Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi Dunstan,
very nice and informative thread.

Please don't stop posting.

Thank you very much.

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Crude Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 37%, SS – 53% /
Both of our main cot signals are bearish. We have a huge cot change signal (largest in the past 52 weeks) and we have reached a significant cot extreme level also. Of course caution is advised, these extremes can become much larger, but nevertheless, we have a bearish picture from the report.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C – 435 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bearish signal.

Lumber
COT Extreme / C – 164, LS – 166 report COT extreme /
Not an all time cot extreme like in Sugar, but still significant showing us that the rally may be over soon…

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

Hi Jannie,

Sorry for my very late reply
Cot Analysis is maninly used and gives the best resulst in swing trading or longer term trading. It is a report that is published by CFTC weekly, so it can't offer too much assistance in day to day trading... COT Change signals tend to be useful on a short term time frame --> so when you see that there was a larger change in Traders positions (you get to know this information on Friday after Market closes) in a given market, then it can take an effect on prices early next week. For better understanding, you may want to check my post on this: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...40#post5893540 or you can have a look at COTbase.com for more info (I use their service and they have got a lot of useful material on site: How to use cot analysis or On COT ).

All the best,
Dunstan

Hi everyone,

Sorry for being away for so long… I’m back again

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Crude Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 23%, SS – 47% /
Having a more or less neutral cot extreme picture in the market it is only the change signal (which is bearish) that we can act on if have to. Although it is large and visible, I would only take it into consideration if besides cot analysis my view would be bearish.

S&P-400
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is very clear and obvious, but in case of indexes, the “correlation factor” should not be neglected. It is very important to have a look at other markets as well, such as Nasdaq, Dow and the S&P-500.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Another all time cot extreme signal, now in a currency. Currencies react well to cot signals, so we can expect the GBP to move higher on this bullish signal, but (!) don’t forget that these all time cot extreme can be in the market for many weeks before anything happens.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

COT charts for Cable traders. Positioning in CME GBP futures, primarily used by CTAs, has become even more bearish during a consolidation in price. If measured in number of contracts a new ATL has been reached.

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Feeder Cattle
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 22%, SS – 8% /
The trend in FC is still bearish. We have had a bit of a rise in prices in recent weeks after the cot report was showing a bullish cot extreme, but now we have this large cot change signal that support price actions in the direction of the main trend.

S&P-500
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Last week it was only S&P-400, but now we have S&P-500 following. This just further supports the fact that stress levels in indexes are rising rapidly.

British Pound
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The all time cot extreme is still present, stress levels are rising. As I have said it last week, this picture may stay the same for many weeks or even months before we see a reaction in price.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Copper
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 31%, SS – 26% /
Although the cot change signal indicates that prices could jump up now, because of the strength of the bearish cot extreme that we had, I think we should be cautious with any buying now.

S&P-500
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture did not change from last week, let’s be patient!

Dow Jones-30
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The third index to have all time cot extreme in Large speculators positions. This definitely strengthens the cot extreme signal in general for indexes as a whole.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

It is surprising to see that CTAs have such a modest net long position in NZD/USD after the recent uptrend.

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 46%, SS – 1% /
The change in traders positions was huge! This could mean that the dollar index will fall a bit beginning of this week. The cot extreme does not show too much. I would say that it supports the continuation of the rise.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C,LS – 189 report COT extreme /
We have a very clear bearish cot extreme signal, but caution is advised, since we can easily see further increases in stress levels before the actual top comes.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C - 116, LS – 117 report COT extreme /
Similarly to Heating Oil (of course not unexpectedly due to the natural correlation between these markets), we have a bearish cot extreme that is large enough to be taken into consideration in our trading.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 29%, SS – 5% /
Bullish cot change signal and a relatively bullish extreme in the market, so we can state that the cot report definitely supports higher prices.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C – 1370 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is crystal clear: we have an all time bearish cot extreme --> expect a top soon.

Nasdaq-100
COT Extreme / C – 619 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
A very large bearish cot extreme here, but before any sudden moves, I advise you to check the other indexes as well.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS – 30%, SS – 8% /
We have a 30% bearish cot change signal – I wouldn’t act on it – and a cot extreme picture showing bullishness… I’d step aside from this market for now.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Although we’ve got an all time cot extreme, I’m not that confident that cotton will change it’s path for now. I will wait for further increase in the stress level.

Russel-2000
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
All Time cot extreme in all major participants positions, but trading indexes these days is risky business.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 40%, LS – 28%, SS – 34% /
I’m still on the sidelines here…

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
No change from last report.

Copper
COT Extreme / C – 681 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Huge, all time cot extreme here that developed very fast. I think this is a good signal that we can act upon.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

thanks for providing wonderful signals.

My pleasure

hi dunstan
is any way we can find weekly signals by cot with every pair

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Crude Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 39%, LS – 35%, SS – 13% /
COT Change signal large, maybe considered in trading decision, but the extreme can grow further, I would not act on it. To be more clear --> in the near term we can expect a decline (bearish cot change signal) but the extreme has not yet reached a level where I couldn’t see further increases.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
No change from last report.

Russel-2000
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Stress levels at record highs so we can expect the market to react. Caution is advised due to the nature of indexes.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

Hi,

I'm not sure if I understand you question... Are you referring to different currency pairs?
If you are trading for example EUR/GBP, then all you need to do is analyze EUR and GBP separately (obviously from a cot report perspective) and then make your trading decision.

All the best,
Dunstan

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 21%, LS – 17%, SS – 11% /
If you look at the 5 years long chart, you can see that maybe, just maybe the bullish cot extreme that has been present in the market for many many months now is taking an effect on Wheat. I can imagine that we might have reached a bottom and we will see further increases in prices, but the cot change signal that we got now suggests a bit of a reaction downwards.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Since the last major bullish cot extreme, prices have gone dynamically higher. The recent report shows us that Traders have gone from their most bullish extreme levels to their most bearish extreme. We may have reached a top!

S&P-400
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Stress levels at record highs, but what do the other indexes show? Because of the significant correlation between indexes, such signals should be dealt with caution.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat (Chicago)
COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS – 37%, SS – 36% /
Prices have not gone much higher since the first report came out, and we’ve just received another bearish cot change signal, this time an even greater one. Traders are dynamically moving the market towards it’s bearish extreme. Although in the long run, I am expecting much higher prices to come, there may be a reaction in the market.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture here seems to be pretty obvious: we have an all time cot extreme in the market, so we should be prepared for a change in the trend.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / LS – 236 report COT extreme /
The last time Large specs were net short, price of Cocoa was at a bottom. Although the extreme can further widen, become larger, I think that this opportunity should be carefully analyzed.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 22%, SS – 42% /
After a dynamic increase in prices during the last two weeks, we shouldn’t be surprised to see such a sudden change in Traders positions. The signal of course is bearish, but the cot extreme shows us that we can reach even higher prices the next couple of weeks, months.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C – 133 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Huge bearish cot extreme signal. Will this mean a top? The last time we were at such extreme levels, prices started to fall. Caution is advised: it would be too simple to expect history to repeat itself exactly the same way. I would be prepared for further increases.

S&P-400
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Have a look at other indexes before entering short just because we got an all time cot extreme signal here.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts