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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #641
  • Edited 10:59am Nov 1, 2015 10:39am | Edited 10:59am
Quoting Relativity
Just saying that I am interested in this thread and all its ramblings, but until someone steps up with some kind of scientific basis with statistics and empirical evidence, I am kinda afraid a lot of it would get almost nowhere.... Or maybe its just me.
best "scientific basis with statistics and empirical evidence" results are in actual profits!
I almost made 200% gain in 4months of trading.Was it all accidental?Don't think so.Yes mostly on fib pivots.
Goes without saying profitable trader does not sell or buy automatically even on key areas.One must wait for weakness either direction.Staying clear of major events and so on.Yes there is great deal of subjective discretion but I believe in Fibs and my profits are my evidence
I am sure Lots of expensive robots are programmed to trade profitable and that in itself means market is measurable.I am sure most of trading now is by alglos and very little human involvement.Since its designed by humans still it reacts to fibs,round numbers etc.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #642
  • Nov 1, 2015 10:51am Nov 1, 2015 10:51am
Quoting Davit
{quote} best "scientific basis with statistics and empirical evidence" results are in actual profits! I almost made 200% gain in 4months of trading.Was it all accidental?Don't think so.Yes mostly on fib pivots. Goes without saying profitable trader does not sell or buy automatically even on key areas.One must wait for weakness either direction.Staying clear of major events and so on.Yes there is great deal of subjective discretion but I believe in Fibs and my profits are my evidence
I understand where you are coming from, but I don't define actual profits as 'best'. I define actual profits as the 'final result', which of coz, is great.

My issue is to make clear of every single piece of subjective discretion going on in a profitable trader's mind, which eventually leads to yes, the actual profits. This has always been my approach and it works very well. This way, I no longer need to 'believe in' *insert method here*, but it actually works and I actually know where are its failure points.
  • #643
  • Nov 1, 2015 11:08am Nov 1, 2015 11:08am
Quoting Relativity
{quote} I understand where you are coming from, but I don't define actual profits as 'best'. I define actual profits as the 'final result', which of coz, is great. My issue is to make clear of every single piece of subjective discretion going on in a profitable trader's mind, which eventually leads to yes, the actual profits. This has always been my approach and it works very well. This way, I no longer need to 'believe in' *insert method here*, but it actually works and I actually know where are its failure points.
What I tried to convey is Yes there is statistical EDGE on Fib ratios but you as trader needs to filter this to make that edge greater.
Let me bring you an example..
CNTtrader is professional trader sharing some of his set ups trading fib harmonic patterns with great success however he always says "watching Price behavior before pressing the trigger"
Most idiots who argue fibs don't work fail to understand that given 50 examples greater % do work and add your own filter and that Edge multiplies.
Now does it matter if this could be proven or not?Well answer is really in your account!Only objective way to measure it.
There is so much more like Price coming back to median average basses of Andrews Pitch fork.Gets even more interesting when statiscally above 70% forex does not trend!!
Anyway may have said already too much here.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #644
  • Nov 1, 2015 11:15am Nov 1, 2015 11:15am
Quoting Davit
{quote} What I tried to convey is Yes there is statistical EDGE on Fib ratios but you as trader needs to filter this to make that edge greater. Let me bring you an example.. CNTtrader is professional trader sharing some of his set ups trading fib harmonic patterns with great success however he always says "watching Price behavior before pressing the trigger" Most idiots who argue fibs don't work fail to understand that given 50 examples greater % do work and add your own filter and that Edge multiplies. Now does it matter if this could be proven...
Yes the trader needs to filter out, that means 'additional rules'. What I want to make clear is that these 'additional rules' can be objective. Its just that not everyone has the luxury to get there, and I wish to shorten this learning curve (and had successfully done so). In this context, it does matter if it can be proven, if one wishes to ensure the 'additional rules' are made up not just by trial and error, but by some kind of evidence.

FYI, I use fibs and fib pivots, with 'additional rules' based off what I've found of coz, so I read you.

Actually, yes, statistically 70% trends don't run, thats one of those things. Just that how does one properly define it and measure it... its another topic altogether. All I am offering is that this kind of thing can be proven, can be measured, can be objective. So that one cuts the chase much faster.
  • #645
  • Nov 1, 2015 11:24am Nov 1, 2015 11:24am
Quoting Relativity
{quote} Yes the trader needs to filter out, that means 'additional rules'. What I want to make clear is that these 'additional rules' can be objective. Its just that not everyone has the luxury to get there, and I wish to shorten this learning curve (and had successfully done so). In this context, it does matter if it can be proven, if one wishes to ensure the 'additional rules' are made up not just by trial and error, but by some kind of evidence. FYI, I use fibs and fib pivots, with 'additional rules' based off what I've found of coz, so I read...
Brother if trading was totally objective entire nation of Nigeria would of traded forex instead of sending hoax emails.
To me Trading is an ART form.
Its not different then carpentry or painting
I am an artist and can share that drawing anything is same as trading
Lets say you want to draw a face
Helps to know basic human anatomy
Muscle structure
Positive negative space
Shading,shaping light dark interplay.
Lots of subjective things are involved but structural elements are objective.
Markets are same,There is objective structure but to make it profitable requires subjective filtering.This is why some make it and most don't.
In general only small minority is good at anything and I mean anything in everything.Watch moto racing only handful racers are on top same with concert soloists and same with great collage teachers or plumbers or electricians.
Just a note failed Artists become art critics and failed traders ask endless questions while successful ones are making money instead of talking about it.Its always the failed ones questioning everything...except themselves and their weaknesses
Anyway green pips
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #646
  • Nov 1, 2015 11:30am Nov 1, 2015 11:30am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Brother if trading was totally objective entire nation of Nigeria would of traded forex instead of sending hoax emails. To me Trading is an ART form. Its not different then carpentry or painting I am an artist and can share that drawing anything is same as trading Lets say you want to draw a face Helps to know basic human anatomy Muscle structure Positive negative space Shading,shaping light dark interplay. Lots of subjective things are involved but structural elements are objective. Markets are same,There is objective structure but to make...
BTW you got the 'brother' part wrong but nvm... haha... =) I get that alot.

I don't disagree with you. I am merely offering another way to see things, specifically the scientific way, with probabilities. Allowing room where subjectivity exists and taking it all when objectivity exists. The scientific way attempts to improve step by step and put humanity one tiny step further. Today we say this is subjective and that is subjective, perhaps as we know more in the future, things clear up and become objective. Thats how science progresses. That too, is a kind of art form.

Yes green pips.
  • #647
  • Nov 1, 2015 11:34am Nov 1, 2015 11:34am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Sorry folks, been busy.... GBPAUD is making it's Level three run, where you shall see the topping action...look for the "M" to form when it does... -CJ- {image}
Just an example of manual drawing vs automatic drawing of waves. To kinda prove a point.

This particular post from CJ is what intrigued me. After all, I had been doing waves for years, scientifically.
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  • #648
  • Nov 1, 2015 11:38am Nov 1, 2015 11:38am
Quoting Relativity
{quote} BTW you got the 'brother' part wrong but nvm... haha... =) I get that alot. I don't disagree with you. I am merely offering another way to see things, specifically the scientific way, with probabilities. Allowing room where subjectivity exists and taking it all when objectivity exists. The scientific way attempts to improve step by step and put humanity one tiny step further. Today we say this is subjective and that is subjective, perhaps as we know more in the future, things clear up and become objective. Thats how science progresses. That...
Trading can never be 100% objective because we trade ourselves
Let me give you typical situation
Trader A enters EU short at 1.10 trade goes 109.80 his SL is 109.65 and he decides lets get out now at -20pips instead of -35pips
Sounds good and logical right?
Trader B has exact same entry and SL but says to himself "I got my SL in place and going to let this play out"
and Price bounces up to 1.1075
Trader A -20pips
Trader B +70pips
Both subjective decisions with different outcomes.There is no way to make this scenario objective. There are times that it makes sense to get out before SL hit and other times does not.
This is when trader's experience of watching PA comes in.
Subjectivity also plays out on entering letting profits run or cutting them short letting losers run and panicking,feeling paralyses to make a descion hoping preying.These things are subjective elements that distinguish successful trader from failed one.
I suggest you read Turtle traders experiment when same course was taught to very bright individuals and given money to trade.They had simple rules for taking loss and profits. Most failed.....to follow direction and implement the rules....
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #649
  • Nov 1, 2015 11:48am Nov 1, 2015 11:48am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Trading can never be 100% objective because we trade ourselves Let me give you typical situation Trader A enters EU short at 1.10 trade goes 109.80 his SL is 109.65 and he decides lets get out now at -20pips instead of -35pips Sounds good and logical right? Trader B has exact same entry and SL but says to himself "I got my SL in place and going to let this play out" and Price bounces up to 1.1075 Trader A -20pips Trader B +70pips Both subjective decisions with different outcomes.There is no way to make this scenario objective. There are...
Perhaps you misunderstood me.

We trade ourselves yes. You are close to what I am trying to explain, lets use your example.

What I meant is that there has to be a objective difference between the decisions that Trader A VS Trader B. It looks subjective because we did not find ways to specifically break down their thought patterns and decision making trees in their heads. We make decisions based off what we know. What I intent to do is to expand this.

E.g. Trader A has statistical data from advanced Price Action models leading to -35 pips is better for this situation, Trader B doesn't. This could be the objective difference, the edge Trader A has but Trader B doesn't.

A trader's experience of watching PA comes in, yes this I agree. I am looking at shortening the learning curve to attain this experience.

I had read the turtles book, thank you very much. I actually agree with a lot of things within the book. Most traders fail to follow direction and implement the rules, this I agree too. What I am looking at is that there many reasons why they fail to do so, and an objective analysis of why is almost like an (scientific) autopsy in my view. One can look at Ray Barro's work regarding this.
  • #650
  • Nov 1, 2015 11:58am Nov 1, 2015 11:58am
Quoting Relativity
{quote} Perhaps you misunderstood me. We trade ourselves yes. You are close to what I am trying to explain, lets use your example. What I meant is that there has to be a objective difference between the decisions that Trader A VS Trader B. It looks subjective because we did not find ways to specifically break down their thought patterns and decision making trees in their heads. We make decisions based off what we know. What I intent to do is to expand this. E.g. Trader A has statistical data from advanced Price Action models leading to -35 pips...
Yes agree we are closer then apart on this.
Many traders would disagree but I find there is random element in the market meaning at lower TF some big order placed by huge bank can spike take you out and then price continues going intended direction without you...
In my opinion 20-40pip SL will get hit and it is stupid to place hard stop because of randomness I just mentioned.On greater TF greater then 15min this randomness becomes smaller and it gets smaller higher TF you go.
The EDGE is in my opinion how ones sees price in relation to DD and TF
To me having 70pip DD is typical but for 15TF trader is gigantic.So the EDGE is fitting your style of trading in relation to DD and SL.
Your RR obviously must be greater then your SL.Anyway that's how I trade.I am a positional trader.
green pips
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #651
  • Nov 1, 2015 12:10pm Nov 1, 2015 12:10pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Yes agree we are closer then apart on this. Many traders would disagree but I find there is random element in the market meaning at lower TF some big order placed by huge bank can spike take you out and then price continues going intended direction without you... In my opinion 20-40pip SL will get hit and it is stupid to place hard stop because of randomness I just mentioned.On greater TF greater then 15min this randomness becomes smaller and it gets smaller higher TF you go. The EDGE is in my opinion how ones sees price in relation to DD...
Well... the random element is random until 'someone' breaks down the logic if he/she finds it. I have no idea who will get this right. For now, I agree the 'big order placed by huge bank' is random due to lack of certain objective information (other than insider trading IMO).

I understand about the issue of not using hard stops, but I don't see it because of randomness. I see it more of psychological, that I am responsible to quit when I am outright wrong. This forces me to really follow and respect my trading rules (backed by hard research) in my brain a lot more.

I avoid talking in terms of pips anymore, but I get your point. I go by swing percentages, and yes, there are certain swing percentage levels that determines my SL and TP.
  • #652
  • Nov 1, 2015 12:48pm Nov 1, 2015 12:48pm
As I have tried to tell you, PRICE MOVEMENT CANNOT BE PREDICTED!!!!!!! IF IT COULD, THE MARKET WOULD NOT EVEN EXIST.

But, you can't teach imbeciles anything.

Later losers, try not to lose too much - your wife might just leave you for someone who is actually earning money.
  • #653
  • Nov 1, 2015 1:19pm Nov 1, 2015 1:19pm
Quoting gravitist
As I have tried to tell you, PRICE MOVEMENT CANNOT BE PREDICTED!!!!!!! IF IT COULD, THE MARKET WOULD NOT EVEN EXIST. But, you can't teach imbeciles anything. Later losers, try not to lose too much - your wife might just leave you for someone who is actually earning money.
Just a few comments from your recent posts:
PRICE MOVEMENT CANNOT BE PREDICTED!!!!!!!
it's basically a losing game...
Technical analysis alone will give you NO EDGE whatsoever.
TA is garbage
PRICE MOVEMENT CANNOT BE PREDICTED!
God, you morons aren't worth my time. Go ahead, blow your accounts, idiots.
Do Elliott waves work? No, they don't.
No, you can't predict breakouts.
No, you can't predict big candles. Neither can you predict small ones
Why is it possible to predict price movements?
It's not possible.Good grief! Just when I thought I'd seen every form of stupidity at FF....
Don't waste your time with it and instead pursue more useful activities. (You might want to try this.)
You are correct - Fibonacci is useless as an indicator.

Why so negative about everything regarding trading? If you're really convinced of all this, why waste your time here? If 80% of trading is psychology, you've already lost the battle by convincing yourself it can't be beat.
No reason to try convincing all the rest of us we can't win. We enjoy the battles.
Happy Trading!
  • #654
  • Nov 1, 2015 1:25pm Nov 1, 2015 1:25pm
Later losers, try not to lose too much - your wife might just leave you for someone who is actually earning money.

Sounds like a man talking from experience! Better listen up folks, it's the only worthwhile thing he's said!

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #655
  • Edited 4:19pm Nov 1, 2015 3:16pm | Edited 4:19pm
Quoting Captain Jack
I just wanted to show you some of the trades that the people in our group make each and every day.... here's one that just went from a trader who's following the Fox! Nicely done might add! All you need is price! How many of you see those numbers of pips in a month or even a year??? Not very many I would wager. -CJ- {image}

El Capitaine CJ,

I am Humbled,
I learnt from One of the Best in the Game... there were Loads of times in the Past, Many Years Ago when I dreamt of Making just 1,000 Profitable Pips a Year.... Now without making Much Noise or Boasting, I can comfortably make 10,000 Profitable Pips in Under a Week of Trading Part Time when the Charts Align, you are the One who made My Dreams Reality, I thank you from the Bottom of my Trading Heart, my bunch of Next Dreams will Certainly be about Giving up my Day Job Permanently Pretty Soon.... at this Rate.

Happy Trading Folks,

xrismak.
  • #656
  • Nov 1, 2015 3:24pm Nov 1, 2015 3:24pm
Quoting xrismak
{quote} El Capitaine CJ, I am Humbled, I learnt from One of the Best in the Game... there were Loads of times in the Past Many Years Ago when I just dreamt of Making just 1,000 Profitable Pips a Year.... Now without making Much Noise or Boasting, I can comfortably make 10,000 Profitable Pips in Under a Week of Trading Part Time when the Charts Align, you are the One who made My Dreams Reality, my Next Dream will Probably be Giving up my Day Job Permanently Pretty Soon.... at this Rate. Happy Trading Folks, xrismak.
Thanks for the kind words as always, but it was not me who made this happen. I only showed you the path I followed and you chose to make the journey, my friend.

I wish you continued success in trading as well as life.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #657
  • Edited 3:56pm Nov 1, 2015 3:35pm | Edited 3:56pm
If you use ECN broker, always best to close those trades out... you never know what kind of spikes they will throw an explain it away as "liquidity" problems. Anytime you set up an account and agree to their terms, you are basically signing away your 1st born and anything else they can take away from you... just
beware....

Also, I might add that one of those is a demo account while the other is real...

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #658
  • Nov 1, 2015 3:52pm Nov 1, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Brother if trading was totally objective entire nation of Nigeria would of traded forex instead of sending hoax emails. To me Trading is an ART form. Its not different then carpentry or painting I am an artist and can share that drawing anything is same as trading Lets say you want to draw a face Helps to know basic human anatomy Muscle structure Positive negative space Shading,shaping light dark interplay. Lots of subjective things are involved but structural elements are objective. Markets are same,There is objective structure but to make...
​
Very true.. Trading is an art and is in the eye of the beholder. There will be times when fibs will work and when price movement can be predicted... Every day is different..
  • #659
  • Nov 1, 2015 6:26pm Nov 1, 2015 6:26pm
Quoting gravitist
As I have tried to tell you, PRICE MOVEMENT CANNOT BE PREDICTED!!!!!!! IF IT COULD, THE MARKET WOULD NOT EVEN EXIST. But, you can't teach imbeciles anything. Later losers, try not to lose too much - your wife might just leave you for someone who is actually earning money.
for someone claiming they don't wish to waste any more time, you're sure wasting a lot of it typing it..
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #660
  • Nov 2, 2015 12:03am Nov 2, 2015 12:03am
Quoting dkrock
{quote} I spent a few years studying price movement and ended up finding the market equilibrium. I converted that equilibrium to view in multiple time frames in order to gain more precision in finding its apexes. I do not "predict" any faster than the market signals. I trade "live" predictions based on the current market momentum. I personally do not believe in predicting the market any further than where it currently is. I can see where changes in direction should occur, but it is only predictable as it happens. I cannot show you this technique...
I beg to differ with as to the value of Elliot Waves.... I see this as the cycle of the market and it does work rather well. I see many traders making a killing each and every day following these simple patterns. Those who have trouble understanding this pattern are usually the ones who over complicate a very simple pattern. It's as easy as 1-2-3 or as complicated as a human can make it... and we can really FUBAR the shit out of simple things....

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
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