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Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #1,281
  • Dec 7, 2016 6:51am Dec 7, 2016 6:51am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (XAUUSD) 12.7.2016 (Signals on Trading Platform) (1).png Size: 59 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,282
  • Edited 7:10am Dec 7, 2016 6:52am | Edited 7:10am
The 4 Hour timeframe remains in a Long market cycle (see chart above).

Also in the chart above, notice how the market confirmed the Long market on the 4 Hour as it bounced off the 1166.56 level on the Low signal generated at 12:00 on 12/5/2016.

To invalidate the 4 hour Low signal generated at 12:00 on 12/5/2016, the market had to close below 1162.36 (i.e. breach the Long level @1162.36).

We have a new 4 Hour Low signal and a new 8 Hour Low signal (see chart below).

Caution: we remain in a Short market on the day (see chart above) while the market remains below the Short level @1183.15)
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,283
  • Dec 7, 2016 6:58am Dec 7, 2016 6:58am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (XAUUSD) 12.7.2016 (Signals on Trading Platform) (2).png Size: 66 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,284
  • Dec 7, 2016 7:07am Dec 7, 2016 7:07am
Hi Jack. Is the 12/5 daily high signal for a short entry at 1173.79 still valid? I would think yes, since it hasn't be breached. But lower tf's are signaling higher lows. This is exactly the situation where I would not enter short as per daily signal (assuming it's still valid, that is). Am I totally wrong?
  • #1,285
  • Edited 7:35am Dec 7, 2016 7:16am | Edited 7:35am
Quoting bubola
Hi Jack. Is the 12/5 daily high signal for a short entry at 1173.69 still valid? I would think yes, since it hasn't be breached. But lower tf's are signaling higher lows. This is exactly the situation where I would not enter short as per daily signal (assuming it's still valid, that is). Am I totally wrong?
You are absolutely right.

Although the Day timeframe remains in a Short market cycle while below 1183.15 (i.e. Short level) and your entry for a Short trade on this timeframe is @1173.79, you should not attempt a short entry knowing that the lower timeframes are in a Long market cycle.

Before we consider a short entry on the Day timeframe, we need to wait for the highest lower timeframe to return to a Short market which means, either:

(1) wait for a High signal, or


(2) wait for the market to breach the Low signal by closing below the Long level.

Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,286
  • Dec 7, 2016 7:19am Dec 7, 2016 7:19am
Thank you. When you get a minute, at your convenience, could you kindly reply to yesterday's email.
  • #1,287
  • Dec 7, 2016 7:22am Dec 7, 2016 7:22am
Quoting bubola
Thank you. When you get a minute, at your convenience, could you kindly reply to yesterday's email.
Yes, I will sometime later today ... sorry to keep you waiting ... too many of them to respond to.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,288
  • Dec 7, 2016 7:39am Dec 7, 2016 7:39am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} You are absolutely right. Although the Day timeframe remains in a Short market cycle while below 1183.15 (i.e. Short level) and your entry for a Short trade on this timeframe is @1173.79, you should not attempt a short entry knowing that the lower timeframes are in a Long market cycle. Before we consider a short entry on the Day timeframe, we need to wait for the highest lower timeframe to return to a Short market which means, either: (1) wait for a High signal, or (2) wait for the market to breach the Low signal by closing below the Long...
So either a high signal on H8, or an H8 close below the highest low @1167.22ish - sorry, can't read your chart, FIA is easier!!

And in this case, since we're making higher lows, I would wait for a high signal to close any long trades on H4 or H8
  • #1,289
  • Dec 7, 2016 7:44am Dec 7, 2016 7:44am
Quoting bubola
{quote} So either a high signal on H8, or an H8 close below the highest low @1167.22ish - sorry, can't read your chart, FIA is easier!!
That would be correct!

That being said, should either one of those conditions be met, we remain in a Long market cycle on this timeframe near the Low signal generated by the FIA at 8:00 on 12/5/2016.

In other words, the target for this new Short market on the 8 Hour timeframe would be the last Long market on the same timeframe (i.e. take profit @1160.42).
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,290
  • Dec 7, 2016 7:58am Dec 7, 2016 7:58am
Quoting bubola
{quote} So either a high signal on H8, or an H8 close below the highest low @1167.22ish - sorry, can't read your chart, FIA is easier!! And in this case, since we're making higher lows, I would wait for a high signal to close any long trades on H4 or H8
To answer the last part of your question with respect to your take profit on your Long trades, look at the 4 Hour chart in Post #1,281 above.

The target (take profit) for a Long market entry is always a previous short market entry.

In the case of the 4 Hour timeframe in this post, you can see your market entry which was Long @1166.56.

On the same timeframe, your entry for a short trade was @1175.13, Therefore, this level is your take profit for your Long trade.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,291
  • Dec 7, 2016 8:24am Dec 7, 2016 8:24am
I'm sorry for all these questions, but I'm trying to fully understand how to use these lines. I'm a bit confused about the take profit issue, since in your past posts you said we need to wait for a contrary signal.

What I understand is this:

1) on any given timeframe we have both high and low levels present. In this case, we use the opposite lines to a) estimate RR; b) take profit.
Should we get an opposite signal before reaching our target, trade should be closed.

2) on any given timeframe we only have either high or low. In this case we wait for opposite signal to close the trade and use higher timeframe's opposite level to estimate RR
  • #1,292
  • Dec 7, 2016 8:29am Dec 7, 2016 8:29am
Quoting bubola
I'm sorry for all these questions, but I'm trying to fully understand how to use these lines. I'm a bit confused about the take profit issue, since in your past posts you said we need to wait for a contrary signal. What I understand is this: 1) on any given timeframe we have both high and low levels present. In this case, we use the opposite lines to a) estimate RR; b) take profit. Should we get an opposite signal before reaching our target, trade should be closed. 2) on any given timeframe we only have either high or low. In this case we wait for...
You explain it even better than I!

Keep up the good work!

Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,293
  • Dec 7, 2016 8:32am Dec 7, 2016 8:32am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} You explain it even better than I! Keep up the good work!
thank you, all clear now.
  • #1,294
  • Dec 7, 2016 10:59am Dec 7, 2016 10:59am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (XAUUSD) 12.7.2016 (Signals on Trading Platform) (3).png Size: 60 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,295
  • Edited 11:45am Dec 7, 2016 10:59am | Edited 11:45am
Using the 4 hour timeframe above, we had a Long entry above 1170.78 with a Stop Loss @1170.17 (or slightly lower).

Upon entering this trade, you would have set your take profit as follows:

(1) take profit #1: on the short entry of the lower High signal generated at 00:00 on 12/6/2016 which is the Long level @1175.16, and/or


(2) take profit #2: on the short entry of the higher High signal generated at 20:00 on 12/4/2016 which is the Long level @1182.55.


Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,296
  • Dec 7, 2016 10:59am Dec 7, 2016 10:59am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (XAUUSD) 12.7.2016 (Signals on Trading Platform) (4).png Size: 60 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,297
  • Edited 7:50pm Dec 7, 2016 11:00am | Edited 7:50pm
Using the 4 hour timeframe above, we had the same Long entry above 1170.78 with a Stop Loss @1170.17 (or slightly lower).

However this time, we chose to wait for a new High signal on the 4 Hour to exit and take our profit on our long trade entry.

On the chart, you can see the Short @1180.16 and the Long @1177.66 levels for the new High signal generated by the FIA at 8:00 on 12/7/2016.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,298
  • Edited 11:50am Dec 7, 2016 11:20am | Edited 11:50am
Notice on both charts in Posts #1,294 & 1,296 above how the market has breached (i.e. closed above the Short level @1175.94) the High signal generated by the FIA at 00:00 on 12/6/2016.

The market has technically invalidated this particular High signal.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,299
  • Dec 7, 2016 11:22am Dec 7, 2016 11:22am
So now we have a lower high signal on H4 @1180.16, but in order to consider taking the short on daily tf we need to wait for H8 to give a lower high signal? Obviously if the daily closes above 1183.27 the short daily is null.
  • #1,300
  • Dec 7, 2016 11:24am Dec 7, 2016 11:24am
Quoting bubola
So now we have a lower high signal on H4, but in order to consider taking the short on daily tf we need to wait for H8 to give a lower high signal?
Correct, despite the High signal on the 4 hour timeframe, the market remains long on the 8 hour timeframe.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
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