Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand | Page 47 | Metals Mine

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Rick Rule – Triple Gold Demand 0 replies

how can I know supply and demand in gold 2 replies

Gold Miner - Gold future support and resistance level trade 7 replies

Attachments: Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand
Exit Attachments

Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #921
  • May 6, 2015 7:26am May 6, 2015 7:26am
Chart #4 Post #903 above http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1430914972

On the 4 Hour, market direction is Long above 1189.43 with a Retracement Level @1192.04.

We have a trade setup on the 4 Hour which reads as follows:

(1) entry between 1192.04 and 1189.43

(2) stop loss below 1188.67

(3) take profit 1197.27 (i.e. 8 Hour Short level).

On the 8 Hour, the market is Neutral (i.e. neither Long nor Short) between the Short level @1197.27 and the Long level @1192.85. The market returns momentarily Long above 1197.27 and momentarily Short below 1192.85.

The Day is in the Bearish Consolidation zone between the Short level @1197.61 and the Long level @1194.57. The target for the Bullish retracement is 1197.61.

The Week is Bearish below 1197.92 towards Demand @1165.74.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #922
  • May 6, 2015 7:52am May 6, 2015 7:52am
Quoting tripr
{quote} i guess the 8hr has reversed to long now along with the 4hr ? gold is gone baby !
Here I am assuming you are referring to Chart #3 Post #903 above.

This is a very common mistake.

Neither the 8 Hour nor the 4 Hour have reversed. A reversal implies there was a direction in the first place.

The 4 Hour was Bullish, not Long and the 8 Hour was Bearish, not Short.

Therefore, there was no direction on these timeframes!
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #923
  • May 6, 2015 7:54am May 6, 2015 7:54am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Yes, if and only if the market does retrace! Notice that the market has already come close to 8 Hour Demand and it has failed to breach it having left only 9% of the gap unfilled.
so very possible to fill the gap on the upside
  • #924
  • May 6, 2015 7:56am May 6, 2015 7:56am
Quoting airmac
{quote} so very possible to fill the gap on the upside
Yes.

The fact the market failed to breach a Demand level clearly suggests the market will bounce back.

Remember, Demand is always Bullish (not Long) and Supply is always Bearish (not Short).

You should be looking for the application to indicate market direction on lower timeframes.

In this case, you would have seen that the application indicated the market direction was Long as the market approached the Demand level.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #925
  • May 6, 2015 7:57am May 6, 2015 7:57am
Quoting jackeollio
Chart #4 Post #903 above http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1430914972 On the 4 Hour, market direction is Long above 1189.43 with a Retracement Level @1192.04. We have a trade setup on the 4 Hour which reads as follows: (1) entry between 1192.04 and 1189.43 (2) stop loss below 1188.67 (3) take profit 1197.27 (i.e. 8 Hour Short level). On the 8 Hour, the market is Neutral (i.e. neither Long nor Short) between the Short level @1197.27 and the Long level @1192.85. The market returns momentarily Long above 1197.27...
not the best risk to reward and market didn't retrace to that level, yet, I mean it came very close, 1192.51 is my low, so I could have take it, but risk to reward almost 1 to 1
  • #926
  • May 6, 2015 8:02am May 6, 2015 8:02am
Quoting airmac
{quote} not the best risk to reward and market didn't retrace to that level, yet, I mean it came very close, 1192.51 is my low, so I could have take it, but risk to reward almost 1 to 1
Very good!

Your decision to enter or not enter a trade must first and foremost always be based on Risk Reward!

That could never be overemphasized.

That being said, you must consider that the Day is in a Bearish Consolidation zone. Relative to the Day, the market is therefore in a Bullish retracement below the Short level @1197.61 and will remain Bearish until this level has been breached.

You should remain cautious of this Bullish retracement as long as the market remains below the Short level on the Day.

If you choose to enter Long as per my Post #922 above, make sure you set your take profit no higher than 1197.61.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #927
  • May 6, 2015 8:08am May 6, 2015 8:08am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Here I am assuming you are referring to Chart #3 Post #903 above. This is a very common mistake. Neither the 8 Hour nor the 4 Hour have reversed. A reversal implies there was a direction in the first place. The 4 Hour was Bullish, not Long and the 8 Hour was Bearish, not Short. Therefore, there was no direction on these timeframes!
you have assumed incorrectly...once again.
  • #928
  • May 6, 2015 8:10am May 6, 2015 8:10am
Quoting tripr
{quote} you have assumed incorrectly...once again.
Again!!!????!!!

Please tell me more.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #929
  • May 6, 2015 8:42am May 6, 2015 8:42am
Note: There will be no new chart posted before 10:00 a.m.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #930
  • May 6, 2015 9:04am May 6, 2015 9:04am
Chart #5 Post #903 above is an intraday chart http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1430921019

On the 2 Hour, the market is in the Consolidation zone between the Short level @1197.33 and the Long level @1194.66.

We have a trade setup on the 4 Hour. Please refer to Post #922 and Post #927 above for details.

Also see Post #922 above for a description of the 8 Hour and Day timeframes.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #931
  • May 6, 2015 9:05am May 6, 2015 9:05am
Quoting jackeollio
Chart #5 Post #903 above is an intraday chart http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1430921019
long between 1192.04 and 1189.43, stop loss below 1188.67 target 1197.27
  • #932
  • May 6, 2015 9:10am May 6, 2015 9:10am
Quoting airmac
{quote} long between 1192.04 and 1189.43, stop loss below 1188.67 target 1197.27
Correct.

I would also refer you to a prior cautionary note that I have posted yesterday (i.e. Post #900) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post8245354 based on the observation that we have a similar configuration on the 8 Hour timeframe (i.e. market direction is Neutral).
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #933
  • May 6, 2015 9:19am May 6, 2015 9:19am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Correct. I would also refer you to a prior cautionary note that I have posted yesterday (i.e. Post #900) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post8245354 based on the observation that we have a similar configuration on the 8 Hour timeframe (i.e. market direction is Neutral).
For market to continue, we need too get above Short on H8 level to established the high, that goes for H2 also?
  • #934
  • May 6, 2015 9:23am May 6, 2015 9:23am
Quoting airmac
{quote} For market to continue, we need too get above Short on H8 level to established the high, that goes for H2 also?

Note sure I understand.

My point as per Post #900 is that since the market failed to move above the previous candlestick High when it last moved above the Short level on the 8 Hour timeframe, it is now highly unlikely the market will continue it's move higher.

see chart #6 Post #903 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1430922249
and explanations in Post #936 below.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #935
  • Edited 9:37am May 6, 2015 9:26am | Edited 9:37am
Chart #6 Post #903 above is an intraday chart http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1430922249

We now have 2 trade setups. One on the 2 Hour and one on the 8 Hour timeframes.

On the 2 Hour, market direction is Short below 1194.66 with Retracement level @1192.05.

On the 2 Hour timeframe, your trade setups is as follows:

(1) Short entry between 1192.05 and 1194.66,

(2) Stop Loss above 1195.76,

(3) Take Profit is the Long level on the 4 Hour chart @1189.43.

On the 4 Hour, the market is Neutral (neither Long nor Short) between the Short level @1192.04 and the Long level @1189.43. The market returns momentarily Long above 1192.04 and momentarily Short below 1189.43.

On the 8 Hour, market direction is Short below 1197.27 with Retracement level @1192.85.

On the 8 Hour timeframe your trade setup is as follows:

(1) Short entry between 1192.85 and 1197.27,

(2) Stop Loss above 1197.48,

(3) Take Profit is at or near the Demand level @1185.22 on the Day.

The Day is Bearish below the Long level @1194.57 towards the Demand level @1185.22
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #936
  • May 6, 2015 9:28am May 6, 2015 9:28am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Note sure I understand. My point as per Post #900 is that since the market failed to move above the previous candlestick High when it last moved above the Short level on the 8 Hour timeframe, it is now highly unlikely the market will continue it's move higher. see chart #6 Post #903 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1430922249 and explanations in Post #936 below.
Ah so that has already happened I understand!
  • #937
  • May 6, 2015 9:30am May 6, 2015 9:30am
Quoting jackeollio
Chart #6 Post #903 above is an intraday chart http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1430922249
Short between 1192.05 and 1192.85, ret levels on H2 and H8, stop loss above 1197.27, target Demand on the on the Day
  • #938
  • May 6, 2015 9:38am May 6, 2015 9:38am
Quoting airmac
{quote} Ah so that has already happened I understand!
That is correct!
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #939
  • May 6, 2015 9:41am May 6, 2015 9:41am
Quoting jackeollio
Chart #6 Post #903 above is an intraday chart http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1430922249 We now have 2 trade setups. One on the 2 Hour and one on the 8 Hour timeframes. On the 2 Hour, market direction is Short below 1194.66 with Retracement level @1192.05. On the 2 Hour timeframe, your trade setups is as follows: (1) Short entry between 1192.05 and 1194.66, (2) Stop Loss above 1195.76, (3) Take Profit is the Long level on the 4 Hour chart @1189.43. On the 4 Hour, the market is Neutral (neither Long nor...
The 2 Hour trade setup has completed.

The 8 Hour trade setup is currently under way.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #940
  • May 6, 2015 9:48am May 6, 2015 9:48am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} The 2 Hour trade setup has completed. The 8 Hour trade setup is currently under way.
"Under way" means not retraced enough or still hasn't met the target?
0 traders viewing now