Why it is possible to predict price movement? | Page 34 | Metals Mine

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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #661
  • Nov 2, 2015 1:28am Nov 2, 2015 1:28am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} I beg to differ with as to the value of Elliot Waves.... I see this as the cycle of the market and it does work rather well. I see many traders making a killing each and every day following these simple patterns. Those who have trouble understanding this pattern are usually the ones who over complicate a very simple pattern. It's as easy as 1-2-3 or as complicated as a human can make it... and we can really FUBAR the shit out of simple things.... -CJ- {image}
Hi CJ;

Can you show how you use this on a live chart.

In hindsight we can read it perfectly but live would be a different story.

The drop from the first 3 level to the first Blue Line could also have been read as a Peak High.
  • #662
  • Nov 2, 2015 1:32am Nov 2, 2015 1:32am
Quoting Captain Jack
It's all you ever need.... BARF Bump and Run Formation -CJ- {image}
I would call that a failed setup, price didn't reverse and rallied up again
  • #663
  • Nov 2, 2015 1:38am Nov 2, 2015 1:38am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi CJ; Can you show how you use this on a live chart. In hindsight we can read it perfectly but live would be a different story. The drop from the first 3 level to the first Blue Line could also have been read as a Peak High.
Ummmm.... that is a live chart and the cycle is about to begin to the downside.... The Peak High has formed and we begin the downward cycle this week...

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #664
  • Nov 2, 2015 1:41am Nov 2, 2015 1:41am
Quoting Mag357
{quote} I would call that a failed setup, price didn't reverse and rallied up again
Price did indeed make new highs and the setup is invalidated... HOWEVER, it could have been a profitable trade depending on your trade management. Even failed setups can provide profit, or do you not protect trades in profit?

The pair is also being monitored for entry when the pattern presents again...

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #665
  • Nov 2, 2015 1:47am Nov 2, 2015 1:47am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi CJ; Can you show how you use this on a live chart. In hindsight we can read it perfectly but live would be a different story. The drop from the first 3 level to the first Blue Line could also have been read as a Peak High.
If you are trading on the lower time period, you are correct as it is the peak high of the 1st three pushes off the peak low... pushes on higher time frames are levels on lower time frames.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #666
  • Nov 2, 2015 1:50am Nov 2, 2015 1:50am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Price did indeed make new highs and the setup is invalidated... HOWEVER, it could have been a profitable trade depending on your trade management. Even failed setups can provide profit, or do you not protect trades in profit? -CJ-
Of course, but this apply to every single move of the market, but overall the setup didn't work as it should. Entry point was also very ambiguous and adjusted after the move. This barf is very dangerous setup and could easily lead to disaster. This specific case gave 3 possible false signals as I discussed in post #579. I know one single event is nothing so I will monitor the next when they present themselves.
  • #667
  • Nov 2, 2015 1:56am Nov 2, 2015 1:56am
Quoting Mag357
{quote} Of course, but this apply to every single move of the market, but overall the setup didn't work as it should. Entry point was also very ambiguous and adjusted after the move. This barf is very dangerous setup and could easily lead to disaster. This specific case only gave 3 possible false signals as I discussed in post #579.
The goal is not to make a perfect trade, the goal is to make a profitable trade. As with any trade setup, the trade must be managed. Failure to manage even the best trade setup will result in disaster.

Had I entered that trade, I would have been profitable and my goal would have been met. Apparently, you have different goals. If the setup in not for you, find another to trade. When trading my accounts I will take every BARF setup that I can find. They are money in the bank.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #668
  • Nov 2, 2015 1:59am Nov 2, 2015 1:59am
Quoting Mag357
{quote} Of course, but this apply to every single move of the market, but overall the setup didn't work as it should. Entry point was also very ambiguous and adjusted after the move. This barf is very dangerous setup and could easily lead to disaster. This specific case gave 3 possible false signals as I discussed in post #579.
Entry point is well defined as when price fails to make a new HH, and falls through the bump trend line, as drawn from bump start to the low of the bump... failure at any point negates the trade, move to the next.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #669
  • Nov 2, 2015 2:02am Nov 2, 2015 2:02am
I know practically nothing about how price values are aggregated into bars/candles but is it possible that something like fibs would work due to how they average the intervals[tick-clusters] we see on our charts[if they do, I would assume they do, how else are they calculating the spread they want to charge us]?
It probably would have been best to spend a bit reading about it before asking but it's also more a food for thought/ lazily hoping someone else has already considered it?

Hat.
I might be wrong.
  • #670
  • Edited 2:19am Nov 2, 2015 2:06am | Edited 2:19am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Entry point is well defined as when price fails to make a new HH, and falls through the bump trend line, as drawn from bump start to the low of the bump... failure at any point negates the trade, move to the next. -CJ-
Even yourself who is the master at this had doubts of which trendline was the right one as I posted in #579, and I added one more setup in the same chart that seemed to meet the requirements and failed also. So I wouldn't say that is that well defined, maybe in theory, but in live market could be very ambiguous and dangerous.
  • #671
  • Nov 2, 2015 2:18am Nov 2, 2015 2:18am
Quoting Mag357
{quote} Even yourself who is the master at this had doubts of which trendline was the right one as I posted in #579, and I added one more setup that seemed to meet the requirements and failed also. So I wouldn't say that is that well defined, maybe in theory, but in live market could be very ambiguous and dangerous.
I am far from a master... and in this case, perhaps we try to force a setup when none really exits.... either way, profit was to be made.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #672
  • Nov 2, 2015 2:31am Nov 2, 2015 2:31am
Quoting Mag357
{quote} Even yourself who is the master at this had doubts of which trendline was the right one as I posted in #579, and I added one more setup in the same chart that seemed to meet the requirements and failed also. So I wouldn't say that is that well defined, maybe in theory, but in live market could be very ambiguous and dangerous.
You must understand that the patterns being created today are creating the "congestion areas" that so many traders will use in the coming months and years... they drive price, quickly to an area and pause, this is where they are creating them...this results is poorly formed patterns... it is done for reason.

They intentionally make the charts hard to read, so you can't find perfectly formed patterns. We must learn to filter out the noise.

HOWEVER, these patterns form each and every day and people take great advantage from them. You should not dismiss BARF based upon your short and limited exposure.

-CJ-
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #673
  • Nov 2, 2015 3:30am Nov 2, 2015 3:30am
We can only tell who is in control at any given time, from this we may be able to determine which direction the market will go.
  • #674
  • Nov 2, 2015 3:55am Nov 2, 2015 3:55am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} You must understand that the patterns being created today are creating the "congestion areas" that so many traders will use in the coming months and years... they drive price, quickly to an area and pause, this is where they are creating them...this results is poorly formed patterns... it is done for reason. They intentionally make the charts hard to read, so you can't find perfectly formed patterns. We must learn to filter out the noise. HOWEVER, these patterns form each and every day and people take great advantage from them. You should...
I will also inform you to the fact that this same price pattern WILL form on every higher time period on this pair, at varying points in the future. The higher the time period, the longer for it to mature.... you can monitor for their formation well in advance.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #675
  • Nov 2, 2015 6:19am Nov 2, 2015 6:19am
This post from long ago tries to explain how they show you something but don't or try to hide something by presenting it in different ways. What they can't hide are the underlying truths... it's up to us to spot the deception... it's all about selling the lie to those who readily accept it...

-CJ-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #676
  • Nov 2, 2015 7:21am Nov 2, 2015 7:21am
Quoting gravitist
As I have tried to tell you, PRICE MOVEMENT CANNOT BE PREDICTED!!!!!!! IF IT COULD, THE MARKET WOULD NOT EVEN EXIST. But, you can't teach imbeciles anything. Later losers, try not to lose too much - your wife might just leave you for someone who is actually earning money.
Yes, you're absolutely right.... just as well I have a crystal ball
  • #677
  • Nov 2, 2015 7:58am Nov 2, 2015 7:58am
In the video below, the first 7 minutes illustrate an amazing problem traders face...Enjoy....

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"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #678
  • Nov 2, 2015 8:20am Nov 2, 2015 8:20am
Quoting VaBikePacker
In the video below, the first 7 minutes illustrate an amazing problem traders face...Enjoy.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pid0lUH467o
Same, same, but different! LOL.... yeah, like that....

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #679
  • Edited 10:50am Nov 2, 2015 10:40am | Edited 10:50am
whoever said randomness actually exists at all

whoever said the due decimal was a the best mathematical system to utilize or frame the universes energy in order to find the true patterns

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Inserted Video


get out of the cave! lol https://www.google.com/search?q=socr...80Ce7hSPROM%3A
  • #680
  • Nov 2, 2015 11:15am Nov 2, 2015 11:15am
forget thinking outside the box... obliterate the box entirely. better yet stop thinking at all.

don't be a stuck monkey! http://theosophywatch.com/2012/10/08/the-monkey-trap/
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