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Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #841
  • May 4, 2015 8:09am May 4, 2015 8:09am
Quoting tripr
{quote} the 8 hour should reverse too. too late though, the move is well underway. maybe it retraces for those who missed it. i'm long from 1182.80

Very good!
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #842
  • May 4, 2015 8:12am May 4, 2015 8:12am
Quoting jackeollio
Chart #5 Post #810 above http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1430744366 We now have a reversal on both the 2 Hour and 4 Hour timeframes. Positions are now Long with initial Take Profit target set at the Short level @1187.65 on 8 Hour timeframe.
I mean you posted that 9min ago and it would be impossible to be long. Was stopped out and it's not way I could be in long.
  • #843
  • May 4, 2015 8:15am May 4, 2015 8:15am
Quoting airmac
{quote} I mean you posted that 9min ago and it would be impossible to be long. Was stopped out and it's not way I could be in long.
Good point.

If you had the application, you obviously would not have missed it!

BTW, tripr is the one who said he went Long @ that level ... not me.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #844
  • May 4, 2015 8:18am May 4, 2015 8:18am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Good point. If you had the application, you obviously would not have missed it! BTW, tripr is the one who said he went Long @ that level ... not me.
hehe ok : )
  • #845
  • May 4, 2015 8:33am May 4, 2015 8:33am
Supply level on Daily crazy accurate
  • #846
  • May 4, 2015 8:38am May 4, 2015 8:38am
Quoting airmac
Supply level on Daily crazy accurate
the current price may be a good retrace level to get long with a tight s/l.( based on the last chart update)
  • #847
  • May 4, 2015 8:39am May 4, 2015 8:39am
Quoting tripr
{quote} the current price may be a good retrace level to get long with a tight s/l.
To answer your question, I will post another chart.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #848
  • May 4, 2015 8:46am May 4, 2015 8:46am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} To answer your question, I will post another chart.
post a good one Jack.
  • #849
  • May 4, 2015 8:46am May 4, 2015 8:46am
Chart #7 Post #810 above http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1430746849

This chart reads as follows:

(1) on the Day, we have a newly adjusted consolidation zone between the candlestick High @1192.01 and the candlestick Low @1180.35 which reflects current market conditions. There is no market direction on the Day,

(2) on the 8 Hour, market direction is Neutral (i.e. neither Long nor Short). The market returns momentarily Long above 1191.81 and momentarily Short below 1187.65,

(3) on the 4 Hour, market direction is Neutral (i.e. neither Long nor Short). The market returns momentarily Long above 1190.71 and momentarily Short below 1181.62,

(4) on the 2 Hour, market direction is Neutral (i.e. neither Long nor Short). The market returns momentarily Long above 1191.73 and momentarily Short below 1182.23.

In other words, the market is out of steam for the current 8 hours (i.e. until 16:00 UTC-5:00)! The market is unlikely to post a new High or a new Low during this timeframe.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #850
  • May 4, 2015 9:00am May 4, 2015 9:00am
Given Post #850 above,

(1) traders who have not entered the market yet, should remain on the sidelines until the market breaches the Supply level on the Day. In which case the market will be Long and will give us an opportunity to enter @ the retracement level,

(2) traders who have entered Long on an earlier signal, should consider taking their profits and wait until the market breaches the Supply level on the Day to re-enter.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #851
  • May 4, 2015 11:39am May 4, 2015 11:39am
Chart #8 Post #810 above http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1430757503

This is the last chart which will be posted for today.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #852
  • May 4, 2015 1:58pm May 4, 2015 1:58pm
Quoting jackeollio
Chart #8 Post #810 above http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1430757503 This is the last chart which will be posted for today.
active consolidation between 1188.82 and 1191.01. App tells me a lot of support and buyers at 1187.xx area that will be hard to break. Week also close to be bullish above 1191.01 and Day allready spend a lot of time at supply here. Indicates buying pressure. H8 1192.49 will prove to be the key area for longs. Once H8 goes long expect H4 supply to be breached, which is also daily supply and the road to 1209.49 will be cleared.
  • #853
  • May 4, 2015 2:08pm May 4, 2015 2:08pm
Quoting airmac
{quote} active consolidation between 1188.82 and 1191.01. App tells me a lot of support and buyers at 1187.xx area that will be hard to break. Week also close to be bullish above 1191.01 and Day allready spend a lot of time at supply here. Indicates buying pressure. H8 1192.49 will prove to be the key area for longs. Once H8 goes long expect H4 supply to be breached, which is also daily supply and the road to 1209.49 will be cleared.
Nice!

Technically speaking, the term Active Consolidation is actually used exclusively to describe two consecutive timeframes which are in Opposite direction, one being Long and the other being Short. The timeframes you are referring to are the Day and the Week, none of which offer market direction.

The Week is expected to remain Bearish (Bearish does not mean Short) even if the market moves above 1191.01.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #854
  • May 4, 2015 2:13pm May 4, 2015 2:13pm
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Nice! The term Active Consolidation is actually used exclusively to describe two consecutive timeframes which are in Opposite direction, one being Long and the other being Short. The timeframes you are referring to are the Day and the Week, none of which offer market direction. The Week is expected to remain Bearish even if the market moves above 1191.01.
First point is clear, but isn't the week in consolidation once we go above 1191.01? Why bearish? 44% is filled by buyers. Becauase the app says so? But than again, how do you know in advance week will still be bearish? Just want to understand.
  • #855
  • Edited 2:37pm May 4, 2015 2:18pm | Edited 2:37pm
Quoting airmac
{quote} First point is clear, but isn't the week in consolidation once we go above 1191.01? Why bearish? 44% is filled by buyers. Becauase the app says so? But than again, how do you know in advance week will still be bearish?
Should the market move above the Long level @1191.01 on the Week timeframe, the Week will be in a Bearish Consolidation. This simply means that, once the market enters the Bearish consolidation zone, we expect (does not mean anticipate) the market to breakout to the downside.

We would only take Short positions if the Day timeframe indicated the market direction was Short.

Traders need only wait for the application to tell them what direction the market is going, calculate their RRR based on which they will decide whether or not they should take the trade.

Note that a more advanced version of the application (although subscription fees apply) is available which automatically calculates your RRR and give you your Entry, Stop Loss and Take Profit levels for every trade.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #856
  • May 4, 2015 2:27pm May 4, 2015 2:27pm
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Should the market move above the Long level @1191.01 on the Week timeframe, the Week will be in a Bearish Consolidation. This simply means that, once the market enters the Bearish consolidation zone, we expect (does not mean anticipate) the market to breakout to the downside. We would only take Short positions if the Day timeframe indicated the market direction was Short. Traders need only wait for the application to tell them what direction the market is going, calculate their RRR based on which they will decide whether or not they should...
Great, so week is than in bearish consolidation. Thank you.
  • #857
  • Edited 3:37pm May 4, 2015 2:28pm | Edited 3:37pm
Quoting airmac
{quote} Great, so week is than in bearish consolidation. Thank you.
Not quite.

At the current price level the Week is Bearish (not Short) below 1191.01 towards Demand @1158.62.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #858
  • Edited 2:34pm May 5, 2015 4:38am | Edited 2:34pm
Tuesday May 5, 2015
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (05-05-2015) (1).PNG Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (05-05-2015) (2).PNG Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (05-05-2015) (4).PNG Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (05-05-2015) (5).PNG Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (05-05-2015) (6).PNG Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (05-05-2015) (7).PNG Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (05-05-2015) (8).PNG Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (05-05-2015) (10).PNG Size: 23 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #859
  • Edited 5:13am May 5, 2015 4:51am | Edited 5:13am
Chart #1 Post #859

On the 4 Hour, market Direction is Short below 1189.19 with a Retracement Level @1188.42. The Target is the Long level @1185.65 on the 8 Hour timeframe. CAUTION: if you choose to enter Short, the market is approaching the Long level on the 8 Hour timeframe and should be expected to reverse Long.

On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Consolidation zone between the Short level @1193.61 and the Long level @1185.65. There is no Direction on this timeframe.

On the Day, the market is Bearish (not Short) below 1192.26 towards 1182.80. There is no Direction on this timeframe.

On the Week, the market is Bearish (not Short) below 1191.01 towards 1158.62. There is no Direction on this timeframe.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #860
  • Edited 5:45am May 5, 2015 5:01am | Edited 5:45am
We have a trade setup on Chart #1 Post #859 as per the 4 Hour timeframe which reads as follows:

Short Entry between Retracement level @1188.42 and Short level @1189.19,

Stop Loss above 1190.09,

Take Profit near or at Long level 1185.65 on 8 Hour timeframe.

CAUTION: if you choose to enter Short, the market is approaching the Long level on the 8 Hour timeframe and should be expected to reverse Long. Technically, to be considered a Reversal, the application requires the market to make a new candlestick High above 1190.09.

Note that your Risk Reward is approximately 1:1 on this trade. I suggest you only take trades that offer a RR of at least 3:1 (i.e. your Reward is 3 times greater than your Risk) or more.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
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