EZ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

Ms Schnabel started her presentation by noting that, since the Governing Council's previous monetary policy meeting on 29-30 April 2026, euro area financial markets had been torn between two competing developments: the unresolved conflict in the Middle East and the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom. The continued disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz had reinforced expectations that oil prices would remain higher for longer, despite markedly lower near-term oil prices. Inflation fixings had declined from their high April readings but continued to hover above 3% for 2026 and above 2% for 2027. In tandem with oil prices, ECB rate expectations had moderated somewhat. However, markets still priced in around three interest rate hikes overall, while the median response in the ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts was an expectation of only two hikes. Although the war was weighing on growth expectations in the euro area and globally, investors’ risk appetite had remained strong. A key underl ECB ACOUNTS: HEADLINE INFLATION WAS SET TO RISE FURTHER OVER THE SUMMER AND REMAIN WELL ABOVE TARGET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF 2027, DESPITE ALMOST THREE 25 BASIS POINT INTEREST RATE HIKES BEING EMBEDDED IN THE PROJECTIONS ECB ACOUNTS: ALL MEMBERS VIEWED THE RISKS SURROUNDING THE INFLATION OUTLOOK AS BEING TO THE UPSIDE RELATIVE TO THE STAFF BASELINE PROJECTIONS ECB ACOUNTS: IF ENERGY PRICES DID NOT DECLINE AS IMPLIED BY THE FUTURES CURVES, ABOVE-TARGET INFLATION WAS LIKELY TO PROVE CONSIDERABLY MORE PERSISTENT ECB ACOUNTS: MORE ATTENTION WAS LIKELY TO BE PAID TO PRICE RISES NOW THAN AT THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ENERGY SHOCK, AND THIS COULD MEAN THAT FIRMS AND WORKERS MIGHT REACT MORE QUICKLY ON THIS OCCASION.

Ms Schnabel started her presentation by noting that since the Governing Council's previous monetary policy meeting on 18-19 March 2026, movements in euro area financial markets had continued to be driven by developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy prices. Amid elevated volatility, markets continued to expect the oil price shock to be persistent. Although upside risks had moderated, oil was priced significantly higher, over an extended period of time, than it had been before the start of the war in the Middle East. As a result, markets continued to price in a notable and sustained inflationary impact. Inflation fixings had increased further for both 2026 and 2027. This suggested that investors anticipated some indirect or second-round effects extending beyond the first year of the conflict, before inflation was expected to return to the target of 2% in 2028. At the same time, markets continued to expect the economy to be relatively resilient. Prices of risk assets, including equities, as well as sovereign and corporate bond spreads, and the exchange rate of the euro had moved back towards the levels observed prior to the conflict. Earnings expectations had been revised up since the beginning of the war, which was consistent with the view that the impact on economic growth would be short-lived. At the same time, there had been negative surprises in macroeconomic data for the euro area. Therefore, buoyant risk asset markets, which were hovering near all-time highs, might indicate some investor complacency given the size and persistence of the energy price shock. With inflation still perceived as the dominant risk, investors were pricing in cumulative policy rate hikes by the ECB of 73 basis points in 2026. Overall, financial conditions had eased since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting, driven mainly by strong risk asset markets, but they remained somewhat tighter than before the war. ECB ACCOUNTS: UPSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION AND DOWNSIDE RISKS TO GROWTH HAD INTENSIFIED. ECB ACCOUNTS: WEAKNESS COULD PERSIST WELL BEYOND THE END OF THE CONFLICT Just in | ECB Reports: Consumer side shows no signs of second-round effects as wage negotiations are yet to occur. ECB REPORT SHOWS IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO SEE SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS ON CONSUMERS, AS WAGE NEGOTIATIONS ARE REQUIRED. ECB MEMBERS MIGHT HAVE SUPPORTED HIGHER RATES.

Ms Schnabel started her presentation by noting that the period after the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting on 4-5 February 2026 could be divided into two distinct phases. In the first phase, up to the start of the war in the Middle East, the low-volatility and strong risk appetite environment had remained in place. In the second phase, when energy prices had surged in response to the war, volatility had increased in equity markets and especially in bond markets, and there had been sell-offs in both risk asset markets and bond markets. Brent crude oil prices had surged above USD 100 per barrel to levels last seen after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Natural gas prices had also increased substantially, but had remained well below their 2022 levels. At the same time, the Brent crude oil futures curve had shown historically high backwardation – a strong negative slope – suggesting that traders were expecting the spike in oil prices to be reversed quickly. However, over time traders had pared back expectations of a swift reversal of the spike in energy prices. Since the beginning of the war, the Brent crude oil futures curve had gradually shifted upwards and stood visibly above the curve that had prevailed shortly after it started. ECB ACCOUNTS: RISK OF UNDERSHOOTING THE TARGET HAD DISAPPEARED FOR THE TIME BEING ... ECB ACCOUNTS: THE STARTING POSITION FOR INFLATION WAS MUCH MORE FAVOURABLE NOW THAN IT HAD BEEN IN 2022 ECB PUBLISHES ACCOUNT OF MARCH 18-19 POLICY MEETING: *ECB OFFICIALS SAW WEAKER EURO AS UPSIDE RISK TO INFLATION *ECB OFFICIALS: WAR FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED INFLATION OUTLOOK *ECB OFFICIALS SAW ENERGY DISRUPTION POTENTIALLY LASTING MONTHS

Ms Schnabel started her presentation by noting that, since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting on 17-18 December 2025, geopolitical uncertainty had spiked and trade policy uncertainty had rebounded briefly to summer 2025 levels. Stock market volatility had, however, edged up only slightly, far less than during previous stress episodes, while bond market volatility had hardly reacted to the risk shocks and had continued its downward trajectory. Investor risk appetite had also remained largely unaffected by the recent turbulence, and risk appetite indices for the euro area and the United States stood near their highest level since the global financial crisis of 2008. Two factors explained the overall contained market reaction. The first factor had been a change in the reaction to risk-off shocks, with investors appearing to be increasingly looking through the noise. Whereas the US tariff announcement on 2 April 2025 had triggered sharp corrections across asset markets as investors rebalanced away from riskier and US dollar-denominated assets into safer non-US dollar-denominated ass ECB ACCOUNTS SAYS IT WAS SEEN AS HELPFUL FOR COMMUNICATION TO ANCHOR POLICY EXPECTATIONS AROUND CURRENT LEVELS. ECB ACCOUNTS SAYS THE VIEW WAS EXPRESSED THAT INFLATION RISKS WERE TILTED TO THE DOWNSIDE, OR HAD BEEN MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION SINCE THE DECEMBER MEETING ECB ACCOUNTS SAYS THERE WAS ALSO A RISK THAT GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST COULD LEAD TO A FURTHER INCREASE IN ENERGY PRICES.

Ms Schnabel started her presentation by noting that, since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting on 29-30 October 2025, the financial market narrative that ECB interest rates were in a good place had been further consolidated. Incoming data had reinforced expectations that inflation would remain close to the 2% target over the medium term and that the euro area economy would grow at a rate near potential. On the back of the resilient economy and stickier services inflation, expectations of further rate cuts had vanished, with both markets and survey participants expecting policy rates to remain at their current levels for an extended period. Better than expected macroeconomic data and the reappraisal of monetary policy expectations had also pushed longer-term risk-free rates higher, a development driven by real rates, while the euro exchange rate had remained within a narrow range. Strong global risk sentiment had kept equity markets at high levels, while sovereign and corporate bond spreads had remained compressed and volatility in euro area money markets had remained limited. Overall, euro area financial conditions had tightened slightly since October 2025 but had fluctuated in a narrow range since the ECB’s last rate cut in June 2025, remaining closely aligned with its key policy rates. ECB ACCOUNTS: THE VIEW WAS EXPRESSED THAT MAINTAINING INTEREST RATES AT THEIR CURRENT LEVEL REPRESENTED A FAIRLY SOLID PATH UNDER THE BASELINE OUTLOOK ECB ACCOUNTS: THE DECEMBER STAFF PROJECTIONS HAD STRENGTHENED CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK - EURO AREA ECONOMIC ACTIVITY WAS PROVING MORE RESILIENT THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED - THE INFLATION OUTLOOK CONTINUED TO BE IN A GOOD PLACE ECB ACCOUNTS: MOST MEMBERS VIEWED THE RISKS SURROUNDING THE INFLATION OUTLOOK AS TWO-SIDED, WITH SOME MEMBERS JUDGING THAT THE DISTRIBUTION OF RISKS HAD SHIFTED UP

Ms Schnabel started her presentation by noting that since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting on 10-11 September 2025, financial markets had once again shown resilience to shocks. The risk appetite of investors in the euro area stood close to its highest level since the onset of the global financial crisis, amid persistently low volatility across asset classes. The prevailing positive risk sentiment had been underpinned by the macroeconomic outlook in both the euro area and the United States, with both economies continuing to show greater than expected resilience to the ongoing trade conflict and geopolitical headwinds. Market indicators of expectations for euro area growth continued to suggest a robust economic expansion. Growth expectations for 2025 had been revised up and stood well above their level prior to the initial announcement of higher US tariffs. Growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 were close to pre-tariff expectations and were near to the level of potential growth. Market indicators of medium-term inflation expectations were close to 2%. The one-year inflation-linked swap (ILS) rate two years ahead in the euro area had hovered around 1.85% since August, corresponding to around 1.95% when including tobacco, despite a decline in crude oil prices. US inflation compensation, as measured by the one-year ILS rate two years ahead, had fallen below 2.4%, down from 2.5% in late August. This had reinforced investor confidence that the US Federal Reserve System would continue to lower interest rates, which had been another key factor supporting global risk appetite. ECB ACCOUNTS: THERE CONTINUED TO BE A HIGH OPTION VALUE TO WAITING FOR MORE INFORMATION ECB ACCOUNTS: THE GOVERNING COUNCIL’S ASSESSMENT OF THE INFLATION OUTLOOK WAS BROADLY UNCHANGED

Ms Schnabel started her presentation by noting that since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting on 23-24 July 2025, interest rate markets in the euro area and the United States had been pulled in different directions, leading to a convergence of policy rate expectations. In the euro area, expectations for interest rates had shifted higher, with reduced uncertainty around the rate outlook, as a consensus had formed that interest rates were currently in a “good place” and close to or at the end of the monetary policy cycle. Markets had fully priced out any rate cut at the current meeting and assigned a significantly lower probability to another 25 basis point rate cut by year-end. The median participant in the ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts anticipated no further rate cuts in 2025, while the median respondent in both the Bloomberg and Reuters surveys did not expect any further rate cut in the current cycle. In the United States, market expectations of a quicker easing cycle had increased after weak labour market data. As a result, the gap between the one-year rate one year ahead in the euro area and the United States had narrowed to its lowest level since September 2024. ECB ACCOUNTS: NO IMMEDIATE PRESSURE TO CHANGE POLICY RATES AT THE CURRENT MEETING THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINED MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL THE CURRENT SITUATION WAS LIKELY TO CHANGE MATERIALLY AT SOME POINT THERE CONTINUED TO BE A HIGH OPTION VALUE TO WAITING FOR MORE INFORMATION.… ECB's Lane proposed no rate change, as opposed to a cut ECB'S SCHNABEL SAW RISK OF SUDDEN, SHARP MARKET CORRECTIONS

Ms Schnabel started her presentation by noting that financial markets had reverted to a low-volatility, “risk-on” regime, leaving the turbulence of April 2025 behind despite further tariff-related headlines. Market volatility had receded after the short-lived spike due to tensions in the Middle East, with tariff announcements by the US Administration having recently lost traction as drivers of asset price dynamics and risk assets having rallied globally since the Governing Council’s last monetary policy meeting on 4-5 June. Meanwhile, the euro area economy appeared to be more resilient to rising tariffs and elevated trade uncertainty than anticipated. Despite a further appreciation of the euro, driven to a large extent by the reassessment of relative economic activity between the euro area and the United States, market-based inflation compensation had edged up further and the ECB forward interest rate curve had shifted higher. ECB ACCOUNTS: INTEREST RATES WERE IN BROADLY NEUTRAL TERRITORY ENVIRONMENT REMAINED EXCEPTIONALLY UNCERTAIN MOST MEMBERS VIEWED THE RISKS SURROUNDING THE INFLATION OUTLOOK AS BROADLY BALANCED MAINTAINING POLICY RATES AT THEIR CURRENT LEVELS WOULD ALLOW MORE TIME TO SEE…