- #23
- Apr 12, 2017 7:15am Apr 12, 2017 7:15am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: private | 2,606 Posts
just do it
- #24
- Apr 12, 2017 9:36am Apr 12, 2017 9:36am
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,942 Posts | Online Now
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
- #25
- Apr 12, 2017 10:03am Apr 12, 2017 10:03am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: private | 2,606 Posts
just do it
- #29
- Edited Apr 13, 2017 2:18am Apr 12, 2017 6:11pm | Edited Apr 13, 2017 2:18am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,112 Posts
- #30
- Edited 9:46pm Apr 12, 2017 6:45pm | Edited 9:46pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
{quote} This one is very nice but it seems to be semi automated - he hedges trades as far as i see.
All is good while you win (which using the knox divergence for entry and a small profit target is v. high) but if price moves against you, you wait for a defined period of a move against you and then look for another RSI divergence as a basis to re-enter with 3x your original position size. You either achieve a breakeven condition and save the day with your losing trades or if price continues to go south you get hit with a material loss dependent on when you exit (or if you exit) which is the sting in the tail. You can set a defined stop as a max loss condition or attempt to ride it out till price returns to the breakeven. There are variants as well to this approach (Kingfisher etc.) which Rob discusses....but in general they have the same flavour.
Scott I understand trades with $190K with total trade capital backing of $400K to make his $1K a day target....but you need cohonas to trade this. Some of Rob's group get overly excessive with trading multiple pairs using this strategy....but each to their own. I s'pose you live only once....the problem is that it is your death that defines how long you live it.
I mean....the probabilities of failure are so low....it just won't happen to me?
- #31
- Apr 13, 2017 2:14am Apr 13, 2017 2:14am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,112 Posts
I s'pose you live only once....the problem is that it is your death that defines how long you live it. I mean....the probabilities of failure are so low....it just won't happen to me?
Thanks for the info. A friend of mine has been experimenting with these "high win rate, small profit target, unlimited risk and (sometimes) add-to-losses" type of EAs. As he points out, the key is to find a way of somehow "managing the losses", which sounds easy enough in theory, especially as they are relatively rare. IMHO these systems are great for vendors, because they can win for a long time -- giving the vendor plenty of time to collect favorable testimonials from clients who believe they've found the grail -- before the runaway loss eventually strikes. Not the way I like to trade: I sleep more easily knowing that (possible) losses are contained, and the only way a big overnight move can run is in my favor........ but then each to their own. One thing's for sure, no matter what the approach, there is no such thing as return without taking some kind of risk. Trading offers a diversity of potential approaches to suit many different tastes.
- #33
- Apr 13, 2017 3:16am Apr 13, 2017 3:16am
- Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Trader | 2,299 Posts
{quote} C, Thanks for the info. A friend of mine has been experimenting with these "high win rate, small profit target, unlimited risk and (sometimes) add-to-losses" type of EAs. As he points out, the key is to find a way of somehow "managing the losses", which sounds easy enough in theory, especially as they are relatively rare. IMHO these systems are great for vendors, because they can win for a long time -- giving the vendor plenty of time to collect favorable testimonials from clients who believe they've found the grail -- before the runaway...
Could you please expand more:
" I sleep more easily knowing that (possible) losses are contained, and the only way a big overnight move can run is in my favor......."
How do you ensure that an overnight move is in your favor?
Thanks
- #35
- Apr 13, 2017 5:55am Apr 13, 2017 5:55am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: private | 2,606 Posts
just do it
- #39
- Edited 6:33pm Apr 13, 2017 2:01pm | Edited 6:33pm
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,112 Posts
What are your thoughts on this trader ...... should I buy his book. Your opinion is gold.
). I might buy the book (apparently it's $59) if I wanted some fresh ideas for trading systems, that I could potentially develop further to suit myself, regardless of how successful I believed the author might be. But that is just me.I just listened to Rob Booker's podcast interview with Mr Heywood. Didn't learn a huge amount about the details of his 'Finch' trading system. Apparently the entries are based around divergences. My first big question would be: how much of his high win rate is due to this setup providing directional bias (i.e. would it still be profitable if traded at 1:1 RR?), and how much depends on the fact that he merely lets his losses escalate until they eventually return to profit? If there's a robust directional bias then I would simply use the setup alongside my own preferred trade/risk management. Conversely, if the (alleged) edge comes from the trade management, then I would first want to see a track record of several years. Why? Because (ironically) with high win rate systems, losses are rare, and the key to survival is understanding the nature of those losses; depending on your (lack of) management, one runaway loss might be enough to cause a margin call. A system with only a few losses might not have encountered that 'black swan' loss yet, making it unjustifiably appealing to the uninitiated.
The rest comes down to your personal trading philosophy: account size, your ability to stomach drawdown, whether you prefer high or low RR strategies, etc. For example, are you planning on quitting your job and trading a serious size account, in which case a severe drawdown would be financially damaging; or are you going to start with an inconsequential amount, and just see how far you can grow it, i.e. if you hit a margin call, you could easily afford to start over? In the myfxbook link you provided, his open trades are currently down $65,000 or 26.1%. Only you can decide how you might cope with that kind of stress. Also, keep in mind that if trading is going to be your primary source of income, then (1) any hope of exponential growth toward a life changing amount is constantly being depleted by paying bills and taxes; and (2) if the trading profits are erratic (occasional losing weeks/months) then you still have to find a way of paying your bills in the interim. Added stress.
If you want some tips from a genuinely successful pro trader, I'd suggest a YouTube search for Tom Dante's videos. Tom doesn't use EAs, but he's been trading for 17 years and has been profitable for the last 10 of those, using 'textbook' risk management (cutting losses etc). He's traded in prop alongside guys who were making 100k for the firm on some days, and I expect he's learned a lot of his craft from them. Be warned, some of his language is colorful, but he's the real deal and pulls no punches.
Getting off-topic now so I'll make this my last post in this thread.
Good luck.
100% profit able EA but expired if someone can remove expiry good ea. EURUSD 1H SL50 TP200 Thanks For help
2. If software has expired, it probably means that the developer/distributor is owed (another) payment. Piracy is theft.
- #40
- Apr 14, 2017 1:20am Apr 14, 2017 1:20am
{quote} LOL, my opinion is that of a successful programmer, not a professional trader. I play with forex because I find analyzing the markets interesting, and I enjoy tinkering with trading systems; any profit from my small account is beer money (and for buying trading books