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Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #1,001
  • May 7, 2015 8:58am May 7, 2015 8:58am
It is important to understand that from an analysis perspective, time is most relevant when using the FIA.

As such, time constitutes an important element of your trading plan.

I would also add that time is a key differentiator of my methodology.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,002
  • Edited 9:25am May 7, 2015 9:03am | Edited 9:25am
Chart #8 Post #970 above is an intraday chart http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1431007426

On the 2 Hour chart you will notice that we have Supply @1190.96.

You also notice that the market direction on the 4 Hour and 8 Hour timeframes is "Long" (i.e. a market Low is always Long).

The general rule here is that when the market is Long on a Higher timeframe we expect Supply levels to be breached on lower timeframes.

On the 8 Hour, the market is Long and the target is the Short level @1189.25 on the Day timeframe. This implies that to further advance the market must now breach this Short level which is unlikely.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,003
  • May 7, 2015 1:39pm May 7, 2015 1:39pm
where did it happen today ?
  • #1,004
  • Edited 4:19pm May 7, 2015 2:48pm | Edited 4:19pm
Quoting tripr
where did it happen today ?
Given the timeframes we have, it all happened on Chart #6 Post #970 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1670038&d=1431003240.

Firstoff, notice that the 4 Hour and 8 Hour are aligned in terms of having the same market direction, LONG. It was important to wait for these two timeframes to align before considering an entry (see previous Chart #5 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1431002056 - 4 Hour and 8 Hour did not align as they were in opposite direction so there was no entry).

Secondly, notice that the Retracement level @1180.39 (i.e. Short level) on the 4 Hour timeframe is above the Retracement level @1178.21 (i.e. Short level) on the 8 Hour timeframe.

Since the application indicates that the market direction on both these timeframes is Long, we are obviously looking at entering the market Long.

We have at least one trade setup.

The Retracement Level on the 4 Hour timeframe being the closest to the market, your entry strategy is the following:

(1) enter a pending Long near or at the 4 Hour Retracement level @1180.39,

(2) stop loss we have 3 options: (i) slightly below candlestick Low @1178.75, or (ii) slightly below Long level @1179.80 on 4 Hour timeframe, or (iii) slightly below Retracement level @1178.21 on the 8 Hour timeframe. In this case, the safest location for your stop loss is (iii).

(3) your Take Profit levels are (i) your first level is the Long level @1185.78 on the Day and ii) your second level is the Short level @1189.25 on the Day.

There obviously were more opportunities namely to go Short. The most significant being the Short opportunity as the market approached the Short level @1189.25 on the Day, provided you had the benefit of the lower timeframes.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,005
  • Edited 8:25am May 8, 2015 5:08am | Edited 8:25am
Friday May 8, 2015
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (08-05-2015) (1).PNG Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (08-05-2015) (2).PNG Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (08-05-2015) (3).PNG Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (08-05-2015) (4).PNG Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (08-05-2015) (5).PNG Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (08-05-2015) (6).PNG Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (08-05-2015) (7).PNG Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (08-05-2015) (8).PNG Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (08-05-2015) (9).PNG Size: 23 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,006
  • Edited 5:40am May 8, 2015 5:25am | Edited 5:40am
Chart #1 Post #1006 above is an intraday chart

On the 2 Hour, the market is the Consolidation zone between the Short level @1190.05 and the Long level @1185.24. There is no market direction on this timeframe (i.e. no trade setup).

On the 4 Hour, market direction is Short below 1187.71 with a Retracement level @1187.58 (i.e. Short level).

We have a trade setup on the 4 Hour as follows:

(1) Short entry between the Short level @1187.71 and the Retracement level @1187.58 (i.e. Long level),

(2) Stop Loss we have 2 options: (i) slightly above the Short level @1187.71 or (ii) slightly above the candlestick High @1188.12,

(3) Take Profit target is at or near the Long level @1183.66 on the 8 Hour timeframe.

On the 8 Hour, the market is Consolidating between the candlestick High and the candlestick Low. There is no market direction on this timeframe (i.e. no entry).

On the Day, the market is Bullish (not Long) above the Short level @1180.76 towards the Supply level @1193.80. There is no market direction on this timeframe (i.e. no entry).
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,007
  • May 8, 2015 6:02am May 8, 2015 6:02am
Chart #2 Post #1006 above is an intraday chart

The 2 Hour timeframe is now Bearish (not Short) below the Long level @1186.34 towards the Demand level @1182.08.

Higher timeframes remain unchanged.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,008
  • May 8, 2015 6:56am May 8, 2015 6:56am
Chart #3 Post #1006 is an intraday chart http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1431086072

Notice the accuracy of the Retracement level @1186.48 (i.e. the Long level) on the 4 Hour timeframe.

Technically, the market remains Short on the 4 Hour timeframe. To reverse Long, the market is required to post a new candlestick High above 1188.12.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,009
  • Edited 7:15am May 8, 2015 7:03am | Edited 7:15am
Quoting jackeollio
Chart #1 Post #1006 above is an intraday chart On the 2 Hour, the market is the Consolidation zone between the Short level @1190.05 and the Long level @1185.24. There is no market direction on this timeframe (i.e. no trade setup). On the 4 Hour, market direction is Short below 1187.71 with a Retracement level @1187.58 (i.e. Short level). We have a trade setup on the 4 Hour as follows: (1) Short entry between the Short level @1187.71 and the Retracement level @1187.58 (i.e. Long level), (2) Stop Loss we have 2 options: (i) slightly above the Short...
damn nice trade, take profit was a little before which always smart to do, but text book trade!

Somethimes really is too easy. Amazing accuracy!
  • #1,010
  • May 8, 2015 7:20am May 8, 2015 7:20am
Chart #4 Post #1006 is an intraday chart http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1431087595

At the moment, there are no trade setups on any of the timeframes.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,011
  • May 8, 2015 7:22am May 8, 2015 7:22am
Quoting airmac
{quote} damn nice trade, take profit was a little before which always smart to do, but text book trade! Somethimes really is too easy. Amazing accuracy!
Many thanks!

Good to see you have now started to read my posts ...
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,012
  • May 8, 2015 7:25am May 8, 2015 7:25am
Chart #5 Post #1006 is an intraday chart http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1431087888

On the 2 Hour, the market is Bearish below the Long level @1184.64 towards the Demand level @1183.92.

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below the Long level @1184.35 towards the Demand level @1181.14.

On the 8 Hour, market direction is Short below 1187.71 with a Retracement level @1187.60 (i.e. Long level).

We have a setup for a Short trade on the 8 Hour timeframe which reads as follows:

(1) Short entry between the Short level @1187.71 and the Long level @1187.60,

(2) Stop Loss slightly above the Short level @1187.71,

(3) Take profit at or near the Short level @1180.76 on the Day timeframe.

On the Day, the market is Bullish (not Long) above the Short level @1180.76 towards Supply level @1193.80.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,013
  • May 8, 2015 7:29am May 8, 2015 7:29am
Quoting jackeollio
Chart #5 Post #1006 is an intraday chart http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1431087888 On the 2 Hour, the market is Bearish below the Long level @1184.64 towards the Demand level @1183.92. On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below the Long level @1184.35 towards the Demand level @1181.14. On the 8 Hour, market direction is Short below 1187.71 with a Retracement level @1187.60 (i.e. Long level). We have a setup for a Short trade on the 8 Hour timeframe which reads as follows: (1) Short entry between...
Chart not showing
  • #1,014
  • May 8, 2015 7:37am May 8, 2015 7:37am
Quoting airmac
{quote} Chart not showing
I know ... site not uploading.

Should be OK now.

You should be able to see 7 charts now.

The market moved too fast for me to comment ...
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,015
  • May 8, 2015 7:46am May 8, 2015 7:46am
Daily supply so strong at 1193. Again crazy accuracy. Hu no, we took it out. Long setup in play.

Long 1180.65 stop loss below 1179.85, target at least 1194.37 H8 Short level. Jack, what weekly looks like?
  • #1,016
  • May 8, 2015 7:49am May 8, 2015 7:49am
Chart #8 Post #1006 is an intraday chart http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1431089059

On the Day, we have a Low and the market direction is Long above 1179.85 with Retracement level @1180.65.

On the Day, we have a setup for a Long trade which reads as follows:

(1) Long entry slightly above the Retracement level @1180.65,

(2) Stop Loss slightly below the Retracement level @1180.65,

(3) Take Profit is at or near the Long level on the Week @1197.92.

Note: This will be the last chart posted for the Week!
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,017
  • May 8, 2015 7:53am May 8, 2015 7:53am
Nice and H8 also established high. We know what that means hehe. So market found the LOW on the day, amazing.
  • #1,018
  • May 8, 2015 7:58am May 8, 2015 7:58am
Quoting airmac
Nice and H8 also established high. We know what that means hehe. So market found the LOW on the day, amazing.
Yes, as you can see the application correctly posted the Low on the Day.

In a Long market, we expect the market to post new highs which is exactly what is being indicated by the application on the 8 Hour timeframe "Establish High".
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,019
  • May 8, 2015 8:20am May 8, 2015 8:20am
Quoting airmac
Daily supply so strong at 1193. Again crazy accuracy. Hu no, we took it out. Long setup in play. Long 1180.65 stop loss below 1179.85, target at least 1194.37 H8 Short level. Jack, what weekly looks like?
see the chart for the Week ... Notice how we are in a Long market on the 4 Hour, the 8 Hour and the Day!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (08-05-2015) (9).PNG Size: 23 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #1,020
  • May 8, 2015 8:34am May 8, 2015 8:34am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} see the chart for the Week ... Notice how we are in a Long market on the 4 Hour, the 8 Hour and the Day! {image}
we could add to long trades, at H4 Short level.
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