunity. AI Hype is almost run out, like Metaverse and Crypto hypes, they all die.
Yea im quite confused at employment rate did do bad and premarket is doing well. Still made a trade but would've been better if I understood why the market is going up. Anyone care to explain if you don't mind.
Three readings , it's always hyped and endup with confusion. The only thing matters is hourly earnings in reality.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ma...ctually-tumble
The market is confused by the numbers, I'm sitting on my hands.
When was the last time you saw something like this?? Absolutely erratic.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting TonyTepeli
{quote} What happened buddy, did you miss a trade or something?
No. As previously stated, it made no difference to me. My own Alg works off technical analysis.

I just thought it'd be useful to some, and certainly worth 'debating', to point out how unreliable the data must be for those that rely on it. There's no sense in producing data if it's totally useless because, otherwise, it nurture's that most common response of people searching for conspiracy theories or proclaiming the market to be manipulated in a thoroughly blatant manner.
Quoting jordanvic
{quote} either up or down i think
.
And do so for the USD or the other in the pair?!!
Quoting rehmatkhan00
{quote} I would also suggest the same unless you know which side to take
USD/JPY
Quoting d3vil
Yea im quite confused at employment rate did do bad and premarket is doing well. Still made a trade but would've been better if I understood why the market is going up. Anyone care to explain if you don't mind.
Trying to make sense of things will make you poor. These numbers are baked into the market looong before you see it. Just trade what you see and follow the tail of the big boys. Probably today many retailers went sell-mode because the numbers were high and what do we get? A complete lift in equities since start of the day. Monday it may well melt. Who knows. Just dont fight it.
The noise is too much here.
Quoting Ftmofx
Unbelievable jobs increased despite .3% unemployment rate increased. This figure impresses me to buy USD with good technical buy position
Do you know why it's so?

Im speculating a bit about alot of pensions and fallout from covid/vaccinations. It could explain why unemployment may go up since many might be sicker from working. Also number of new jobs/labour market might reflect that people simply left, not that the economy is necessary strong or growing.
Birth rates have been declining for many decades, it cannot be fixed by simple data. So where are they getting these workers from? immigration cannot go on forever, and there is no personell left to teach them skills in such a short time.

I'm really confused, there must some expert on this field who tells us more than blindly presenting numbers.
Equality will be the next big thing in trading
Quoting Banditten
{quote} Trying to make sense of things will make you poor. These numbers are baked into the market looong before you see it. Just trade what you see and follow the tail of the big boys. Probably today many retailers went sell-mode because the numbers were high and what do we get? A complete lift in equities since start of the day. Monday it may well melt. Who knows. Just dont fight it.
Excellent post. Thank you.
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