EZ Main Refinancing Rate

The reasons for today's rate cut decision were clear: at 2.75%, the deposit rate was still too restrictive for a eurozone economy showing signs of bottoming out but not yet recovering. And with looming US tariffs on European goods and high geopolitical uncertainty, as well as falling headline inflation, the decision to cut interest rates again was a no-brainer. The big story for today, however, was not whether or not to cut but rather what will be next for the ECB. Here, the ECB delivered the expected change in its official ...

As was widely expected and fully priced in, the ECB cut its three key interest rates by 25bps this morning, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50% from 2.75% as the “disinflation process is well on track”. No ECB member voted for a rate hold, though the unanimous 25bps cut decision excluded Austria’s Holzmann who abstained (practically a ‘hold’). Given the cautious tone of today’s statement and Lagarde’s presser, the April decision looks like a bit higher than toss-up odds in favour of a cut that will depend on tariffs action. ...

A tectonic shift in German fiscal policy has compounded uncertainty for traders trying to bet on how fast the European Central Bank will cut rates for the rest of the year, with a change to the bank's guidance on Thursday reinforcing that. The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.50% in its sixth move since last June. But it said that monetary policy was becoming "meaningfully less restrictive," rather than the "restrictive" used before. That supported traders, who had already reduced bets on ECB rate cuts after a deal from ...

ECB President Christine Lagarde explains the Governing Council's monetary policy decisions and will answer questions from journalists at the Governing Council press conference to be held on 6 March 2025 at 14:45 CET in Frankfurt am Main.

The European Central Bank is set to cut interest rates again on Thursday in what is likely to be its last easy decision for a while as trade wars and rearmament drive the continent's biggest economic policy upheaval in decades. With the outlook shifting at a faster pace than economic models can match and its policymakers increasingly split about the need for more support, the focus will be on what signals the ECB sends about future moves. After cutting borrowing costs rapidly over the past nine months as inflation retreated and ...

Rarely if ever have European yields spiked by 30bp while Treasuries yawn. That's a breakdown right there. The market moves in Europe reflect a fundamental repricing of the eurozone outlook and are not just about increased Bund issuance. The ECB will likely give little forward guidance but may lighten the language on rates being restrictive. Remarkable moves in Europe, while the US barely budges – a metaphor for separation We can’t underestimate the enormity of recent developments. There has not been a day, practically ever, where ...

The Fed stayed put and signaled no rush in reducing rates, while the ECB cut rates and said more cuts are coming. Both as expected. The central bank meetings at the major central banks did not surprise this week. The Fed stayed put while the ECB cut rates by 25bps. In terms of forward guidance, the Fed saw no rush in moving rates at their next meetings. The ECB, on other hand signalled more cuts are coming, most likely another 25bps at the next two meetings. The difference in central bank actions and outlook is easily explainable by ...